Traders debate whether a divided Congress after midterms would force de-escalation
3 Sep 21 · 2d ago · 51 comments · 1 source · development 3 of 4
Some commenters speculate the rally partly anticipates a Democratic sweep of Congress that could force an end to the war and cap oil/refiner profits, while others argue Congress lacks the votes or power to compel Trump to make peace.
“My guess is it's in anticipation of a blue sweep across both houses of Congress. It'll be a divided Trump administration vs Democrat controlled Congress. They'll likely force a deescalation and end of the war.”
richizyFederal Reserve US central bankAlphabet S&P 500 company reporting Q2 earnings
Donald Trump President, referenced in war/policy debate
John Fetterman US Senator referenced in midterms discussion
The whole story postscomments the bright band is this development · numbered dots are the others · click one to jump
What people said 24 voices · best of 51 · verbatim
-
The AI buildout is driving markets higher. But there are numerous headwinds to this buildout the market is straight up ignoring. The rate of data centers coming online is slowing with delays and backlogs growing, all the inputs to building data centers are getting more expensive (chips, memory, energy, raw materials, labor, etc), hyperscalers are…
-
Because the macro environment is not bullish and there's nothing fundamentally driving today's rally. I disagree, macros are prett fine, I tend to look at ER, and guidance as a sign of things to come. So far ER for Q2 has been great, and guidance all around were beat, and raised. Fed last weds also says they see GDP increasing, and unemployment…
-
The S&P literally removes companies that are not productive and replaces them with ones that are. The whole thing is built to grow and the US is a juggernaut of innovation and growth. I get things are not rosy every minute of the day and there will be downturns, but the epic crash that is doomered on here isn’t going to happen. Covid should’ve…
-
When will people learn that the market goes up. It will always go up, literally forever. For some reason people find this hard to believe, but it's the entire point of having a stock market. The market will basically go up continuously for your entire life, and then will continue long after you die. Stop trying to time the market, that's for…
-
Tankers in general and ECO and FRO in particular are currently on sale. Might drop a bit further from here, but this is a cooling off period after a huge run (ECO is still up ~28% in the last month). The factors supporting tanker rates remain true, with no real end in sight (inefficiencies from so many closed chokepoints, countries desperate for…
-
I don’t know if it makes me a bear, but I’m selling some positions today in the one portfolio I actively manage. Right now my actively managed portfolio which is entirely ETFs is beating my Bogleheads and my Target Date fund portfolios by 2-3% points in my YTD, so I must be doing something right. I always cash out 5% of my portfolio on days when…
-
If this day was "midterms hopes" based, it sure wouldn't be the Nasdaq doing this fwiw. It'd be the equal weight S&P and small caps trying to carry because the Nasdaq just hasn't traded consistently on rate fears for a while, while it tried to come back for a couple months earlier this year, it was a bust and we've continued to move as if mega…
-
History disagrees. This whole "market only goes up" thing is an extremely recent phenomenon (since the 2008-9 crash). Huge crashes were the norm historically speaking, some being so terrible that they caused full-blown recessions in the real economy. The notion that this can't happen anymore because of insane levels of interference by governments…
-
Fetterman is an issue yes, but not as big as you fear monger. Him and the Republicans aren't a monolith either. Yes there are MAGA loyalists and war hawks, but there are also more moderate Republicans (Susan Collins, Murkowski) who have broken from Trump and voted against him. More Republicans may break from Trump further as the war drags on and…
-
This makes no sense and vastly overestimates: A) the chances Dems have of carrying the Senate (they need 52 seats to overcome Vance's tiebreaker and Fetterman who looks ready to switch parties, a tall order) B) the power of Congress to compel Trump to do literally anything C) the severity of the existing crisis, let alone the likelihood of things…
-
The unusually high earnings surprise percentage for the index is mainly due to the unusually large positive EPS surprise reported by Alphabet ($9.11 vs. $2.88) for Q2. The (GAAP) EPS actual for Alphabet for Q2 2026 included a gain of $98 billion. Excluding Alphabet, the surprise percentage for the S&P 500 for Q2 2026 would fall to 12.6% from 39.3%.
-
I definitely understand why people have negative sentiment in this market, but I really hope that the folks in here have at least stayed invested this whole time. Up 35% if you look back even just 2 years. Especially folks with a longer time horizon to retirement. I've got a friend under 30 that went cash in March and still hasn't bought back in.
-
My guess is it's in anticipation of a blue sweep across both houses of Congress. It'll be a divided Trump administration vs Democrat controlled Congress. They'll likely force a deescalation and end of the war, and put a stop to windfall profits of oil/refiner companies due to the ensuing shortage. All together these put a cap on oil profits
-
extrapolate, because GOOG isnt the only stock pulling this bullshit to make their earnings look better to mask over the HORRENDOUS FREE CASH FLOW, which you cannot account away with gimmicks and bullshit. Fuck why am I even bothering talking about accounting to someone whos probably never even looked at a balance sheet or income statement
-
The market is wishcasting, as it has been the entire time. It took the war/crisis seriously for literally a few weeks in March and that was it, now it continues to expect the crisis to end and an unprecedented oil glut tidal wave to hit any day now... as its been expecting for almost 6 months straight
-
That may happen, sure, but enough to pass a binding war resolution that forces Trump to make peace? Absolutely not. Never gonna happen. Even a blue House and Senate is gonna struggle mightily to pull together enough votes to force Trump to make peace on Iranian terms
-
Market knows that in the event of a "crash", they will be bailed out through money printing and other means. Their risk is very low to aggressively invest their money. The government will save them by punishing real wages and those not invested through inflation.
-
Not only do markets only go up in the long term, they actually also only get more resilient over time as well. The market 250 years from now will be significantly better than todays markets. We have an entire universe to conquer, that's a lot of value to unlock.
-
The last time the 30y yield hit 5.4% was the summer of 2027 Past performance is no indication for future performance. Comparing it to 2027 a bit lame too, there were other issues going on that aren't going on today. So your point is mute. Also, summer 2027?
-
The market has collapsed multiple times and never recovered multiple times in history. That that most of the developed ones haven't in the last 60 years is kind of the exception to the rule. It's a big part of why you can't get data for stock before 1920
-
Tom Lee was right saying the back half of September is going to be strong lol. Who would have thought QQQ going for a 3% day after the rate hike and diesel ATH. Market doing what the market does best, and it doesn’t make sense
-
lol or it’s muse AI tool is fantastic and people are realizing a company who has literal thousands of hours of your time spent on their platforms is going to make the best AI assistant in the market
-
"the underlying economy" is literally 10 companies spending hundreds of billions of dollars they dont have, to buy chips and AI equipment that dont provide value to 99% of people. Robust my ass
-
Why those? Not really onto the AI trade personally. It seems super sketchy with way too much competition. Plus. Most of the use cases just sound lazy to me. Interesting names though!
All 4 developments of r/Stocks investors split over AI-buildout risk as rally… →
RedditMastodon