Commenters debate whether slowdown reflects competitive pressure or pricing
1 Nov 2 6:37 PM · 5d ago · 1 article · 2 posts · 13 comments · 3 sources · development 1 of 2
Hacker News discussion surfaces competing explanations: some attribute the slowdown to competitors like OpenAI and Deepseek offering better cost-performance, others to Anthropic's recent price cuts on Opus 5.5, and still others to market saturation or companies cutting back on speculative AI spending after earlier "slomaxing" efforts.
“These figures suggest that the market should temper its expectations, at least temporarily.”
Analysis (Regenerator1) · hn ↗Anthropic AI company disclosing financialsAndrew Ross Sorkin, Lauren Hirsch, Sri Muppidi NYT reporters
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Reported in the same hours no headline names this development itself — these 1 claim were published in its stretch
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2 outlets Anthropic's growth just flattened
first by HN Best, 5d ago · also HN Frontpage
What people said 13 voices · verbatim
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> they are still clearly in the lead on coding and will continue to do well until someone definitively passes them.I think the first implying the second might be a bit of a stretch. At some point, companies are going to start looking at their AI spending and start negotiating deals. OpenAI is right behind them and Anthropic is around 8x more…
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I’m not sure it’s a binary thing that contradicts.I want AI and these companies to succeed. And I especially want new companies to succeed. But I want them to be valued far more realistically. Because if they have to be worth trillions, then there’s a real motivation to do what it takes to realize that valuation. And that’s how you birth a…
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AI growth is unlikely to be linear. We have seen a lot of hype in the last 12-18 month that give us ideas like "tokenmaxxing". But this is the same cycle that we have been before: hype -> disillusionment -> someone figures out a better way to use it -> next hype phase starts.As it stands, even the people closest to this technology have barely…
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I don't see the issue. If the market is saturated by them, the slowdown seems to indicate to me that it has reached (at least transiently) its intended audience. If the end goal is that every person on earth has a claude subscription (or whatever your choice is) then yeah that is worrying, but I don't deem that realistic.
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OpenAI's Astra released on Sept 3 and Opus 5.5 released on Sept 22.Most likely the combined revenue growth continued just as fast, but OpenAI took a lot of market share with a model that's ~as good.If true, then the current market sentiment is too pessimistic because demand for AI (and chips) has continued growing.
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Opus 5.5 came out right at the end of the quarter, September 22. I'm confident that it caused more usage growth since then. I'm sure there are a lot of people rooting for their IPO to fail but they are still clearly in the lead on coding and will continue to do well until someone definitively passes them.
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Anthropic can remove all access to their LLMs and start replicating entire software companies. Anyone relying on open weight models is at risk of a security breach from even slightly better models. It is ironic when people think Anthropic is the one without moat while they give all their data away.
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As a counterpoint I haven't seen opus doing that much better than the latest gpt models? Astra is definitely comparable to fable and sol has been as good as opus for me. So this rings a bit anecdotal and that's probably what people will be seeing affect the growth trajectory too.
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The real question is how many people haven't figured out how to use AI to make their job easier/more productive.Especially with this latest crop of models, they seem to be pretty damn competent in classic engineering rather than just software engineering.
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People tend to do wonderfully at whatever metric they're judged by. I don't think the "tokens consumed" metric was a very good one.
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Everyone is really tightening usage now because of all the slopmaxers who burned millions of dollars of tokens and achieved nothing.
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As an investor, what's the moat here? Being 6 months ahead of China's open source/weight models?
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What did they think was going to happen? Lots of people predicted exactly this progression of events.
All 2 developments of Anthropic's Q3 revenue growth slows to 45% sequentially →
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