Long Bet on Web URL Permanence Resolved After 11 Years
A 2011 wager about link rot on the internet concludes as the disputed URL remains accessible on February 22, 2022.
Conversation activity · last 24 hours peak 2/hr
Summary, timeline and people extracted by Claude from 2 items across 2 sources · 9h ago. Quotes are verbatim.
A Long Bets prediction from 2011 between Jeremy Keith and Matt Haughey wagered $1,000 on whether the URL http://www.longbets.org/601 would remain accessible at its original address after 11 years. The bet resolved on February 22, 2022, with specific technical conditions requiring the page to return an HTML document containing particular text or redirect to one that does. The wager reflects a fundamental debate about web permanence and link rot—the tendency of URLs to break over time—that has become increasingly relevant as the internet ages.
- A 2011 Long Bet between Jeremy Keith and Matt Haughey tested whether web link permanence was achievable; the resolution occurred February 22, 2022.
- Keith argued web entropy and link rot would cause URL failure; Haughey countered that mature technology enabled long-term URL stability via 301 redirects.
- The bet reflected broader questions about internet permanence and the feasibility of maintaining stable URLs across technology cycles and organizational changes.
- Long Bets serve as a mechanism for testing predictions about technology and society with financial stakes and precise, measurable success criteria.
How it unfolded
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Report Bet resurfaces on Hacker News
The original Long Bets page is posted to Hacker News, generating discussion about web permanence and the outcome of the 11-year wager.
- 233 weeks quiet
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Event Bet resolution date
On February 22, 2022, the conditions of the bet are assessed over a 24-hour window (00:01–23:59 UTC) to determine whether the URL returns the required HTML document or a valid redirect.
- 581 weeks quiet
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Event Long Bet #601 created
Jeremy Keith and Matt Haughey place an 11-year bet on whether the URL http://www.longbets.org/601 will remain accessible at its original location, with stakes of $1,000 to either Bletchly Park Trust or The Internet Archive.
What people are saying verbatim
“Cool URIs don't change”
Tim Berners-Lee · 1999 principle cited in Long Bets · Dec 31
“link rot is the entropy of the web. The probability of a web document surviving in its original location decreases greatly over time.”
Jeremy Keith, Long Bet participant · Long Bets #601
“though much of the web is ephemeral in nature, now that we have surpassed the 20 year mark since the web was created and gone through several booms and busts, technology and strategies have matured to the point where keeping a site going with a stable URI system is within reach of anyone with moderate technological knowledge.”
Matt Haughey, Long Bet participant · Long Bets #601