Analysis: Germans save €12,000+ switching gas heating to solar, heat pump
A 1KOMMA5° study finds electrified homes cost less over 25 years despite steep upfront investment.
What to know
- 1KOMMA5°'s analysis shows a €60,000 solar-battery-heat pump system saves €12,451 over 25 years versus a €10,000 gas boiler, even when financing at 5.99% interest.
- Heat pumps became Germany's top-selling heating technology in 2025 (48% market share), but Germany recently weakened its green heating law and scrapped plans to ban new fossil fuel systems.
- Commenters debate whether the savings analysis accounts for upfront cost barriers, future electricity taxes, individual household situations, and whether financing costs truly work out.
The dispute Whether the €12,451 saving is meaningful when it requires €60,000 upfront and assumes households stay 25 years and electricity costs remain stable. · positions read across 19 posts and comments
Analysis omits real barriers like upfront costs, financing burden, and how long people actually stay in homes.
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“Cool. But I don't have the money to pay the up front cost and if I take a loan for it the interest rates will eat up any amount I "saved".”
DesertSpringtime · Reddit ↗
Future electricity costs and state taxes may erase household savings despite efficiency gains.
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“The state will be taking that from the electricity bill, if all-electric is booming. Still better than oil and gas, no doubt. But the savings will not stay in the households.”
Nullkueck · Reddit ↗
Heat pump costs and suitability vary widely by household and geography; cheaper installs exist than study suggests.
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“*Looks at 1500 EUR 3.2kW heat pump that he got installed for 1500 EUR Where are you getting these numbers?”
RadicalRaid · Reddit ↗
“The electrification of the home reduces energy costs so much that even long-term installment financing is worthwhile. If you can pay off the system faster, the advantage over gas heating increases.”
Jannik Schall, Co-founder, 1KOMMA5° · Euronews
Jannik Schall Co-founder and head of product, 1KOMMA5°1KOMMA5° Clean-tech firm
Jan Rosenow Professor of energy and climate policy, Oxford University
The record 2 articles and posts · last 30 days
What people are saying 19 voices from 1 site · verbatim
- What is the actual payback period (how many years before savings exceed initial cost)?
- How will Germany's energy tax structure change if electricity demand from heating rises significantly?
- Do heat pump costs really range from €15,000 to €60,000, or do cheaper options exist in the market?
- Aug 24
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Yeah and that can be your opinion, Just admit to be wrong. but it have nothing to do with the insulation. Absolutely, it decides on the dimension of the required installation. Heating goes kWh, if you need to overdimension it, to compensate, then it's economically not viable. You can follow? It is your economy that is in your mind, which is fine…
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Yeah and that can be your opinion , but it have nothing to do with the insulation. It is your economy that is in your mind, which is fine
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"[with solar it cost] €104,542 over 25 years, based on a government subsidy of [compared to a] gas-heated equivalent [which] cost €116,993" Who do you think ends up paying for the €16,500 subsidy, motherfuckers?
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Yes and installing these are very expensive. Also for a heat pump your house needs to be insulated properly.
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There is a cap for subsidizing. While fine for single family homes, it's a bad joke for the example above. They subsidize like ~20.000€ of the 90.000€ and that's it's. I cannot pay 70.000€ for just cheaper energy. And we're just talking about the heatpump here, not even solar on top. The manufacturers and mechanics fill their pockets and…
- Aug 23
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Shop around? Often times getting a local installer is cheaper than going for the big guys who spend a lot of money advertising. The so called padding goes to funding their ad campaigns.
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And you're hoping electricity will stay as cheap as it is. But it will not. What most people are missing and unfortunately is not fitting the narrative right now in Germany is, that due to the efficiency increase less energy will be consumed. But energy tax is a big income for the state. 40 Billion at the moment if I'm not mistaken (gas and oil)…
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I guess, but a lot of the time you're not staying in your property that long and often these sorts of things don't really add to property value. The payback period would be a more useful stat I feel than the one in the headline here.
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It depends on the house. For a typical single family home, a single strategically placed unit can easily warm a 150m2 home. More if the windows are up to modern isolation standards..
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I think solar and wind are a pretty big boon regarding decarbonization. Nuclear was not killed off by renewables but more due to economic/political reasons (outside of France) because most countries just stopped building nuclear in the 70ies/80ies, long before renewables came up. You are afaik correct that modern nuclear plants are more flexible…
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1-2 units might help on a single floor , but a typical single family 2 story house will need more than 4 and even then it won't be the same quality as central heating (and require open doors/air circulation), water heating is pretty cheap, even compared to ACs with a domestic hot water heat pump (typically in basement, using external air is…
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Electricity is the most efficient heating method available. It's MUCH more efficient than either firewood, oil, or gas. Price will always depend on local infrastructure and availability, though, so not always better...
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Remember you can get 400% efficiency with heat pumps against 90% of a typical gas heater. This means the cost per heat unit would be €0.065 for gas and €0.075 per heat unit with an air-air heat pump. Still not cheaper (and heating efficiency will depend on outside temperatures), but a lot closer.
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the Haier HPM12-Nd2 is pretty nice, especially since you can control it via modbus (locally) https://github.com/st03psn/haier-modbus and this integrations also supports "heating with excess solar power".
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*Looks at 1500 EUR 3.2kW heat pump that he got installed for 1500 EUR Where are you getting these numbers?
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Yeah 6% loans aren't cheap. All of the ROI calculations assume getting rid of a working unit, If your boiler ist failing it's a much cheaper choice when you have to Invest 10k minimum no matter what. A small ~5k solar+battery investment will save you 80 a month without electric heating. A heat pump will save you money If you get a fair price. All…
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But unfortunately everyone got a brand new gas boiler because the Greeeeeens suggested going more into renewables and that sent the rightie tabloids into a frenzy
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For now. I doubt they'll be that expensive in 10 years. I doubt they're even that expensive now anymore. They're not exactly high tech so cost is driven by volume, the more volume the smaller the prices. We produce more sophisticated electronics for pennies and the raw materials for an inverter is a couple euros at most.
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Cool. But I don't have the money to pay the up front cost and if I take a loan for it the interest rates will eat up any amount I "saved".