What to know

• Kalshi's monetized weather and climate betting grew 500% in a year into a $1.1bn market.
• A new deal gives Kalshi access to Weather Company data, putting its bets inside the Weather Channel app used by 330 million people.
• Climate experts warn the platforms are 'gamifying disasters' by letting users wager on heatwaves, wildfires, coral die-off and reservoir levels.
• Kalshi argues its markets can double as well-calibrated forecasting data for the public and policymakers, a claim the company itself has not independently verified beyond its own study.

“Weather is the ultimate equalizer – it fundamentally affects everyone and everything”

Kalshi spokesperson, Company spokesperson · The Guardian · Sep 1

Tarek Mansour Kalshi co-founderKalshi Prediction market operatorPolymarket Rival prediction marketOliver Milman Guardian environment reporter