What to know

• US-Iran military strikes have driven Brent crude above $95/bbl and diesel crack spreads to record highs of ~$79/bbl, reflecting supply disruption fears.
• Global refined product markets are extremely tight with little refining slack to absorb disruptions from the Middle East and Russia.
• Strait of Hormuz flows remain above pre-war levels but rising tensions put vital transit route at risk; conflicting estimates of actual flow volumes complicate the picture.
• European natural gas and LNG markets are under pressure due to reduced exports from the Middle East amid conflict, with storage levels already below normal.

“Given disruptions to Middle East and Russian diesel exports, and with little sign of an imminent recovery, middle distillate cracks are likely to remain highly elevated and volatile.”

ING THINK economic and financial analysis, Economic analyst · ING THINK ↗

Iran Regional actorUnited States Regional actorUS Energy Secretary Energy official