Study: Climate feedback loops could amplify warming by 30% by century's end
Natural emissions from thawing permafrost and wildfires are largely missing from climate models, researchers warn.
What to know
- A new study finds natural emissions from permafrost, wildfires, and wetlands could amplify global warming by 20–30% by 2100, but are largely absent from climate models guiding policy.
- This omission means current climate projections underestimate future warming and overestimate how much carbon can still be safely emitted.
- The research emphasizes that the disruption of global carbon cycles is already visible and must be incorporated into future climate policies to meet international goals.
Sam Abernethy Lead researcher, Spark Climate SolutionsRob Jackson Study co-author, Stanford University
How it unfolded 2 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlesposts
-
2
Study co-author calls findings a 'wake-up call' for climate policy
Rob Jackson, a Stanford University scientist and study co-author, emphasized that the disruption of carbon cycles is occurring in real time and that the results must be incorporated into next-generation climate policies to meet global climate goals.
“The results are a wake-up call, and it's imperative that they be included in the next generation of climate policies.”
— Rob Jackson -
V
New evidence that wildfires are not only a consequence of climate change -- they are also accelerating it.
2 more of the top 3 · 31 posts in this stretch
-
As the planet heats up, tundras are thawing, wetlands are fermenting, and forests are succumbing to larger and more frequent wildfires. The breakdown of these natural systems is unleashing huge volumes of emissions, further intensifying warming from the burning of fossil fuels. According to new research, such feedback loops could amplify…
-
We need these things but I dont get why we wouldnt treat them as opportunities to advance our climate goals as well. Someone else mentioned nuclear and for data centers it makes sense. Build a reactor, have the data center fund some of it, and take offline old gas plants or whatever. Build a pipeline but use some of the revenue on wildfire…
-
-
1
Study finds natural emissions could amplify warming by 30%
Researchers at Spark Climate Solutions Research published findings in Environmental Research Letters showing that methane and CO2 emissions from natural sources—permafrost thaw, wildfires, wetlands, and freshwater bodies—could amplify global heating by 20–30% by century's end, adding 0.2–0.4°C to global temperatures.
“This hidden multiplier is missing from the models guiding climate policy, so those models are likely underestimating how much warming is coming.”
— Sam Abernethy -
3 outlets first by PressReader, 12d ago · also Guardian, Guardian Environment · read ↗
-
A
Remember folks - the only real doubt about climate science is whether events will happen faster and nastier than current predictions
-
What people are saying 20 voices from 2 sites · best of 36 · verbatim
- Sep 14
-
M
New study details how fires, permafrost thaw & other changes add even more greenhouse gases & speed up climate change more rapidly than modeled, creating feedback loops that could add 20 to 30 per cent more warming over current estimates 🌎
- Sep 13
-
A
Wildfires, permafrost thaw in Canada causing even more climate change, new study shows | CBC News https://www. cbc.ca/news/science/climate-fe edbacks-emissions-permafrost-wildfires-wetlands-9.7339116
-
H
The longer we wait, the severe the damage, and the harder it gets to turn things around. This is exhibit 15382 of the risk in # climateChange projections always being on the negative side. The new normal is to be always preparing for worse than expected – or worse still. https://www. theguardian.com/environment/20…
- Sep 12
-
E
Wildfires permafrost thaw adding even more greenhouse gases into atmosphere, speeding up climate change triggering feedback loops triggering more carbon emissions feeding into even more climate change, adding 20 to 30% more warming over current estimates for this century
-
C
"Lead author and Spark research scientist Sam Abernethy noted that “what surprised us was the size of the feedback.” “This research makes clear that the Earth and climate system doesn’t stand still while we debate policy,” said Brian Buma, a co-author of the new study and senior climate scientist at Environmental Defense Fund." https://www…
-
D
Wildfires, permafrost thaw in Canada causing even more climate change, new study shows https://www. cbc.ca/news/science/climate-fe edbacks-emissions-permafrost-wildfires-wetlands-9.7339116
- Sep 11
-
S
# canada These climate "feedback loops," where climate change triggers more carbon emissions that in turn feed into even more climate change, could add 20 to 30 per cent more warming over current estimates for this century https:// ici.radio-canada.ca/rci/en/new s/2282803/climate-feedbacks-emissions-permafrost-wildfires-wetlands # ClimateChange #…
-
H
Wildfires, permafrost thaw in Canada causing even more climate change, new study shows ici.
-
B
📈"Rising global temperatures caused by the burning of fossil fuels are transforming the world’s forests, wetlands and tundra to the point they are releasing emissions that could further worsen global heating by as much as 30%, a new study has found." 🚨We must act on climate change - and quickly.
-
A
New research says current climate models don’t account for warming-induced emissions (CBC)
-
R
# EarthSystem # Feedbacks : "Lead author and Spark research scientist Sam Abernethy noted that “what surprised us was the size of the # feedback . 'We found that natural systems could amplify global warming by 20-30%,' he said." # climate https://www. commondreams.org/news/climate-…
-
R
# EarthSystem # Feedbacks : "Rising global temperatures caused by the burning of fossil fuels are transforming the world’s # forests , # wetlands and # tundra to the point they are releasing # emissions that could further worsen global heating by as much as 30%" # climate "While scientists have long known of these “feedback loops” that amplify the…
- Sep 10
-
C
Your 'bonus moment of doom' for today: "should global heating melt enough of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, thaw enough permafrost, warp crucial ocean currents and turn the Amazon rainforest into a savannah, the world will career past a series of catastrophic tipping points"
-
I'm in that stage where I read this headline and thought "Whew! 30% is better than I was expecting!"
-
i hope this is not news. But why even bother quantifying it when we have no clue how this will go? This is a one-time experiment and we knew this was happening and would keep happening but pretending we know how much/when is why both Guy McPherson and Michael Mann are fucking lunatics.
-
Not to mention the fun diseases in the corpses of dead animals in the permafrost. We love to FAFO
-
O
"As the world heats up, permafrost in the high latitudes is thawing, fiercer wildfires are burning in drying forests and wetlands...All of these changes are themselves causing the release of planet-heating methane and carbon dioxide locked in trees and soils"
-
P
10-Sep-2026 New study shows unaccounted climate # feedbackLoops may amplify warming by up 20–30% this century, but cutting emissions will reduce risks Leading scientists call for incorporating overlooked warming-induced # emissions into # climatePolicy https://www. eurekalert.org/news-releases/1 142816 # science # environment # climateCatastrophe
- Sep 9
-
O
Another nasty feedback enhancing climate change. Arctic glaciers hold bakc a bunch of ancient methane stored in the rocks beneath the ice. The more glaciers melt, the more methane they are likely to release. Link: https://www. nature.com/articles/s41467-026 -77190-z # ClimateChange # Glaciers # Methane
- Sep 8
-
S
# Arctic New study raises concerns about climate feedback loop as melting Arctic glaciers flush ancient methane from rocks beneath the ice https://www. eurekalert.org/news-releases/1 142474 # ClimateChange # UpheavalClimate # ClimateInstability # ClimateReversal # MassAtrocity # pollution # ecology # environment # climate