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ClimateQuiet 12d · day 12

ECMWF models show potential Category 4 Medicane approaching Mediterranean

Forecasters flag rare Mediterranean hurricane threat for next week as warm water temperatures fuel severe storm potential.

newest coverage 11d agosummary written 11d ago3 pieces151 likes & upvotes13 comments MastodonXBluesky

What to know

  • ECMWF ensemble models forecast a potential Category 4 Medicane (Mediterranean hurricane) for next week, with a 30% probability of occurrence near Greece.
  • Unusually warm Mediterranean water temperatures are cited as the driver of this rare severe storm potential.
  • Medicanes are uncommon in the Mediterranean and their intensification to Category 4 strength is notably unexpected.

@hurricane_chase Weather forecaster

ECMWF models show potential Category 4 Medicane approaching Mediterranean
x.com

How it unfolded 2 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump posts

Peak 2 pieces in 3h at Sep 12, 4 PM; 3 pieces over 12 days (3 posts) Sep 12, 1 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — X 1Sep 12, 4 PM — 2 pieces · 2 posts — Bluesky 1, Mastodon 1Sep 12, 7 PM — quietSep 12, 10 PM — quietSep 13, 1 AM — quietSep 13, 4 AM — quietSep 13, 7 AM — quietSep 13, 10 AM — quietSep 13, 1 PM — quietSep 13, 4 PM — quietSep 13, 7 PM — quietSep 13, 10 PM — quietSep 14, 1 AM — quietSep 14, 4 AM — quietSep 14, 7 AM — quietSep 14, 10 AM — quietSep 14, 1 PM — quietSep 14, 4 PM — quietSep 14, 7 PM — quietSep 14, 10 PM — quietSep 15, 1 AM — quietSep 15, 4 AM — quietSep 15, 7 AM — quietSep 15, 10 AM — quietSep 15, 1 PM — quietSep 15, 4 PM — quietSep 15, 7 PM — quietSep 15, 10 PM — quietSep 16, 1 AM — quietSep 16, 4 AM — quietSep 16, 7 AM — quietSep 16, 10 AM — quietSep 16, 1 PM — quietSep 16, 4 PM — quietSep 16, 7 PM — quietSep 16, 10 PM — quietSep 17, 1 AM — quietSep 17, 4 AM — quietSep 17, 7 AM — quietSep 17, 10 AM — quietSep 17, 1 PM — quietSep 17, 4 PM — quietSep 17, 7 PM — quietSep 17, 10 PM — quietSep 18, 1 AM — quietSep 18, 4 AM — quietSep 18, 7 AM — quietSep 18, 10 AM — quietSep 18, 1 PM — quietSep 18, 4 PM — quietSep 18, 7 PM — quietSep 18, 10 PM — quietSep 19, 1 AM — quietSep 19, 4 AM — quietSep 19, 7 AM — quietSep 19, 10 AM — quietSep 19, 1 PM — quietSep 19, 4 PM — quietSep 19, 7 PM — quietSep 19, 10 PM — quietSep 20, 1 AM — quietSep 20, 4 AM — quietSep 20, 7 AM — quietSep 20, 10 AM — quietSep 20, 1 PM — quietSep 20, 4 PM — quietSep 20, 7 PM — quietSep 20, 10 PM — quietSep 21, 1 AM — quietSep 21, 4 AM — quietSep 21, 7 AM — quietSep 21, 10 AM — quietSep 21, 1 PM — quietSep 21, 4 PM — quietSep 21, 7 PM — quietSep 21, 10 PM — quietSep 22, 1 AM — quietSep 22, 4 AM — quietSep 22, 7 AM — quietSep 22, 10 AM — quietSep 22, 1 PM — quietSep 22, 4 PM — quietSep 22, 7 PM — quietSep 22, 10 PM — quietYesterday, 1 AM — quietYesterday, 4 AM — quietYesterday, 7 AM — quietYesterday, 10 AM — quietYesterday, 1 PM — quietYesterday, 4 PM — quietYesterday, 7 PM — quietYesterday, 10 PM — quietToday, 1 AM — quietToday, 4 AM — quiet 1–2
Sep 13Sep 14Sep 15Sep 16Sep 17Sep 18Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22now · 5:47 AM ET
  1. 2

    30% risk of Category 4 Medicane near Greece identified for next week

    A 30% probability of a Category 4 Medicane forming in front of Greece within the week is reported.

    • amturiel.bsky.social

      Hay un 30% de riesgo de tener un Medicane de categoría 4 en frente de Grecia la semana que viene:

      amturiel.bsky.socialBluesky11d ago47▲view on Bluesky ↗
    2 posts in this stretch →
  2. 1

    ECMWF ensemble model shows potential Category 4 Medicane near Greece

    Weather forecaster observes ECMWF ensemble showing a possible Category 4 Medicane, attributed to unusually warm Mediterranean water temperatures.

    “Seeing a ECMWF ensemble showing a Category 4 #Medicane is not something I expected in 2026, but it makes sense given how warm the waters are there…”
    — @hurricane_chase

    • Seeing a ECMWF ensemble showing a Category 4 #Medicane is not something I expected in 2026, but it makes sense given how warm the waters are there

      @hurricane_chaseX11d ago104▲view on X ↗

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