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AIQuiet 11d · day 12

Tabarrok: AI safety fears are sincere, not regulatory capture

Economist argues Dario Amodei's AI risk warnings predate his company and reflect genuine researcher consensus, not industry lobbying.

newest coverage 11d agosummary written 7d ago4 pieces9 likes & upvotes2 comments NewswiresHacker NewsMastodon

What to know

  • Tabarrok argues AI executives' safety warnings predate their companies, indicating genuine concern rather than marketing or regulatory strategy.
  • True regulatory capture happens gradually in backrooms over time, not through high-profile public advocacy on issues the public actively monitors.
  • AI safety fears extend beyond industry executives to rank-and-file researchers and independent scientists like Hinton, suggesting authentic concern across the field.

“Notice that classic regulatory capture takes time, it's a process of erosion rather than a battle, it happens in the shadows, in the backrooms, away from the public's eye.”

Alex Tabarrok, Economist · Marginal Revolution ↗

Alex TabarrokAlex Tabarrok Economist, Marginal RevolutionDario AmodeiDario Amodei AI executive and researcherGeoffrey HintonGeoffrey Hinton Nobel laureate computer scientist

How it unfolded 4 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlesposts

Peak 2 pieces in 3h at Sep 16, 6 AM; 4 pieces over 12 days (1 article · 3 posts) Sep 16, 6 AM — 2 pieces · 1 article · 1 post — Hacker News 1, Newswires 1Sep 16, 9 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Sep 16, 12 PM — quietSep 16, 3 PM — quietSep 16, 6 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — Hacker News 1Sep 16, 9 PM — quietSep 17, 12 AM — quietSep 17, 3 AM — quietSep 17, 6 AM — quietSep 17, 9 AM — quietSep 17, 12 PM — quietSep 17, 3 PM — quietSep 17, 6 PM — quietSep 17, 9 PM — quietSep 18, 12 AM — quietSep 18, 3 AM — quietSep 18, 6 AM — quietSep 18, 9 AM — quietSep 18, 12 PM — quietSep 18, 3 PM — quietSep 18, 6 PM — quietSep 18, 9 PM — quietSep 19, 12 AM — quietSep 19, 3 AM — quietSep 19, 6 AM — quietSep 19, 9 AM — quietSep 19, 12 PM — quietSep 19, 3 PM — quietSep 19, 6 PM — quietSep 19, 9 PM — quietSep 20, 12 AM — quietSep 20, 3 AM — quietSep 20, 6 AM — quietSep 20, 9 AM — quietSep 20, 12 PM — quietSep 20, 3 PM — quietSep 20, 6 PM — quietSep 20, 9 PM — quietSep 21, 12 AM — quietSep 21, 3 AM — quietSep 21, 6 AM — quietSep 21, 9 AM — quietSep 21, 12 PM — quietSep 21, 3 PM — quietSep 21, 6 PM — quietSep 21, 9 PM — quietSep 22, 12 AM — quietSep 22, 3 AM — quietSep 22, 6 AM — quietSep 22, 9 AM — quietSep 22, 12 PM — quietSep 22, 3 PM — quietSep 22, 6 PM — quietSep 22, 9 PM — quietSep 23, 12 AM — quietSep 23, 3 AM — quietSep 23, 6 AM — quietSep 23, 9 AM — quietSep 23, 12 PM — quietSep 23, 3 PM — quietSep 23, 6 PM — quietSep 23, 9 PM — quietSep 24, 12 AM — quietSep 24, 3 AM — quietSep 24, 6 AM — quietSep 24, 9 AM — quietSep 24, 12 PM — quietSep 24, 3 PM — quietSep 24, 6 PM — quietSep 24, 9 PM — quietSep 25, 12 AM — quietSep 25, 3 AM — quietSep 25, 6 AM — quietSep 25, 9 AM — quietSep 25, 12 PM — quietSep 25, 3 PM — quietSep 25, 6 PM — quietSep 25, 9 PM — quietYesterday, 12 AM — quietYesterday, 3 AM — quietYesterday, 6 AM — quietYesterday, 9 AM — quietYesterday, 12 PM — quietYesterday, 3 PM — quietYesterday, 6 PM — quietYesterday, 9 PM — quietToday, 12 AM — quietToday, 3 AM — quietToday, 6 AM — quietToday, 9 AM — quietToday, 12 PM — quietToday, 3 PM — quietToday, 6 PM — quiet 1–34
Sep 17Sep 18Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22Sep 23Sep 24Sep 25yesterdaynow · 9:48 PM ET
  1. 4

    Further discussion on Hacker News develops

    The essay continued to circulate and draw comments on Hacker News the following day.

  2. 3

    Mastodon users amplify the essay

    The piece spread to Mastodon, where users highlighted Tabarrok's counterargument to the regulatory capture framing.

  3. 2

    Hacker News users discuss the regulatory capture theory

    The essay was shared on Hacker News where it gained traction, generating discussion about whether AI industry safety proposals represent genuine concerns or strategic positioning.

  4. 1

    Tabarrok argues AI risk warnings are sincere, not regulatory capture

    Economist Alex Tabarrok published an essay challenging the interpretation that Dario Amodei's warnings about AI danger and proposals for safety teams constitute regulatory capture. He contends the fears are genuine because executives warned about AI risks before they had companies to promote, and the concern extends beyond industry to independent researchers.

    “Which is more likely, that a useful heuristic sometimes misfires or that "our product might kill you" is a clever way to sell it? Death threats are a poor marketing strategy.”
    — Alex Tabarrok
    1. 1 outlet What Regulatory Capture Actually Looks Like

      first by Marginal Revolution, 11d ago