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ClimateQuiet 4d · day 8

Carbon Brief: Global emissions to fall 0.5% in 2026 as Hormuz crisis cuts oil demand

US-Iran conflict has upended energy markets, driving oil demand down 2.4% despite coal use rising.

newest coverage 3d agosummary written 3d ago5 pieces43 likes & upvotes3 comments NewswiresMastodonHacker News

What to know

  • Global fossil-fuel emissions are projected to fall 0.5% in 2026 despite a 1.2% rise in coal demand, due to steep cuts in oil (2.4%) and gas (0.6%) demand caused by the Hormuz crisis.
  • The Hormuz strait disruption from the US-Iran conflict has driven oil and gas prices sharply higher throughout 2026, reversing earlier forecasts of energy demand growth.
  • The IEA dramatically revised oil demand forecasts downward—from a projected 930,000 bpd increase in January to a 2.5 million bpd decrease by September—reflecting the crisis's escalating impact.
  • While coal use is rising due to high gas prices forcing some fuel-switching, most countries lack the capacity to shift to coal at large scale, limiting this effect.
many voices

The emissions decline reflects demand destruction and reduced energy access, not genuine decarbonization progress.

  • “You can reduce GHG emissions in any one or combination of three ways: reduce the population, reduce per person energy access and/or reduce fossil intensity per unit of useful energy. The Trump admin may already be succeeding on the 2nd…”

    SeanCasten@mastodon.social · Mastodon ↗

“The US-Iran war has severely disrupted trade through the strait of Hormuz, causing a spike in oil and gas prices that continues to ripple around the global economy.”

Carbon Brief · Carbon Brief ↗

Carbon Brief Climate analysis outletInternational Energy Agency Energy forecasting organizationMorgan Stanley Financial research firm

Carbon Brief: Global emissions to fall 0.5% in 2026 as Hormuz crisis cuts oil demand
carbonbrief.org

How it unfolded 1 development · click the chart to see its coverage articlesposts

Peak 2 pieces in two hours at Sep 16, 8 AM; 5 pieces over 8 days (2 articles · 3 posts) Sep 16, 8 AM — 2 pieces · 2 articles — Mastodon 1, Newswires 1Sep 16, 10 AM — quietSep 16, 12 PM — quietSep 16, 2 PM — quietSep 16, 4 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Sep 16, 6 PM — quietSep 16, 8 PM — quietSep 16, 10 PM — quietSep 17, 12 AM — quietSep 17, 2 AM — quietSep 17, 4 AM — quietSep 17, 6 AM — quietSep 17, 8 AM — quietSep 17, 10 AM — quietSep 17, 12 PM — quietSep 17, 2 PM — quietSep 17, 4 PM — quietSep 17, 6 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Sep 17, 8 PM — quietSep 17, 10 PM — quietSep 18, 12 AM — quietSep 18, 2 AM — quietSep 18, 4 AM — quietSep 18, 6 AM — quietSep 18, 8 AM — quietSep 18, 10 AM — quietSep 18, 12 PM — quietSep 18, 2 PM — quietSep 18, 4 PM — quietSep 18, 6 PM — quietSep 18, 8 PM — quietSep 18, 10 PM — quietSep 19, 12 AM — quietSep 19, 2 AM — quietSep 19, 4 AM — quietSep 19, 6 AM — quietSep 19, 8 AM — quietSep 19, 10 AM — quietSep 19, 12 PM — quietSep 19, 2 PM — quietSep 19, 4 PM — quietSep 19, 6 PM — quietSep 19, 8 PM — quietSep 19, 10 PM — quietSep 20, 12 AM — quietSep 20, 2 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Hacker News 1Sep 20, 4 AM — quietSep 20, 6 AM — quietSep 20, 8 AM — quietSep 20, 10 AM — quietSep 20, 12 PM — quietSep 20, 2 PM — quietSep 20, 4 PM — quietSep 20, 6 PM — quietSep 20, 8 PM — quietSep 20, 10 PM — quietSep 21, 12 AM — quietSep 21, 2 AM — quietSep 21, 4 AM — quietSep 21, 6 AM — quietSep 21, 8 AM — quietSep 21, 10 AM — quietSep 21, 12 PM — quietSep 21, 2 PM — quietSep 21, 4 PM — quietSep 21, 6 PM — quietSep 21, 8 PM — quietSep 21, 10 PM — quietSep 22, 12 AM — quietSep 22, 2 AM — quietSep 22, 4 AM — quietSep 22, 6 AM — quietSep 22, 8 AM — quietSep 22, 10 AM — quietSep 22, 12 PM — quietSep 22, 2 PM — quietSep 22, 4 PM — quietSep 22, 6 PM — quietSep 22, 8 PM — quietSep 22, 10 PM — quietYesterday, 12 AM — quietYesterday, 2 AM — quietYesterday, 4 AM — quietYesterday, 6 AM — quietYesterday, 8 AM — quietYesterday, 10 AM — quietYesterday, 12 PM — quietYesterday, 2 PM — quietYesterday, 4 PM — quietYesterday, 6 PM — quietYesterday, 8 PM — quietYesterday, 10 PM — quietToday, 12 AM — quietToday, 2 AM — quiet 1
Sep 17Sep 18Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22yesterdaynow · 3:43 AM ET
  1. 1
    “Global fossil-fuel emissions are set to fall by around 0.5% in 2026 amid the fallout from the Hormuz crisis…”
    — Carbon Brief

    1. 2 outlets first by Mastodon, 7d ago · also Carbon Brief · read ↗

    • SeanCasten@mastodon.social

      You can reduce GHG emissions in any one or combination of three ways: reduce the population, reduce per person energy access and/or reduce fossil intensity per unit of useful energy. The Trump admin may already be succeeding on the 2nd front. https://www. carbonbrief.org/analysis-globa l-fossil-fuel-emissions-set-to-fall-in-2026-amid-hormuz-crisis

      SeanCasten@mastodon.socialMastodon6d ago9▲view on Mastodon ↗
    1 more of the top 2 · 2 posts in this stretch

    • Enormous drop in oil demand this year due to Trump's war in Iran. He may have accidentally accelerated the green transition (with, of course, a very heavy and deadly cost in how it's happened)

      josiah.mortimer@threads.netMastodon7d ago1▲view on Mastodon ↗
    all of them →
  2. background

    Morgan Stanley consensus forecast shows 2.4 million bpd oil demand drop — A Morgan Stanley research note found a consensus forecast of a 2,415,000 bpd drop in global oil demand for 2026, reflecting the severity of the Hormuz crisis impact.

  3. background

    IEA revises gas forecast downward amid Hormuz disruption — The IEA's July forecast shifted from a projected 2.0% rise in gas demand to a 0.6% decline for 2026, as the Hormuz crisis began affecting global energy markets.

  4. background

    IEA forecasts 930,000 bpd rise in oil demand for 2026 — The International Energy Agency's January 2026 oil market report projected a rise in global oil demand of 930,000 barrels per day in 2026.

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