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ClimateQuiet 7d · day 8

Study: climate change will boost Kerala dengue cases 16-20% by 2040

IITM research identifies rainfall, humidity and El Niño as key drivers; projects cases could surge 113% by century's end.

newest coverage 6d agosummary written 4d ago9 pieces NewswiresGoogle News

What to know

  • An IITM study projects dengue cases in Kerala will rise 16–20% by 2040 and 113% by 2100 under high-emission scenarios, driven by climate change and shifting monsoons.
  • Rainfall, humidity, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation are the primary climate drivers; El Niño years like 2026 intensify pre-monsoon warming, raising dengue risk during June–July.
  • Nearly 60% of annual dengue cases occur during the southwest monsoon season; the predictive model can anticipate dengue waves up to five months in advance with high-resolution climate data.

“Our study has found that there are many intricate and a combination of weather factors, observed both during the pre-monsoon and the monsoon seasons, that contribute to the dengue incidents reported in Kerala.”

Roxy Mathew Koll, Climate scientist, IITM Pune · Indian Express ↗

Roxy Mathew Koll Climate scientist, IITM PuneCentre for Climate Change Research (IITM) Research institution

Study: climate change will boost Kerala dengue cases 16-20% by 2040
The Hindu National

How it unfolded 2 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articles

Peak 4 pieces in two hours at Sep 16, 8 AM; 9 pieces over 8 days (9 articles) Sep 16, 8 AM — 4 pieces · 4 articles — Google News 2, Newswires 2Sep 16, 10 AM — quietSep 16, 12 PM — quietSep 16, 2 PM — quietSep 16, 4 PM — quietSep 16, 6 PM — quietSep 16, 8 PM — quietSep 16, 10 PM — 2 pieces · 2 articles — Google News 1, Newswires 1Sep 17, 12 AM — quietSep 17, 2 AM — quietSep 17, 4 AM — 1 piece · 1 article — Google News 1Sep 17, 6 AM — quietSep 17, 8 AM — quietSep 17, 10 AM — quietSep 17, 12 PM — quietSep 17, 2 PM — quietSep 17, 4 PM — quietSep 17, 6 PM — quietSep 17, 8 PM — quietSep 17, 10 PM — quietSep 18, 12 AM — quietSep 18, 2 AM — quietSep 18, 4 AM — quietSep 18, 6 AM — quietSep 18, 8 AM — quietSep 18, 10 AM — quietSep 18, 12 PM — quietSep 18, 2 PM — quietSep 18, 4 PM — quietSep 18, 6 PM — quietSep 18, 8 PM — quietSep 18, 10 PM — quietSep 19, 12 AM — quietSep 19, 2 AM — quietSep 19, 4 AM — quietSep 19, 6 AM — 2 pieces · 2 articles — Google News 2Sep 19, 8 AM — quietSep 19, 10 AM — quietSep 19, 12 PM — quietSep 19, 2 PM — quietSep 19, 4 PM — quietSep 19, 6 PM — quietSep 19, 8 PM — quietSep 19, 10 PM — quietSep 20, 12 AM — quietSep 20, 2 AM — quietSep 20, 4 AM — quietSep 20, 6 AM — quietSep 20, 8 AM — quietSep 20, 10 AM — quietSep 20, 12 PM — quietSep 20, 2 PM — quietSep 20, 4 PM — quietSep 20, 6 PM — quietSep 20, 8 PM — quietSep 20, 10 PM — quietSep 21, 12 AM — quietSep 21, 2 AM — quietSep 21, 4 AM — quietSep 21, 6 AM — quietSep 21, 8 AM — quietSep 21, 10 AM — quietSep 21, 12 PM — quietSep 21, 2 PM — quietSep 21, 4 PM — quietSep 21, 6 PM — quietSep 21, 8 PM — quietSep 21, 10 PM — quietSep 22, 12 AM — quietSep 22, 2 AM — quietSep 22, 4 AM — quietSep 22, 6 AM — quietSep 22, 8 AM — quietSep 22, 10 AM — quietSep 22, 12 PM — quietSep 22, 2 PM — quietSep 22, 4 PM — quietSep 22, 6 PM — quietSep 22, 8 PM — quietSep 22, 10 PM — quietYesterday, 12 AM — quietYesterday, 2 AM — quietYesterday, 4 AM — quietYesterday, 6 AM — quietYesterday, 8 AM — quietYesterday, 10 AM — quietYesterday, 12 PM — quietYesterday, 2 PM — quietYesterday, 4 PM — quietYesterday, 6 PM — quietYesterday, 8 PM — quietYesterday, 10 PM — quietToday, 12 AM — quiet 12
Sep 17Sep 18Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22yesterdaynow · 2:55 AM ET
  1. 2

    Roxy Mathew KollEl Niño shifts conditions toward warmer pre-monsoon

    Climate scientist Roxy Mathew Koll, co-author of the IITM study, explained that El Niño-like conditions increase dengue incidence by shifting atmospheric circulation toward warmer and drier pre-monsoon conditions over Kerala. He noted the model can predict 72% of variation in dengue cases when high-resolution climate and epidemiological data are available.

    “El Niño–like conditions increase the dengue incidence, as it shifts large‐scale circulations toward warmer and drier pre‐monsoon conditions over the state…”
    — Roxy Mathew Koll
    1. 3 outlets How climate change could reshape Kerala’s dengue threat

      first by indianexpress.com, 7d ago · also The Times of India, Indian Express

      2 more headlines
  2. 1

    Study identifies rainfall, humidity, ENSO as dengue drivers in Kerala

    The research found nearly 60% of Kerala's dengue cases occur during the southwest monsoon (June–September), with cases beginning to rise in May and peaking in June–July. Warmer temperatures of 30.5°C–32.5°C, moderate humidity of 66%–79%, and monsoon rainfall of 180–450 mm per month favour higher incidence. El Niño-Southern Oscillation was identified as a key predictor, with El Niño events raising risk more than La Niña.

    “dengue risk in Keralam could increase by 16-20% during 2021-2040 and by up to 113% by 2081-2100 under low- to high-emission pathways…”
    — The Hindu · source
    1. 2 outlets Climate change increases dengue risk in Keralam; cases may rise by 20% by 2040, says study

      first by The Hindu National, 7d ago · also The Hindu

  3. background

    IITM study projects 16–20% dengue rise in Kerala by 2040 — Centre for Climate Change Research at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology published 'Climate-informed dengue prediction and future risks under a changing monsoon climate in Keralam' in GeoHealth. Machine-learning simulations found dengue risk could increase 16–20% during 2021–2040 and up to 113% by 2081–2100 under low- to high-emission pathways.