DeepMind Institute publishes policy menu for managing AGI-driven job disruption
A new essay weighs eleven ways governments could cushion AGI's economic shock, drawing HN skepticism about whether any of them will actually be adopted.
What to know
- DeepMind Institute's essay weighs eleven policy options for managing AGI's potential economic disruption, arguing modern institutions and social science give society a better shot than during past shocks.
- The essay itself acknowledges deep uncertainty: economists currently see no definitive evidence of systemic employment or wage impacts from AI, even as anxiety about jobs grows.
- Hacker News discussion is largely skeptical that politically feasible policy will match the scale of disruption, pointing to Rust Belt regions that never recovered from earlier deindustrialization.
- Commenters connect the debate to already-occurring AI-driven layoffs, such as at Oracle, questioning what concrete help exists now rather than in future policy design.
The dispute Whether deindustrialized regions genuinely 'recover' within timeframes relevant to living people, or only over multi-century horizons that don't help anyone currently affected. · positions read across 10 posts and comments
The policies that would actually work are politically infeasible, so little will change beyond business as usual.
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“the effective policies are infeasible, and the feasible policies are largely business as usual”
jaggederest · Hacker News ↗
Past industrial disruption shows regions and workers often never recover, undercutting the essay's 'short term' framing.
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“"Short term" being rather loosely used? Most industrial regions have never recovered. Look at Gary Indiana, Detroit and surrounding towns, Toledo...”
SoftTalker · Hacker News ↗
Cities and regions do recover, just over much longer historical timescales than an individual lifespan.
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“At various periods in Paris, it's been laid to siege by viking hordes, had its population cut in half by Black Plaque, been occupied by Nazis... Still seems to have done all right over the long run of centuries.”
nonameiguess · Hacker News ↗
AI-driven productivity could realize a Marx-style abundance without requiring a workers' revolution.
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“We are moving closer to the future Marx envisioned as a utopia—not through a workers’ revolution, but through capitalist productivity.”
misano · Hacker News ↗
DeepMind Institute AI policy think tank
How it unfolded 4 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlespostscomments
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Commenters dispute essay's 'short term' framing of industrial decline
Commenters pointed to Gary, Detroit, and Toledo as regions that never recovered from deindustrialization decades later, challenging the essay's suggestion that such disruption is short-lived, while others countered that cities recover over longer historical horizons even if individuals do not benefit.
“"Short term" being rather loosely used? Most industrial regions have never recovered.”
— SoftTalker -
> Amid this uncertainty, there are at least a few reasons for hope that society can better manage a disruptive technological shock this time around. In the past, policymakers were limited by weaker and less knowledgeable institutions than we have today. Social science has made strides in understanding how technological shocks unfold and how to…
2 more of the top 3 · 8 posts in this stretch
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Not saying these places will universally recover, or even any of them will. There are plenty of secular trends pushing industry to other places. I do think decades is rightly considered short term for city history, though. At various periods in Paris, it's been laid to siege by viking hordes, had its population cut in half by Black Plaque, been…
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I think this is a very interesting topic to discuss, and its a shame there is not more detail about how each policy is implemented, or how they might interact with the many other compounding issues we are dealing with.I would love an opportunity to take my pet ideas and tune them for better scores. To take the data and run it through the AI again…
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Commenters call the essay's feasible policies 'business as usual'
Several Hacker News commenters argued that the policies effective enough to matter are politically infeasible, while the ones likely to be adopted would change little, and pressed for concrete action on AI-driven layoffs already occurring.
“the effective policies are infeasible, and the feasible policies are largely business as usual…”
— jaggederest -
My read, but the effective policies are infeasible, and the feasible policies are largely business as usual. Pretty much precisely as expected, honestly. I struggle to see how anything like this is going to be implemented without business as usual changing in ways that the current system is extremely resistant to.
1 more of the top 2 · 2 posts in this stretch
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I'd rather read an analysis from the World's Socialist Website than from the perpetrators.What are your concrete plans now for the 30,000 Oracle employees that have been fired because Larry got overly ambitious with AI?
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Essay reaches Hacker News front page
The essay was resubmitted to Hacker News, gaining 61 points and 66 comments, becoming the venue where public reaction to the essay concentrated.
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DeepMind Institute publishes AGI economic policy essay
The essay evaluates eleven policies for managing the economic disruption of increasingly advanced and pervasive AI, framing AGI as a potential break from past technology shocks because it automates cognition itself rather than routine tasks.
“This essay evaluates eleven policies societies could implement to manage the potential economic disruption arising from increasingly advanced and pervasive AI.”
— DeepMind Institute -
2 outlets Economic Policy for AGI
first by HN Frontpage, 9d ago · also DeepMind Institute
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What people are saying 5 voices from 1 site · best of 10 · verbatim
- What concrete support exists now for workers already displaced by AI, such as the roughly 30,000 Oracle layoffs cited by commenters?
- Can any of the essay's eleven policies be implemented given current political constraints, or will 'business as usual' prevail?
- Sep 17
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We are moving closer to the future Marx envisioned as a utopia—not through a workers’ revolution, but through capitalist productivity.
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Those places aren’t isolated though. Many of their residents (and especially their children) have left and found opportunities in other parts of the country.Economists tend to prefer policies that help people, not places. Gary, Indiana just doesn’t have any geographical advantages that make it competitive.I think, if anything, the mistake was to…
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It's a multifactorial problem. The decline of heavy manufacturing was one cause of economic stagnation in Detroit. But the failed progressive social policies and lack of effective law enforcement didn't help either. Businesses are hesitant to expand in areas where they can't find reliable employees and where their property isn't secure.
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> Yet in the short term, significant transformations have often also produced lower wages for many, hollowed out regional economies, and deepened inequality."Short term" being rather loosely used? Most industrial regions have never recovered. Look at Gary Indiana, Detroit and surrounding towns, Toledo, other regions that were dependant on…
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Embodied robots is the most significant threat imo. Capital can be taxed but for now we have few general policy frameworks for the "who gets to walk and drive on the street" question