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AIQuiet 9d · day 10

Rhodium Group: Chinese AI models earn just 10% of OpenAI-Anthropic revenue

A new analysis finds China's top seven AI developers generate a fraction of U.S. rivals' revenue even as some carry far higher valuation multiples.

newest coverage 9d agosummary written 9d ago7 pieces2 likes & upvotes1 comments NewswiresRedditHacker News

What to know

  • Seven major Chinese AI developers combined generated an estimated $10.7 billion in annual recurring revenue (March–August), versus more than $100 billion combined for OpenAI ($40B) and Anthropic ($65B).
  • Despite lower revenue, DeepSeek (163x) and Moonshot (50x) carry valuation-to-revenue multiples far above OpenAI's 34x and Anthropic's 21x, per Rhodium Group.
  • Rhodium warns Chinese frontier labs face a structural financing gap and depend on a Chinese equity market that has historically been volatile.
  • Several Chinese AI firms are pursuing public listings anyway: Moonshot filed confidentially for a $3 billion Hong Kong IPO, and DeepSeek is preparing a Shanghai STAR Market listing via CITIC Securities.

“All of China's AI models combined generate only about 10% of OpenAI's revenue, yet several Chinese startups carry higher valuation multiples than their U.S. rivals”

Quartz, Publication summary · Quartz ↗ · Sep 16

Logan Wright Partner, Rhodium GroupEndeavour Tian Research analyst, Rhodium GroupOpenAI US AI company, revenue benchmarkAnthropic US AI company, revenue benchmarkDeepSeek Chinese AI developerMoonshot AI Chinese AI developerZ.AI Chinese AI developer

Rhodium Group: Chinese AI models earn just 10% of OpenAI-Anthropic revenue
Seeking Alpha

How it unfolded 3 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlesposts

Peak 3 pieces in 3h at Sep 18, 4 AM; 7 pieces over 10 days (4 articles · 3 posts) Sep 17, 4 AM — 1 piece · 1 article — Newswires 1Sep 17, 7 AM — 1 piece · 1 article — Newswires 1Sep 17, 10 AM — quietSep 17, 1 PM — quietSep 17, 4 PM — quietSep 17, 7 PM — quietSep 17, 10 PM — quietSep 18, 1 AM — 1 piece · 1 article — Newswires 1Sep 18, 4 AM — 3 pieces · 1 article · 2 posts — Reddit 1, Newswires 1, Hacker News 1Sep 18, 7 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Reddit 1Sep 18, 10 AM — quietSep 18, 1 PM — quietSep 18, 4 PM — quietSep 18, 7 PM — quietSep 18, 10 PM — quietSep 19, 1 AM — quietSep 19, 4 AM — quietSep 19, 7 AM — quietSep 19, 10 AM — quietSep 19, 1 PM — quietSep 19, 4 PM — quietSep 19, 7 PM — quietSep 19, 10 PM — quietSep 20, 1 AM — quietSep 20, 4 AM — quietSep 20, 7 AM — quietSep 20, 10 AM — quietSep 20, 1 PM — quietSep 20, 4 PM — quietSep 20, 7 PM — quietSep 20, 10 PM — quietSep 21, 1 AM — quietSep 21, 4 AM — quietSep 21, 7 AM — quietSep 21, 10 AM — quietSep 21, 1 PM — quietSep 21, 4 PM — quietSep 21, 7 PM — quietSep 21, 10 PM — quietSep 22, 1 AM — quietSep 22, 4 AM — quietSep 22, 7 AM — quietSep 22, 10 AM — quietSep 22, 1 PM — quietSep 22, 4 PM — quietSep 22, 7 PM — quietSep 22, 10 PM — quietSep 23, 1 AM — quietSep 23, 4 AM — quietSep 23, 7 AM — quietSep 23, 10 AM — quietSep 23, 1 PM — quietSep 23, 4 PM — quietSep 23, 7 PM — quietSep 23, 10 PM — quietSep 24, 1 AM — quietSep 24, 4 AM — quietSep 24, 7 AM — quietSep 24, 10 AM — quietSep 24, 1 PM — quietSep 24, 4 PM — quietSep 24, 7 PM — quietSep 24, 10 PM — quietSep 25, 1 AM — quietSep 25, 4 AM — quietSep 25, 7 AM — quietSep 25, 10 AM — quietSep 25, 1 PM — quietSep 25, 4 PM — quietSep 25, 7 PM — quietSep 25, 10 PM — quietYesterday, 1 AM — quietYesterday, 4 AM — quietYesterday, 7 AM — quietYesterday, 10 AM — quietYesterday, 1 PM — quietYesterday, 4 PM — quietYesterday, 7 PM — quietYesterday, 10 PM — quietToday, 1 AM — quietToday, 4 AM — quietToday, 7 AM — quietToday, 10 AM — quietToday, 1 PM — quiet 1–23
Sep 18Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22Sep 23Sep 24Sep 25yesterdaynow · 3:49 PM ET
  1. background

    Financial and tech outlets amplify Rhodium's revenue-gap findings — SCMP, Seeking Alpha and other outlets republished Rhodium's figures, reiterating that ByteDance led Chinese ARR at $4 billion (as of July) and Alibaba followed at $2.4 billion (as of August), against the $100 billion-plus combined for OpenAI and Anthropic.

  2. 3

    Moonshot and DeepSeek advance separate IPO plans

    Moonshot filed confidentially for a Hong Kong IPO targeting $3 billion, while DeepSeek engaged CITIC Securities to prepare a listing on Shanghai's STAR Market, both according to Reuters reporting cited in coverage of the Rhodium report.

  3. 1

    Rhodium's Logan Wright warns of structural financing gap for Chinese labs

    Report co-author Logan Wright said the disparity between funding and revenue leaves Chinese frontier AI labs dependent on favorable domestic equity markets to scale, which he called historically unreliable.

    “The financing gap means it will be far more difficult for Chinese frontier AI labs to scale sustainably. They will be heavily dependent upon a favorable climate in the equity market — historically that's not an easy bet in China.”
    — Logan Wright
  4. background

    Report flags valuation multiples far exceeding revenue for some Chinese labs — Rhodium estimated Moonshot carries a valuation-to-revenue ratio of 50x and DeepSeek 163x, both well above OpenAI's 34x and Anthropic's 21x, prompting the firm to call the pricing excessive.

  5. 2

    Rhodium Group publishes revenue comparison of Chinese and US AI firms

    Rhodium Group's report, using annualized recurring revenue, found China's seven major AI developers (DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, Z.ai, MiniMax, Alibaba, ByteDance, Kuaishou) earned a combined $10.7 billion in ARR, versus $40 billion for OpenAI and $65 billion for Anthropic.

    “OpenAI and Anthropic are making 10 times more revenue than all Chinese AI models combined…”
    — CNBC

    1. 1 outlet first by CNBC, 10d ago · read ↗

  6. background

    Z.AI tells investors its ARR is $1.8 billion, raises year-end target — Z.AI disclosed to investors that its annual recurring revenue reached $1.8 billion and raised its year-end ARR target to $3 billion from a prior $2.4 billion projection, according to a transcript seen by CNBC.

Also covered reported alongside — the timeline has no entry for these yet

  1. 2 outlets Chinese AI models fetch fraction of OpenAI, Anthropic revenue despite lower costs: report

    first by Seeking Alpha, 9d ago · also SCMP

    1 more headline

and 1 smaller piece