California's Prop 40 billionaire wealth tax loses ground as vote nears
Nobel-winning economists back the 5% one-time levy, but a new poll shows support sliding to 45% amid billionaire-funded opposition.
What to know
- Prop 40 would impose a one-time 5% tax on wealth above $1 billion, with 90% of proceeds earmarked for healthcare to offset federal Medicaid cuts under H.R. 1.
- Support has slipped: a PPIC poll on Sept. 16 found 52% backing, but a new Citrin Center-POLITICO poll released Sept. 22 puts support at just 45%.
- Six Nobel-winning economists (Krugman, Stiglitz, Duflo, Acemoglu, Banerjee, Diamond) publicly endorsed the measure, while a billionaire-funded, bipartisan coalition including Sergey Brin fights it.
- Even if Prop 40 passes, competing measures on the same ballot (Props 41 and 42), which also draw majority support in polling, could nullify it.
The dispute Whether the tax will actually drive billionaires and their tax revenue out of California, versus economists' claims that flight effects will be minimal. · positions read across 17 posts and comments
Billionaires benefit disproportionately from public infrastructure and should be taxed more heavily.
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“Just bring back pre-Regan tax codes and apply it to borrowing against things like stocks. Billionaire don't improve the economy, they just siphon from it.”
jtrain3783 · Reddit ↗
Government cannot be trusted with more revenue, and the tax is already driving billionaires out of the state.
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“What obligations? We're talking about the most brazenly, openly corrupt governments we've ever seen, and yet people want to siphon even more money to the gov't?”
Sensanaty · Reddit ↗
The Nobel economists' letter overstates consensus and omits dissenting laureates.
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“Now show the number of Nobel prize economists who didn't sign Zucman's letter! Given there are 60 to 65 of them, sure is interesting they didn't show the summary statistics.”
EconomistWithaD · Reddit ↗
Gabriel Zucman Economist, architect of the wealth-tax letter
Sergey Brin Google co-founderJoshua Rauh Stanford economist, Hoover Institution researcherSacramento Bee / McClatchy editorial board Newspaper editorial boardNobel laureate economists (Duflo, Krugman, Diamond, Banerjee, Acemoglu, Stiglitz) Signatories of a public letter
How it unfolded 7 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlesvideospostscomments
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New poll shows Prop 40 support dropping below half
A UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research-POLITICO poll found only 45% of registered voters now support Prop 40, a decline from the earlier PPIC poll's 52%.
“That # Google co-founder # Brin has spent over 100 million dollars to defeat Prop 40 is all you need to know to vote for it.”
— CindyWeinstein, Mastodon user · source -
first by The Hill, 2d ago
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A bunch of Nobel Prize-winning economists have endorsed California's proposed billionaire wealth tax. I can't oppose them on authority. But I know some academics who can.
2 more of the top 3 · 4 posts in this stretch
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That # Google co-founder # Brin has spent over 100 million dollars to defeat Prop 40 is all you need to know to vote for it. Here is the endorsement from the Sacramento Bee. "We agree that Washington should fix Medicaid funding, and we agree Sacramento should develop a better tax system. But neither government has done so, and no opponent who met…
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You know what? If someone has $1 billion in assets subject to California's Prop 40 tax of 5%, at the end of the day, they'll still have $950 million. Tax the (really) rich.
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Sacramento Bee editorial board endorses Prop 40
McClatchy's California editorial board voted, not unanimously, to endorse Prop 40, arguing it would offset federal Medicaid cuts under H.R. 1 even though opponents presented no funded alternative.
“No opponent who met with our editorial board presented a funded alternative to Prop. 40.”
— Sacramento Bee editorial board -
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Washington Times reports bipartisan coalition fighting the tax
A coalition of business leaders and politicians is campaigning against Prop 40, warning it could push tech companies and other employers out of California; the report cites the measure polling ahead by 6 points.
“12 Billionaires have already left and we haven't even voted yet. It appears to be working.”
— DMReader, Reddit commenter · source -
first by Washington Times, 2d ago
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FT.com: Nobel economists throw support behind California billionaire tax — “Contrary to the claims of its opponents, taxing billionaires will not doom Silicon Valley, quite the opposite” Silicon Valley was doing fine 25 years ago without these pig-fucking billionaires. It doesn't need billionaires.
2 more of the top 3 · 6 posts in this stretch
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Which is the loophole that needs closing. When you use an asset as collateral for a loan you should be forced to pay the capital gains tax on that asset. If you want to be nice to people, exclude their primary home up to a value of a million or so and its pretty much solely a problem for the rich.
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This is a bit of a short sighted position as there are a number of necessary long term investments which only the state can make. Ever noticed how poor countries tend to have smaller governments.
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- 1 day quiet
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FT reports on Nobel economists' endorsement
The Financial Times covers the laureates' letter, reporting their argument that the tax would not damage Silicon Valley's competitiveness.
“Contrary to the claims of its opponents, taxing billionaires will not doom Silicon Valley, quite the opposite…”
— Nobel economists (via FT) -
first by Financial Times, 4d ago · also HN Frontpage, Straits Times, Investing.com News, Reuters, FT
2 more headlines
- Economics Nobel Laureates' Letter Supporting the California Billionaire Tax [pdf] HN Frontpage · 4d ago
- Billionaires abound in California. Why not tax their wealth? Straits Times · 4d ago
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Really great to see this: six Nobel Prize-winning economists (Duflo, Krugman, Diamond, Banerjee, Acemoglu and Stiglitz) just came out in favor of the California billionaire tax. You don't have to be a radical leftist to see why it's a good idea. First, look at the numbers: ten
2 more of the top 3 · 6 posts in this stretch
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well known to be outliers when it comes to wealth research and wealth taxation Economics, as a field, is an extreme outlier when it comes to the fact that the "mainstream consensus" is almost entirely dominated by a single school: University of Chicago. The fringe is becoming... literally every other school. The Ivies. The West Coast. The Euros…
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Hi all, A reminder that comments do need to be on-topic and engage with the article past the headline. Please make sure to read the article before commenting. Very short comments will automatically be removed by automod. Please avoid making comments that do not focus on the economic content or whose primary thesis rests on personal anecdotes. As…
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Six Nobel economists publish letter backing Prop 40
Esther Duflo, Paul Krugman, Peter Diamond, Abhijit Banerjee, Daron Acemoglu and Joseph Stiglitz signed a letter, organized around Gabriel Zucman's work, endorsing the California billionaire tax.
“Really great to see this: six Nobel Prize-winning economists (Duflo, Krugman, Diamond, Banerjee, Acemoglu and Stiglitz) just came out in favor of the California billionaire tax.”
— @rutgerbregman -
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CalMatters flags Prop 40's fate as still uncertain
Columnist Dan Walters notes that even with 52% support for Prop 40, competing measures could still nullify it if they draw more votes, complicating the outcome.
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1 outlet first by CalMatters, 6d ago · read ↗
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- 1 day quiet
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PPIC poll finds slim majority backing Prop 40 and its rivals
A Public Policy Institute of California poll of over 1,100 likely voters found narrow majority support for Proposition 40 but also majority support for two billionaire-backed countermeasures, Propositions 41 and 42, that could nullify it.
“Fifty-two percent of likely voters said they support Proposition 40, the proposed 5% one-time tax on the total...”
— NY Post -
first by Mercury News, 8d ago · also LAist, The Mercury News, KQED, NY Post, New York Post
5 more headlines
- California’s audacious plan to tax its billionaires vox.com · 8d ago
- California billionaires tax has slim lead in new poll LAist · 7d ago
- Election 2026 poll: California voters back billionaire tax The Mercury News · 7d ago
- California Billionaire Tax Has a Slim Lead in New Poll, but Still ‘a Lot of Work to Do’ KQED · 7d ago
- California billionaire tax draws majority support in new poll — but there’s a big catch NY Post · 7d ago
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Raise taxes on billionaires federally, not state by state https://www. latimes.com/opinion/story/2026 -09-16/billionaire-tax-california-proposition-40-federal-income-wealth-tax?utm_source=flipboard&utm_medium=activitypub Posted into Opinion @ opinion-LATimes
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Also covered reported alongside — the timeline has no entry for these yet
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first by Mastodon, 2d ago
1 more headline
- California billionaire tax loses ground in new poll politico.com · 2d ago
and 4 smaller pieces
What people are saying 6 voices from 2 sites · best of 17 · verbatim
- Will billionaires actually relocate to avoid the tax, and by how much would that reduce state revenue?
- If Prop 40 passes alongside competing measures 41 and 42, which prevails and does it nullify the wealth tax?
- Sep 22
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Report: Nobel Prize-Winning Economists Back Billionaire Tax in California Economist Joseph Stiglitz said that "a one-time 5% tax on billionaire residents of California could kickstart wealth distribution in the US & across the world." During the 2000 federal election cycle, billionaire political donations made up only 1% of the total - compared to…
- Sep 21
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What obligations? We're talking about the most brazenly, openly corrupt governments we've ever seen, and yet people want to siphon even more money to the gov't?
- Sep 20
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Just bring back pre-Regan tax codes and apply it to borrowing against things like stocks. Billionaire don’t improve the economy, they just siphon from it.
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The context of this quote is important. Michael Crichton was a brilliant writer but he was also an idiot who denied the scientific consensus that the earth is warming, despite the overwhelming evidence. He used this clever-sounding anti-consensus rhetoric to justify ignoring reality, just as anti-vaxxers and flat-earthers do.
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When you think about how much these billionires benefit from tax credits, the education system, a strong economy due to infrastructure investment, the internet and whatever else. And they really think they are like Christopher Columbus and they discovered it all on their merits? Its a bit disgusting. At least the Carnegies and Rockefellers left…
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Now show the number of Nobel prize economists who didn’t sign Zucman’s letter! Given there are 60 to 65 of them, sure is interesting they didn’t show the summary statistics. Shame. They should know that’s always the first table…