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BusinessQuiet 2d · day 6

Morgan Stanley expects SARB rate hike this week as oil prices threaten inflation target

The investment bank reversed its previous call, citing renewed energy price pressure and risk that inflation stays above the 3% target longer.

newest coverage 2d agosummary written 5d ago13 pieces NewswiresMastodon

What to know

  • Morgan Stanley reversed its forecast and now expects the SARB to raise rates by 25 basis points to 7.25% on September 23, citing renewed oil price pressure.
  • The hike is framed as "insurance" to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unanchored if prices stay above the 3% target for extended periods.
  • Global rate increases by the Federal Reserve, ECB, and Bank of Japan reduce room for the SARB to hold rates without risking currency weakness and real interest rate erosion.
  • Morgan Stanley expects the SARB to hold rates through 2027 after next week's decision, despite markets pricing in 75 basis points of additional tightening.

“Morgan Stanley has changed its call on South African interest rates and now expects the central bank to raise borrowing costs this week, saying renewed oil-price pressure increases the risk that inflation takes longer to return to its 3% target.”

Morgan Stanley · Bloomberg ↗

Andrea Masia Morgan Stanley analystArnav Gupta Morgan Stanley analystSouth African Reserve Bank (SARB) Central bank

Morgan Stanley expects SARB rate hike this week as oil prices threaten inflation target
News24

How it unfolded 1 development · click the chart to see its coverage articlesposts

Peak 4 pieces in two hours at Sep 21, 12 AM; 13 pieces over 6 days (8 articles · 5 posts) Sep 21, 12 AM — 4 pieces · 3 articles · 1 post — Newswires 3, Mastodon 1Sep 21, 2 AM — quietSep 21, 4 AM — quietSep 21, 6 AM — quietSep 21, 8 AM — 1 piece · 1 article — Newswires 1Sep 21, 10 AM — quietSep 21, 12 PM — quietSep 21, 2 PM — quietSep 21, 4 PM — quietSep 21, 6 PM — quietSep 21, 8 PM — quietSep 21, 10 PM — quietSep 22, 12 AM — quietSep 22, 2 AM — quietSep 22, 4 AM — quietSep 22, 6 AM — quietSep 22, 8 AM — quietSep 22, 10 AM — quietSep 22, 12 PM — quietSep 22, 2 PM — quietSep 22, 4 PM — quietSep 22, 6 PM — quietSep 22, 8 PM — quietSep 22, 10 PM — 2 pieces · 1 article · 1 post — Mastodon 1, Newswires 1Sep 23, 12 AM — quietSep 23, 2 AM — 2 pieces · 1 article · 1 post — Mastodon 1, Newswires 1Sep 23, 4 AM — quietSep 23, 6 AM — quietSep 23, 8 AM — 2 pieces · 1 article · 1 post — Mastodon 1, Newswires 1Sep 23, 10 AM — quietSep 23, 12 PM — quietSep 23, 2 PM — quietSep 23, 4 PM — quietSep 23, 6 PM — quietSep 23, 8 PM — quietSep 23, 10 PM — quietSep 24, 12 AM — quietSep 24, 2 AM — quietSep 24, 4 AM — 2 pieces · 1 article · 1 post — Mastodon 1, Newswires 1Sep 24, 6 AM — quietSep 24, 8 AM — quietSep 24, 10 AM — quietSep 24, 12 PM — quietSep 24, 2 PM — quietSep 24, 4 PM — quietSep 24, 6 PM — quietSep 24, 8 PM — quietSep 24, 10 PM — quietYesterday, 12 AM — quietYesterday, 2 AM — quietYesterday, 4 AM — quietYesterday, 6 AM — quietYesterday, 8 AM — quietYesterday, 10 AM — quietYesterday, 12 PM — quietYesterday, 2 PM — quietYesterday, 4 PM — quietYesterday, 6 PM — quietYesterday, 8 PM — quietYesterday, 10 PM — quietToday, 12 AM — quietToday, 2 AM — quietToday, 4 AM — quietToday, 6 AM — quietToday, 8 AM — quietToday, 10 AM — quietToday, 12 PM — quietToday, 2 PM — quiet 1
Sep 22Sep 23Sep 24yesterdaynow · 3:15 PM ET
  1. background

    SARB policy rate decision expected — South Africa's Reserve Bank is scheduled to announce its policy rate decision. Morgan Stanley analysts Masia and Gupta expect a 25 basis point increase to 7.25%, reversing their previous hold call.

  2. 1

    Morgan Stanley reverses rate forecast, expects SARB to hike

    Morgan Stanley changed its call on South African interest rates and now expects the central bank to raise borrowing costs this week, citing renewed oil-price pressure that increases the risk inflation takes longer to return to its 3% target.

    “The longer that happens, the greater the risk that those expectations become unanchored.”
    — Andrea Masia and Arnav Gupta, Morgan Stanley

    1. 2 outlets first by Bloomberg Economics, 5d ago · also Bloomberg Politics · read ↗

    2. 1 outlet News24 | Rate hike expected as ‘insurance’

      first by News24, 5d ago

    • SNB Gauges Inflation Impact of a Weaker Franc https://www. bloomberg.com/news/articles/20 26-09-23/snb-gauges-inflation-impact-of-a-weaker-franc-decision-guide?utm_source=flipboard&utm_medium=activitypub Posted into Bloomberg Television @ bloomberg-television-bloomberg

      bloomberg@flipboard.comMastodon3d agoview on Mastodon ↗

Also covered reported alongside — the timeline has no entry for these yet

  1. 1 outlet Outlier Bank of America Sees Two South Africa Rate Hikes in 2026

    first by Bloomberg Economics, 5d ago

    1 more headline

and 3 smaller pieces