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BusinessActive today · day 3

Belarus Says It Has No Potash to Spare for Trump's 'Massive Deal'

Trump touted a cut-price Belarusian potash deal to undercut Canada; Lukashenko says Belarus has no volumes left to sell.

Part of a larger narrative

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What to know

  • Trump announced a 'massive' potash deal with Belarus at prices 'substantially less' than Canada, but Lukashenko said within hours Belarus has no spare volumes to sell.
  • Canada supplied 79% of US potash imports in 2024 versus 4% from Belarus, raising questions about whether Belarus can meaningfully replace Canadian supply.
  • The move comes as Washington quietly warms relations with Minsk (recent prisoner releases, eased sanctions) despite Belarus's role backing Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its own political repression.
  • Exiled opposition leader Tsikhanouskaya and commentators warn that any deal channels revenue to Lukashenko's regime and, by extension, Russia.

The dispute Whether the announced deal is a genuine negotiation that Belarus is simply downplaying for leverage, or a fabrication/political stunt with no real supply behind it. · positions read across 81 posts and comments

most voices

The 'deal' appears fabricated or exaggerated since Belarus itself denies knowledge of adequate supply.

  • “How many times does this make where he says something, and the nation he's supposedly negotiated a deal with says it knows nothing about it, and has nothing to do with any of it, and has no idea who he's been talking to?”

    Sabbathius · Reddit ↗
many voices

The economics don't work: Belarus lacks the production capacity and shipping would cost more than Canadian supply.

  • “What I'm saying is Belarus can only produce so much. They're likely at their maximum capacity and selling all they can produce.”

    Therealblackhous3 · Reddit ↗
some voices

This is really Russian potash being laundered through Belarus to evade sanctions.

  • “Does Belarus produce enough of the stuff? Nah, it's going to be Russian potash with a "made in Belarus" sticker slapped onto each package.”

    Rannasha · Reddit ↗
some voices

Pursuing a deal with Lukashenko's regime is morally indefensible given its ties to Russia and record of repression.

  • “Trump is Putin's slave.”

    michaelmackay.bsky.social · Bluesky ↗

Donald TrumpDonald Trump US PresidentAlexander LukashenkoAlexander Lukashenko President of BelarusSviatlana Tsikhanouskaya Exiled Belarusian opposition leaderCanada Top US potash supplier (79% of 2024 imports)

Belarus Says It Has No Potash to Spare for Trump's 'Massive Deal'
theguardian.com

How it unfolded 6 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlespostscomments

Peak 23 pieces in one hour at Sep 21, 11 AM; 163 pieces over 3 days (56 articles · 53 posts · 54 comments) Sep 21, 10 AM — 4 pieces · 1 article · 3 posts — X 2, Reddit 1, Newswires 1Sep 21, 11 AM — 23 pieces · 18 articles · 5 posts — Newswires 18, Mastodon 2, Reddit 2, +1 moreSep 21, 12 PM — 20 pieces · 4 articles · 3 posts · 13 comments — Reddit 16, Newswires 3, Mastodon 1Sep 21, 1 PM — 4 pieces · 1 article · 3 posts — Mastodon 2, Reddit 1, X 1Sep 21, 2 PM — 4 pieces · 2 articles · 2 posts — Mastodon 2, Hacker News 1, Newswires 1Sep 21, 3 PM — 14 pieces · 5 articles · 2 posts · 7 comments — Reddit 7, Newswires 3, Google News 2, +1 moreSep 21, 4 PM — 5 pieces · 5 posts — Reddit 3, Mastodon 2Sep 21, 5 PM — 2 pieces · 2 posts — Mastodon 2Sep 21, 6 PM — 12 pieces · 1 article · 3 posts · 8 comments — Reddit 9, Bluesky 1, Hacker News 1, +1 moreSep 21, 7 PM — 2 pieces · 2 articles — Google News 1, Mastodon 1Sep 21, 8 PM — quietSep 21, 9 PM — 6 pieces · 2 posts · 4 comments — Reddit 4, Mastodon 2Sep 21, 10 PM — quietSep 21, 11 PM — 6 pieces · 4 articles · 2 posts — Newswires 3, Mastodon 3Sep 22, 12 AM — 13 pieces · 3 posts · 10 comments — Reddit 10, Mastodon 3Sep 22, 1 AM — quietSep 22, 2 AM — 3 pieces · 1 article · 2 posts — Mastodon 2, Newswires 1Sep 22, 3 AM — 7 pieces · 1 article · 3 posts · 3 comments — Reddit 3, Mastodon 2, Newswires 1, +1 moreSep 22, 4 AM — quietSep 22, 5 AM — 3 pieces · 1 article · 2 posts — Mastodon 2, Newswires 1Sep 22, 6 AM — 2 pieces · 2 comments — Reddit 2Sep 22, 7 AM — 2 pieces · 2 articles — Google News 2Sep 22, 8 AM — quietSep 22, 9 AM — 6 pieces · 1 article · 2 posts · 3 comments — Reddit 3, Mastodon 2, Newswires 1Sep 22, 10 AM — 10 pieces · 7 articles · 3 posts — Google News 6, Mastodon 3, Newswires 1Sep 22, 11 AM — 3 pieces · 2 articles · 1 post — Google News 1, Newswires 1, X 1Sep 22, 12 PM — 2 pieces · 2 comments — Reddit 2Sep 22, 1 PM — 1 piece · 1 article — Newswires 1Sep 22, 2 PM — 1 piece · 1 article — Mastodon 1Sep 22, 3 PM — quietSep 22, 4 PM — quietSep 22, 5 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Sep 22, 6 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Sep 22, 7 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Sep 22, 8 PM — quietSep 22, 9 PM — quietSep 22, 10 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — Bluesky 1Sep 22, 11 PM — quietYesterday, 12 AM — quietYesterday, 1 AM — quietYesterday, 2 AM — quietYesterday, 3 AM — quietYesterday, 4 AM — quietYesterday, 5 AM — quietYesterday, 6 AM — quietYesterday, 7 AM — quietYesterday, 8 AM — quietYesterday, 9 AM — quietYesterday, 10 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Reddit 1Yesterday, 11 AM — 1 piece · 1 article — Newswires 1Yesterday, 12 PM — quietYesterday, 1 PM — 1 piece · 1 comment — Reddit 1Yesterday, 2 PM — quietYesterday, 3 PM — quietYesterday, 4 PM — quietYesterday, 5 PM — quietYesterday, 6 PM — quietYesterday, 7 PM — 1 piece · 1 comment — Reddit 1Yesterday, 8 PM — quietYesterday, 9 PM — quietYesterday, 10 PM — quietYesterday, 11 PM — quiet 123456
Sep 22yesterdaynow · 12:04 AM ET
  1. 6

    Reporting questions whether Belarus can replace Canada

    Follow-up coverage from the Kyiv Independent and RFE/RL examined Belarus's production capacity and sanctions exposure, concluding Lukashenko's denial undercuts Trump's stated plan to substitute Belarusian supply for Canada's, which provided 79% of US potash imports in 2024 versus 4% from Belarus.

    1. first by RFE/RL, 1d ago

    • ⚡️Lukashenko dampens Trump's hopes for Belarusian potash. “Even if we wanted to supply (potash) to Western markets, we simply do not have those volumes — everything is contracted," Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko said.

      @KyivIndependentX1d ago151▲view on X ↗
    2 more of the top 3 · 9 posts in this stretch
    • electionevery.bsky.social

      NEW #TRUMP LIE TO #FARMERS Belarus made a demand for $40 Million USD Trump then says he plans on getting Potash from #Belarus. Research how Belarus will get that product to the USA @stephruhle.bsky.social @cnbc.com @financialtimes.com @theguardian.com @velshi.com

      electionevery.bsky.socialBluesky1d ago2▲view on Bluesky ↗
    • youranoncentral.bsky.social@bsky.brid.gy

      Trump claimed the US was going to replace Canada's potash with Belarus (Russia's proxy dictatorship) as an attempt to pressure Canada into a shitty deal. Except Belarus has no Potash left because China said "bet, I'll buy it all" and now the US has to crawl back to Canada under Canadas terms. Maximum Overbusiness Handshake

      youranoncentral.bsky.social@bsky.brid.gyMastodon1d agoview on Mastodon ↗
    all of them →
  2. 5

    Trump says US will keep buying Canadian potash too

    Trump clarified that the US would continue purchasing Canadian potash while Belarus would sell at a lower price, softening the earlier framing of Belarus replacing Canada outright.

    1. 4 outlets first by Mastodon, 1d ago · also U.S. News & World Report, Yahoo News Singapore, Reuters · read ↗

    • MugsysRapSheet@mastodon.social

      The # GaslighterInChief announced yesterday that he made a deal with # Belarus to get # PotAsh fertilizer from them instead of # Canada . Belarus responds, "Huh? What deal? We don't have enough PotAsh to spare." He just makes crap up b/c he knows his # cult will swallow it. https:// thehill.com/policy/internation…

      MugsysRapSheet@mastodon.socialMastodon1d ago6▲view on Mastodon ↗
    2 more of the top 3 · 9 posts in this stretch
    • Lol don't worry he can't cheat his way to a good midterms. This is going to be a historic reckoning. The midterms will be as historic as his election victory was and the Republicans will lose everything.

      Ok-Win-742r/canada1d agoview on r/canada ↗
    • rmblaber1956@mastodon.social

      https://www. theguardian.com/world/2026/sep /22/trump-seeks-massive-belarus-fertiliser-deal-amid-canada-trade-war . # Trump wants a "massive" # fertiliser # deal with # Belarus ? He obviously doesn't care that Belarus is an # ally of # Russia , an # enemy of # Ukraine , a # dictatorship , a # humanrights nightmare, & a site for # Russian # nuclear…

      rmblaber1956@mastodon.socialMastodon1d ago1▲view on Mastodon ↗
    all of them →
  3. 4

    Tsikhanouskaya calls a Lukashenko deal 'very risky'

    Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya warned against trading with the Lukashenko government, arguing potash revenue funds repression and Russia's war effort, as the Guardian noted the US had recently thawed relations with Minsk and freed political prisoners.

    “Our position is that it is not time to trade with the regime while all the income from potash goes to repression, goes to support of the Russian war machine…”
    — Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
    • Trump's statement that buying Potash from the brutal Russian-backed dictatorship of Belarus instead of Canada will save money is factually inaccurate. After transportation costs, the US would pay substantially more for Belarusian potash. And even IF pricing made sense, with

      @JayinKyivX1d ago1.6k▲view on X ↗
    2 more of the top 3 · 24 posts in this stretch
    • hanse_mina@mastodon.social

      Belarus’s authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko said Monday that there are no available volumes of fertilizer to send to the U.S. https:// thehill.com/policy/internation al/6102469-trump-lukashenko-potash-deal-clash/ # Ukraine # Russia # US # Belarus

      hanse_mina@mastodon.socialMastodon2d ago8▲view on Mastodon ↗
    • Devil's advocate, but the game plan seemed to be that Canada would suffer more in an economic war due to them having a smaller economy. As long as the US can outlast Canada, they would presumably be able to dictate a more one sided deal that would in the long run benefit them more.

      Educational-Store131r/worldnews1d agoview on r/worldnews ↗
    all of them →
  4. 3

    Commentators mock the apparent contradiction

    Social media accounts and newsletters highlighted that Belarus publicly contradicted Trump within hours of his announcement, casting doubt on whether any deal exists.

    “He announced a massive deal to spite Canada. Hours later, Lukashenko said every tonne is already sold as Trump hit's historic polling low of 29% approval. LOLZ.”
    — Dean Blundell
    1. first by Globe and Mail, 2d ago · also Interfax-Ukraine, Illinois, Reuters, Trump's Truth, Bloomberg, Euronews +2

      10 more headlines
    • michaelmackay.bsky.social

      Trump imposed unjustified tariffs on potash from U.S. ally Canada – which sent fertilizer prices through the roof for American farmers. Trump claims he will buy potash from Belarus – which is an integral part of the russian terrorist state and an enemy of the United States. Trump is Putin's slave.

      michaelmackay.bsky.socialBluesky2d ago133▲view on Bluesky ↗
    2 more of the top 3 · 20 posts in this stretch
    • kevinrothrock@infosec.exchange

      The Donald Trump: The U.S. is working on a “major deal” to buy Belarusian potash! Eat shit, Canada! Lukashenko, hours earlier: Belarus has no potash to spare for Western markets, “even if we wanted to.” https:// news.zerkalo.io/economics/1368 81.html

      kevinrothrock@infosec.exchangeMastodon2d ago40▲view on Mastodon ↗
    • Considering I literally work in one of the largest potash mines in the world, I'm well aware of the distribution. The demand for potash keeps going up, the supply hasn't for a long time. BHP should be producing steady in a couple years but that's the biggest increase we've seen in a long time. What I'm saying is Belarus can only produce so much…

      Therealblackhous3r/canada2d agoview on r/canada ↗
    all of them →
  5. 2

    Lukashenko says Belarus has no potash left to sell

    Hours after Trump's announcement, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said his country cannot supply potash to the US because its entire output is already committed elsewhere.

    “Even if we wanted to supply somewhere else, Western markets, we just don't have those volumes, everything has…”
    — Alexander Lukashenko
    1. first by The Kyiv Independent, 1d ago · also Kyiv Independent

    • Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko says Belarus cannot supply potash to the United States under Donald Trump's proposed "deal" with Belarus. Lukashenko said today, "Even if we wanted to supply somewhere else, Western markets, we just don't have those volumes, everything has

      @Harry__FaulknerX2d ago3.0k▲view on X ↗
    2 more of the top 3 · 16 posts in this stretch
    • I mean its easy he doesn't give a fuck how costly that'll be. Only that the money goes to his handler Putin through Belarus proxy government. He doesnt give the slightest shit about you. Dude got filtht rich through single cell organism worshipping him to " own the libs"

      Dythusr/Economics2d agoview on r/Economics ↗
    • humanhorseshoes@mastodon.world

      WHAT THE FUCK AMERICA? WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK? https://www. euronews.com/2026/09/21/trump- promotes-massive-belarus-potash-deal-to-undercut-canada . This is UTTERLY reckless and puts all of Europe in danger. What the fuck.

      humanhorseshoes@mastodon.worldMastodon2d agoview on Mastodon ↗
    all of them →
  6. 1

    Trump announces 'massive' potash deal with Belarus

    Trump posted on Truth Social that the US is working on a large purchase of Belarusian potash at 'substantially less' than current Canadian prices, framing it as good news for US farmers amid his tariff fight with Canada.

    “The United States is working on a massive deal with respect to the purchase of Potash from Belarus. The pricing would be for substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada, very good news for our farmers and ranchers.”
    — Donald Trump
    1. 6 outlets first by Bloomberg Politics, 1d ago · also ThePrint, Politico Europe, Politico, CTV News, Bloomberg · read ↗

    2. 3 outlets first by theguardian.com, 1d ago · also Guardian, Agence France-Presse · read ↗

    6 more claims →
    • Trump says he wants potash from Belarus instead of Canada

      @josh_wingroveX2d ago600▲view on X ↗
    2 more of the top 3 · 3 posts in this stretch
    • thomastraynor@social.linux.pizza

      A few things. 1. One thing for him to blather about a deal, but until the other side confirms I consider it a lot of hot air. 2. What does he consider 'massive deal'. 3. What does he consider 'substantially less'. 4. Isn't Belarus and their potash industry under sanctions? So how is it going to be shipped if not via Lithuania, Poland or Ukraine as…

      thomastraynor@social.linux.pizzaMastodon2d agoview on Mastodon ↗
    • BREAKING: President Trump says the US is working on a "massive deal" to purchase potash from Belarus for "substantially less" than the US is currently paying Canada.

      @KobeissiLetterX2d ago170▲view on X ↗
    all of them →

Also covered reported alongside — the timeline has no entry for these yet

  1. first by Meduza EN, 2d ago · also Meduza

  2. first by Trump Truth Social, 2d ago · also Anadolu Agency

    1 more headline

What people are saying 10 voices from 3 sites · best of 81 · verbatim

Still unanswered
  • Is Belarus's potash under sanctions, and if so how would it physically be shipped without routing through Russia?
  • Does Belarus actually have any spare production capacity beyond what it already sells to other markets?
  • Is the announced deal even confirmed by Belarus, or only asserted by Trump?