NYT Analysis: Hispanic Voters Drifting From Trump Reshape Midterm Map
Nate Cohn's Upshot analysis finds Hispanic voters swinging toward Democrats, putting Texas and Florida in play for November.
What to know
- NYT's Nate Cohn reports Hispanic voters are moving away from Trump and Republicans ahead of the midterms.
- A month's average of national polls shows Democrats leading Republicans 64-29 among Hispanic likely voters on the generic congressional ballot, a 35-point margin.
- The shift could make Texas and Florida — states with large Hispanic populations — competitive in November, according to the analysis.
Nate Cohn NYT Upshot polling analyst, author of the pieceHispanic voters Electoral demographic at center of the analysis
Donald Trump President, subject of the voter shiftRepublican Party Party facing potential losses in Hispanic-heavy districts
How it unfolded 2 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlesposts
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Poll average shows Democrats up 35 points among Hispanics
A month-long average of high-quality national polls cited in the analysis found Democrats leading Republicans 64-29 among Hispanic likely voters on the generic congressional ballot.
“In an average of high-quality national polls over the last month, Democrats led Republicans among Hispanic likely voters by 35 percentage points, 64-29, on the generic congressional ballot…”
— New York Times (Nate Cohn) -
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In an average of high-quality national polls over the last month, Democrats led Republicans among Hispanic likely voters by 35 percentage points, 64-29, on the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they will support for Congress. # ethnicity # elections # USA # politics # LatinoAmerica # voting # votingrights # civilrights #…
2 more of the top 3 · 3 posts in this stretch
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I was friends with the worst of this. She was snuck across the border in her mothers skirts and spoke Spanish fluently enough to afford a job in our home town which was so mixed it was great. She teaches Spanish in math and still hates them. I learned Spanish and teach esl at our library. I'm so disappointed
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Wtf I don't get this narrative of Indians being racist. They're overwhelmingly voting democrat in every poll. Mamdani, Khanna, Thanedar, Harris, are all of Indian descent but everyone only focuses on Kash and Vivek for their heritage.
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Cohn's Upshot piece says Hispanic voters are abandoning Trump
The New York Times published Nate Cohn's analysis arguing that a shift among Hispanic voters away from Trump could transform the midterm electoral map, naming Texas and even Florida as states to watch in November.
“Texas and even Florida are the places to watch in November if a polling pattern holds.”
— Nate Cohn -
2 outlets first by The New York Times, 1d ago · also NYT · read ↗
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