Haass and Kissane: Iran stalemate unsustainable as oil hits $110
Foreign Affairs experts warn escalating attacks on energy infrastructure threaten global recession.
What to know
- Six-month U.S.-Iran conflict escalated dramatically in mid-September when Houthis took the Bab el Mandeb Strait and Iran-linked militias attacked Saudi Arabia's main export pipeline, collapsing the informal restraint that had kept energy markets stable.
- Oil prices jumped from $70s to $110 per barrel; further attacks could push prices to $150–$200 and trigger global recession.
- Foreign Affairs analysis by Haass and Kissane argues military coercion and threats have failed to bend Iran's behavior, and diplomacy is now the only viable path to prevent economic collapse.
“For six months, the war with Iran was disruptive but manageable… It seemed that Washington and Tehran could extend their current stalemate, occasionally trading airstrikes and attacks on individual tankers and energy facilities, without leading the world into economic calamity. That is no longer the case.”
Richard Haass and Carolyn Kissane, CFR President Emeritus and NYU climate expert · Foreign Affairs ↗ · Sep 22
Richard Haass Council on Foreign Relations President EmeritusCarolyn Kissane NYU climate and energy expert
Donald Trump U.S. PresidentIran State actor in six-month conflictHouthis Yemeni-based armed group aligned with Iran
How it unfolded 1 development · click the chart to see its coverage articlesposts
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Haass and KissaneMilitary coercion has failed; diplomacy urgent
Foreign Affairs publishes analysis from Council on Foreign Relations President Emeritus Richard Haass and NYU climate expert Carolyn Kissane arguing that six months of military attacks and economic coercion have not forced Iran to make concessions, and threats will not change behavior. They call for a diplomatic exit strategy.
“Half a year of alternating military attacks and economic coercion has not forced Tehran and its partners to make concessions, and there is no reason to expect that those strategies—much less threatening to 'annihilate' Iran, as U.S. President Donald Trump did in his UN speech on Tuesday—would compel them to change their behavior today.”
— Richard Haass and Carolyn Kissane -
Washington should not try to merely resurrect a memorandum of understanding that it negotiated with Tehran in June. I agree. Resurrection of the MOU is unlikely to work since Trump failed to uphold his end and would likely just fail again if it was renewed. Iran will surely demand to be paid upfront and even more favorable terms.
2 more of the top 3 · 3 posts in this stretch
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After signing the MOU on June 17, the U.S. granted Iran oil waivers, lifted its blockade, and helped secured a Lebanon ceasefire on June 19. Iran threw the agreement away by attacking ships in Oman's waters starting June 27th, wrongly assuming the MOU gave it the right to do so.
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And how exactly should America "finish it"? How do you propose to do that exactly?
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background
Trump threatens Iran with annihilation at UN — U.S. President Donald Trump delivers UN speech threatening to 'annihilate' Iran, hardening rhetoric as conflict escalates.
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Oil prices spike to $110 per barrel amid infrastructure attacks — Oil price jumps from mid-$70s in August to $110 in September as energy infrastructure becomes targets. Further supply disruptions could push prices to $150–$200 per barrel and trigger global recession.
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Houthis attack Saudi cities Riyadh and Yanbu — Houthi strikes on Saudi population centers create real risk of wider Saudi-Houthi escalation, adding upward pressure on global oil prices.
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Houthis gain control of Bab el Mandeb Strait; Iran-linked militia strikes Saudi pipeline — The Bab el Mandeb—the main alternative shipping route to the Hormuz Strait—falls under Houthi control. An Iranian-affiliated militia from Iraq launches a drone attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, temporarily disabling it and cutting off a major export diversion route.
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background
Six-month U.S.-Iran conflict enters manageable phase — War begins with the Strait of Hormuz largely closed to traffic, blocking roughly 20% of world LNG trade and higher portions of oil trade. Prices rise but global markets stabilize; both U.S. and Iran avoid major attacks on critical energy infrastructure.