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OECD upgrades UK 2026 growth but sees slower 2027 amid Middle East conflict

OECD raises this year's UK growth forecast to 1.1% but trims 2027 outlook to 1%, citing higher energy prices from the Middle East war.

newest coverage 6h agosummary written 20h ago13 pieces8 likes & upvotes NewswiresMastodonReddit

What to know

  • OECD upgraded UK 2026 growth to 1.1% (from 0.9%) but cut its 2027 forecast slightly to 1% (from 1.1%), citing energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict.
  • UK inflation is forecast at 3.1% this year, below the previous 3.6% estimate, but is expected to take longer to fall back to target, at 2.6% in 2027 versus an earlier 2.4% forecast.
  • The figures land ahead of Chancellor John Healey's first Budget in late October, amid rising debt-interest costs and an August borrowing surge.
  • UK inflation remains the second-fastest in the G7, and the OECD also flagged wider global growth risks from the Middle East war and climate-related supply shocks.

“Despite unprecedented pressures and conflict in both the Middle East and in Europe, the UK economy is showing strong resilience.”

Emma Reynolds, Treasury minister · Evening Standard ↗ · Sep 22

OECD International economic organisationEmma ReynoldsEmma Reynolds UK Treasury ministerAndy BurnhamAndy Burnham UK Prime MinisterJohn HealeyJohn Healey UK Chancellor

OECD upgrades UK 2026 growth but sees slower 2027 amid Middle East conflict
bbc.co.uk

How it unfolded 3 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlesposts

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4 AM8 AM12 PM4 PM8 PMnow · 1:57 AM ET
  1. 3

    Treasury minister Emma Reynolds defends government's economic record

    Reynolds pointed to the UK having the fastest growth in the G7 in the first half of the year and said government support measures are giving families "space to breathe" despite pressures from the Middle East and Europe.

    “We had the fastest growth in the G7 in the first half of the year and we are starting the big, long-term changes needed to create good jobs and growth in every postcode.”
    — Emma Reynolds
    1. 1 outlet UK growth to slow next year after stronger-than-expected 2026, says OECD

      first by Evening Standard, 21h ago

    • BBC@c.im

      # BBC # News UK economy will grow by less than expected next year, OECD says

      BBC@c.imMastodon21h agoview on Mastodon ↗
  2. 2

    Forecasts add pressure on Healey ahead of first Budget

    The BBC noted the OECD figures land as Chancellor John Healey prepares his first Budget at the end of October, already facing higher debt-interest costs from inflation and an unexpected surge in government borrowing in August, while balancing cost-of-living support against fiscal rules and defence spending pressure.

    1. 2 outlets UK warned over ballooning debt costs and slower growth ahead of Budget

      first by BBC Business, 16h ago · also BBC

  3. 1

    OECD flags global growth hit from Middle East conflict and climate shocks

    The OECD said global growth had been "resilient in many countries" in 2026 despite the war in Iran, but expects global growth to be 0.1% lower next year, with Australia, Canada and the Euro-area among those affected by energy prices and climate-related supply shocks including a strong El Nino.

    1. 2 outlets OECD says growth 'resilient' in 2026 despite Middle East war

      first by Deutsche Welle EN, 20h ago · also Euronews

      1 more headline
  4. background

    OECD cuts near-term UK inflation forecast but sees slower return to target — The OECD said UK consumer price inflation is on track to hit 3.1% this year, down from a prior forecast of 3.6%, but will take longer to fall back to target, with 2027 inflation now seen at 2.6% versus 2.4% forecast in June.

  5. background

    OECD upgrades UK 2026 growth, downgrades 2027 outlook — The OECD raised its forecast for UK growth this year to 1.1% (from 0.9% in June) citing solid domestic demand, but cut its 2027 forecast to 1% from an earlier 1.1%, blaming higher energy prices linked to the prolonged Middle East conflict.

Also covered reported alongside — the timeline has no entry for these yet

  1. 3 outlets UK economy will grow by less than expected next year, OECD says

    first by Mastodon, 4m ago · also BBC, BBC Science