Trump touts Belarus potash deal as Canada trade war drags on
Trump says he's nearing a cheap potash deal with Belarus to bypass Canada, but Lukashenko and trade analysts call the plan unworkable.
What to know
- Canada supplies about 90% of US potash imports (13 million tons last year) and potash has virtually no substitute for American farmers.
- Trump claims a cheaper 'massive Deal' with Belarus, a sanctioned ally of Putin, but Lukashenko says Belarus cannot supply large volumes.
- Analysts estimate Belarusian potash would cost about $200/ton versus $130/ton from Canada, and note it is largely already committed to Asian buyers.
- The move comes as US farmers face sharp increases in fertilizer and diesel costs tied to the war with Iran, adding political pressure on Trump.
“Look, if you can’t laugh at the president desperately promising angry farmers that he’ll magically replace massive quantities of fertilizer from our nextdoor military ally with small imaginary quantities from a tinpot authoritarian thousands of miles away, then you simply have no sense of humor”
Scott Lincicome, VP, Cato Institute · X, quoted by CNN/KEYT-TV ↗ · Sep 22
Donald Trump US President
Alexander Lukashenko President of BelarusAlexis Maxwell Senior analyst, Bloomberg IntelligenceChris Krueger Global head of macro research, TD CowenScott Lincicome VP, Cato Institute
How it unfolded 1 development · click the chart to see its coverage articlesposts
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Analysts call the Belarus potash plan unrealistic
Trade and commodity analysts said sanctions-driven shipping costs, existing Asian commitments and logistics make a large-scale Belarus-to-US potash pivot implausible, even as US farmers face surging fertilizer and diesel costs tied to the Iran war.
“It's not realistic at all. It's prohibitively expensive to remove Belarusian material…”
— Alexis Maxwell -
C
# CNN # News Trump is turning to a Putin ally to help America’s farmers. But there’s a big catch
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background
Trump announces 'massive Deal' for Belarusian potash — Trump posted on Truth Social that he is working on a large deal to buy potash from Belarus at a much cheaper price than Canada, positioning it as an alternative to Canada's dominant supply position.
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Lukashenko says Belarus cannot supply large potash volumes — Hours before Trump's announcement, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Belarus's potash supplies are already committed for the year and it cannot deliver large volumes to the United States.
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background
US imposes 50% tariff on Canadian goods, exempts potash — Trump's administration slapped a 50% tariff on many Canadian imports as part of an escalating trade war, but spared critical inputs including potash, crude oil and electricity.