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Talarico leads Paxton in Texas Senate race across multiple polls

Democrat James Talarico has opened an 11-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton in a heavily GOP district, marking a stunning 28-point swing from Trump's 2024 performance.

newest coverage 6h agosummary written 8h ago6 pieces60 likes & upvotes4 comments NewswiresMastodonYouTube

What to know

  • James Talarico holds leads of 6–11 points over Ken Paxton across four independent polls in Texas State Senate District 9, a district Trump won by 17 points in 2024—a 28-point reversal.
  • The race marks the first time since 1988 that Republicans face serious danger of losing a statewide Senate seat in Texas, following Democrat Taylor Rehmet's special election upset in the same district in January.
  • Prediction markets give Talarico a 59–62% chance of victory, with the Democrat now favored on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
most voices

The Talarico momentum is real and Democrats have a genuine opening in Texas.

  • “Today's Marist poll has James Talarico beating Trump's candidate Ken Paxton 50-44. Please make this stick Texas — you can do this!”

    randahl@mastodon.social · Mastodon ↗

“Quorum Report noted that, unusually, they had published the results of a poll 'without revealing how we got the numbers and without publishing the polling memo.'”

Newsweek · Newsweek ↗

James TalaricoJames Talarico Democratic Texas State Senate candidateKen PaxtonKen Paxton Republican Texas Attorney General and Senate candidateDonald TrumpDonald Trump Former president, endorsed Paxton in primary

Talarico leads Paxton in Texas Senate race across multiple polls
CBS News

How it unfolded 1 development · click the chart to see its coverage articlesvideosposts

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  1. 1

    Marist poll shows Talarico leading Paxton 50–44

    A Marist poll released September 23 showed Democratic candidate James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 50–44 in the Texas Senate race.

    “Democrat James Talarico has seen a massive 28-point swing in vote share in Texas State Senate District 9, compared to President Donald Trump's numbers in 2024.”
    — Newsweek · source

    1. 2 outlets first by Breitbart, 8h ago · also CBS News · read ↗

    • randahl@mastodon.social

      Very good news from Texas: Today's Marist poll has James Talarico beating Trump's candidate Ken Paxton 50-44. Please make this stick Texas — you can do this!

      randahl@mastodon.socialMastodon15h ago60▲view on Mastodon ↗
  2. background

    Emerson College poll shows Talarico ahead by one point — An Emerson College survey conducted September 12–14 showed Talarico leading Paxton 47–46, giving Talarico his first lead across all eight polls tracking the race.

  3. background

    Private Republican poll shows Talarico with 11-point lead — A private poll conducted September 10–15 of 600 likely voters showed Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 52–41 in District 9, representing a 28-point swing from Trump's 2024 performance in the district.

  4. background

    Siena College/ReconMR poll shows Talarico leading 49–43 — A Siena College/ReconMR poll published Thursday and conducted September 8–11 showed Talarico ahead of Paxton 49–43 in the Senate race.

  5. background

    Ken Paxton defeats John Cornyn in GOP primary — Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the May primary to secure the GOP nomination, gaining Trump's endorsement in the contentious race.

  6. background

    Taylor Rehmet wins special election in District 9 — Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss by over 14 points in a special election in Texas State Senate District 9, marking the first time the district voted blue since 1991.

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