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Poll: Burnham can only beat Farage by pledging to rejoin the EU

YouGov research for Best for Britain finds Labour needs a full rejoin-EU pledge to approach a majority and shut out Reform UK.

What to know

  • YouGov/Best for Britain polling finds Labour would win 321 of 632 seats if it pledges to fully rejoin the EU, versus 136 with the current status quo policy.
  • Reform UK's projected seats fall from 300 under the status quo to 191 if Labour commits to rejoining the EU.
  • Andy Burnham has declined to rule out putting an EU-rejoin pledge in Labour's manifesto, and the findings land ahead of a delayed UK-EU summit and Labour's Liverpool conference.
  • Intermediate options — customs union or single market membership — produce smaller Labour gains than a full rejoin pledge.

Andy BurnhamAndy Burnham Labour leader referenced as PM in the coverageNigel FarageNigel Farage Reform UK leaderNaomi Smith Chief executive, Best for BritainTom Brufatto Policy and research director, Best for BritainKemi BadenochKemi Badenoch Conservative leader

Poll: Burnham can only beat Farage by pledging to rejoin the EU
independent.co.uk

How it unfolded 3 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlespostscomments

Peak 2 pieces in one half hour at Yesterday, 2 PM; 9 pieces over 24 hours (2 articles · 4 posts · 3 comments) Yesterday, 2:25 PM — quietYesterday, 2:55 PM — 2 pieces · 1 article · 1 post — Mastodon 2Yesterday, 3:25 PM — quietYesterday, 3:55 PM — quietYesterday, 4:25 PM — quietYesterday, 4:55 PM — quietYesterday, 5:25 PM — quietYesterday, 5:55 PM — quietYesterday, 6:25 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Yesterday, 6:55 PM — 1 piece · 1 article — Google News 1Yesterday, 7:25 PM — quietYesterday, 7:55 PM — quietYesterday, 8:25 PM — quietYesterday, 8:55 PM — quietYesterday, 9:25 PM — quietYesterday, 9:55 PM — quietYesterday, 10:25 PM — quietYesterday, 10:55 PM — quietYesterday, 11:25 PM — quietYesterday, 11:55 PM — quietToday, 12:25 AM — quietToday, 12:55 AM — quietToday, 1:25 AM — 2 pieces · 1 post · 1 comment — Reddit 2Today, 1:55 AM — quietToday, 2:25 AM — quietToday, 2:55 AM — quietToday, 3:25 AM — quietToday, 3:55 AM — quietToday, 4:25 AM — quietToday, 4:55 AM — quietToday, 5:25 AM — quietToday, 5:55 AM — quietToday, 6:25 AM — quietToday, 6:55 AM — quietToday, 7:25 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Today, 7:55 AM — quietToday, 8:25 AM — quietToday, 8:55 AM — quietToday, 9:25 AM — quietToday, 9:55 AM — quietToday, 10:25 AM — 1 piece · 1 comment — Reddit 1Today, 10:55 AM — quietToday, 11:25 AM — quietToday, 11:55 AM — quietToday, 12:25 PM — quietToday, 12:55 PM — quietToday, 1:25 PM — 1 piece · 1 comment — Reddit 1Today, 1:55 PM — quiet 12–3
4 PM8 PMtoday4 AM8 AMnow · 2:25 PM ET
  1. 3

    Devolved first ministers say their nations' future is in the EU

    The findings emerged as the first ministers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland said the future of their nations belongs 'in the European Union,' adding pressure on Westminster ahead of the delayed UK-EU summit.

    “Public opinion has shifted, a majority of voters in each seat support EU membership, and – crucially – are prepared to vote tactically to achieve it.”
    — Naomi Smith, Chief executive, Best for Britain · source
    • PoliceStateUK@mastodon.me.uk

      "The latest polling suggests # Labour could get as few as 136 seats if it does not change its red lines on # Brexit and sticks with the status quo, while # ReformUK would be on 300. The number of seats for Labour increases to 256 with a commitment to join the customs union, 257 with a promise to join the single market and 321 if Mr Burnham pledges…

      PoliceStateUK@mastodon.me.ukMastodon6h ago13▲view on Mastodon ↗
    2 more of the top 3 · 4 posts in this stretch
    • Snapshot of Burnham’s only path to election victory is through pledging to rejoin the EU, research reveals submitted by Visual_Title9363: An archived version can be found here or here. or here If the above links don't work, try this one . Some publications may require you to register a free account to read their articles. Being connected to a VPN…

      AutoModeratorr/ukpolitics12h agoview on r/ukpolitics ↗
    • Celtic secession talks, MPs breaking ranks internally when it comes to EU and Greens/Lib Dems are always an electoral challenge. The argument is only so if he wants to retain a majority or have to work with others to form a government

      Visual_Title9363r/ukpolitics3h agoview on r/ukpolitics ↗
    all of them →
  2. 2

    Report details seat-by-seat gains, including Badenoch and Jenrick at risk

    The Best for Britain report says a full rejoin pledge could see Labour unseat Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, shadow chancellor Andrew Griffith, and Reform UK's Robert Jenrick, while intermediate options (customs union or single market) yield smaller Labour gains.

    • byteseu@pubeurope.com

      Burnham’s only path to election victory is through reversing Brexit and pledging to rejoin the EU, research reveals https://www. byteseu.com/2392604/ # Europe

      byteseu@pubeurope.comMastodon19h agoview on Mastodon ↗
  3. 1

    YouGov/Best for Britain research finds rejoin pledge is Labour's path to victory

    New YouGov polling for Best for Britain across 632 Great Britain constituencies finds Labour would win 321 seats with a full EU-rejoin pledge, versus 136 seats under the status quo, effectively giving Labour a working majority and cutting Reform UK to 191 seats.

    “EU membership is the only policy lever that takes Labour close to a majority at the next election and keeps the architects of Brexit out of power.”
    — Naomi Smith
    1. first by The Independent, 19h ago

  4. background

    Burnham declines to rule out EU-rejoin pledge in Labour manifesto — Asked by The Independent during his trip to the United Nations in New York, Andy Burnham refused to rule out putting a commitment to rejoin the EU into Labour's next election manifesto.

  5. background

    Independent MRP polling shows most constituencies back rejoining EU — Earlier MRP polling published by The Independent found only four constituencies in England, Wales and Scotland do not support rejoining the EU, though some register as 'don't know'.

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