Trump backs US diesel export ban; analyst warns Australia faces rationing risk
Energy analyst warns Australia could see diesel rationing within weeks and prices topping $4/litre if the US restricts exports ahead of November midterms.
What to know
- Trump backed a proposed US diesel export ban to ease record domestic prices (above $6.50/gallon), citing the November midterm elections.
- Australia faces acute vulnerability: it is the world's largest absolute importer of seaborne diesel (10% of global seaborne imports) and could face rationing and 50% price increases within weeks.
- The ban would disrupt global markets already stressed by Middle East conflict, Ukraine-Russia war, and refinery shutdowns in Russia and China.
- Australia's agriculture and mining sectors, which depend heavily on diesel, would be hit hardest; the government may need to activate stage 3-4 fuel rationing protocols.
The dispute Whether Australia should address the immediate diesel crisis through domestic refining/storage (past policy failure) or through long-term energy system overhaul (electrification), and whether the government has acted decisively enough. · positions read across 24 posts and comments
Australia's previous governments failed to invest in domestic refining and storage, leaving the country dangerously dependent on imports.
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“If only we hadn't shutdown most of our refineries and sent all our oil to the US for storage.”
scoldog · Reddit ↗
Australia should electrify transport and shift to renewable energy rather than build more fossil fuel infrastructure.
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“It would be easier to electrify our economy and buy diesel and petrol as per normal, electric busses are perfect usage scenario.”
Chewystewbag · Reddit ↗
Labor government has failed to stand up to Trump and the US, unlike Canada and Europe, exacerbating Australia's energy crisis.
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“Utterly disgusted by Labor's refusal to speak up on Trump. They are the only ones cosying up to America when the rest of the world is seeking to decouple.”
theHoundLivessss · Reddit ↗
Electrification cannot be deployed fast enough to address the immediate diesel crisis; governments should have maintained refining capacity.
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“You wouldn't be able to build the electric bus depots in time to respond to this.”
fluffy_101994 · Reddit ↗
“This is the kind of thing which could have to see Australia reconsider our demand management and rationing program potentially go to stage 3 and stage 4.”
Saul Kavonic, Head of energy research, MST Marquee · ABC Australia ↗
Donald Trump US PresidentSaul Kavonic Head of energy research, MST Marquee
Scott Bessent US Treasury Secretary
How it unfolded 1 development · click the chart to see its coverage articlespostscomments
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background
Trump backs diesel export ban before Zelenskyy meeting — US President Donald Trump told reporters he supports restricting diesel exports to relieve domestic prices. The announcement comes amid record US diesel prices above $6.50/gallon and ahead of November midterm elections, with Republican politicians floating the idea.
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US Treasury examines feasibility of full or partial diesel export ban
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US government was examining whether a full or partial ban on diesel exports was feasible. Australia accounts for roughly 1% of global fuel demand but 10% of seaborne diesel imports, and does not directly import from the US but faces severe flow-on effects from global market disruption.
“I've said let's not send out the diesel. We make a lot of diesel … I've called for it. I've called for it within my people.”
— Donald Trump, US President · source -
first by ABC Australia, 1d ago · also Australian Broadcasting Corporation
1 more headline
- Analyst warns diesel could top $4 and rationing possible if US ban proceeds - ABC News & Headlines Australian Broadcasting Corporation · 1d ago
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The other thing that happened in the 70s was a massive public education campaign to encourage people to cut down on fuel consumption. As public transport and commercial activity (like transportation of food and goods) are fairly crucial, I'd expect there'd be some exemptions for those. Also, rationing does work over time. Just because it doesn't…
2 more of the top 3 · 24 posts in this stretch
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Yeah I've been saying since the start this is at some level a final attempt to regain / maintain control of the global energy supply by entrenching US control of global markets. I think to call it all one cohesive plan is probably giving them too much credit. But they've certainly had fun going off half cocked through a series of coincidental…
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We can get along with our neighbours and the region is relatively peaceful. The ASEAN all largely get along, and there haven't been any major wars in the region since Vietnam. Australia is a strategic backwater, and we should be grateful for that rather than trying to insert ourselves into affairs outside of our region. We need to be building…
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background
Analyst warns Australia faces diesel rationing and $4/litre prices — MST Marquee energy analyst Saul Kavonic warned Australia could face diesel rationing within weeks and prices climbing 50% to over $4/litre if the US export ban proceeds. He described the ban as the most worrying global fuel market development since the Middle East war, citing Australia's unique vulnerability as the world's largest absolute importer of seaborne diesel.
What people are saying 21 voices from 1 site · best of 24 · verbatim
- Could Australia have stockpiled unrefined crude oil over years to build energy independence?
- Will the US midterm elections in November halt Trump's export ban before it takes effect?
- Yesterday
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Not in Aus anyway. The Silverado EV can tow 5.6k kg and has an 800km range. Halve the range when towing is a good rule and you still get 400km.
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Well, if the US pulled out supporting Israel, and basically stayed out of the middle east for 3 years, there would be peace. Accidentally furnish Iran with nuclear weapons on the way out and there might be peace. Netenyahu would nuke the whole region before backing down or accepting defeat.
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You could, it would make a difference albeit small the battery's in these trucks are massive and some are as big as 500kwh and on a large trailer you could fit about 8kw at the high end of it so like 2% charging per hr
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They should cancel immediately, but they are morons and I expect they will waste loads of our money as usual.
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Was LNP or local bummers that they were opposing in favour of more cars? Asking seriously, local neighbours made huge noise against ir
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Utterly disgusted by Labor's refusal to speak up on Trump. They are the only ones cosying up to America when the rest of the world is seeking to decouple. Canada and Europe at least drew clear lines, Albo can't even say he disagrees with the war that is causing us to have an energy crisis.
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Sure but everything else in your life will still get expensive like farmed goods, transported goods etc
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Not like there isn’t a big event coming to Queensland in about 6 years that the investment would see an instant massive benefit from….. nah cling to old models.
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I can believe it, I went from around $90 for a full tank to $144 yesterday. It blew my mind how much more every heavy industries must be paying, it's scary.
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Still only the beginning. We need to decouple from fossil fuels as quickly as possible. And we need to stop believing that Capitalism (Capital = Power) will ever lead to anything more than sacrificing good for individual profit. It doesn't work.
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Nah, he just handed them Venezuela, they're gonna spit roast that country and praise him as a King tm. they can't wait for this war to continue, they're making megabucks!!
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LNP want to build refinerys as well as oil fracking pretty much anywhere possible. It would be easier to electrify our economy and buy diesel and petrol as per normal, electric busses are perfect usage scenario, road freight allows about 4-5 hrs of travel before needing recharging so works along the coast and the savings on diesel used are…
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They think that the government is going to ban 'free travel' by putting in traffic mitigation, pedestrian friendly neighborhoods and then restrict your ability to 'travel' to other neighbourhoods.
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But our dear leaders can't stop bending over for the terrorists causing this crisis.
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cheap to run vehicles with cameras and microphones in them reporting directly to China! /s seriously tho they were cheaper when petrol was <$2/L... now they're a steal!!!
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You wouldn't be able to build the electric bus depots in time to respond to this. Mickelturd could have at least tried to build new infrastructure for the future. Instead he threw his hands up in defeat without even bothering. Fucking joke.
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If only we hadn't shutdown most of our refineries and sent all our oil to the US for storage. Thanks LNP! Unrefined crude oil can last hundreds of years in storage. We could have been building a stockpile for years now. Oh well, I'm sure the US will give us our oil back if we ask nicely. Just like those submarines we purchased.
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Sounds like we should be switching to a more reliable, locally sourced energy system for transport. It would be helpful if that source also didn't dump loads of toxins into the air.
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They also scrapped the Gold Coast stage 4 light rail, for, say it with me, more diesel buses. Great job LNP.
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Midterms are in November. I'll wait to see if the Americans can take the toys away from the toddler before I join in on this overt doomposting
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I'm same boat as him but pretty much $50 for 1000km no solar or battery storage at home