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BusinessActive · 13h

Global bond sell-off deepens as Fed rate-hike odds jump to 70%

Rising Treasury yields hit decade-high levels on strong US economic data and inflation concerns, pressuring government finances worldwide.

newest coverage 4h agosummary written 4h ago6 pieces NewswiresGoogle NewsMastodon

What to know

  • US five-year Treasury yields broke above 5% for the first time since 2007, and 10-year yields posted their sharpest move since Trump's tariff announcement 18 months ago, on signs the economy is overheating.
  • A weak auction of five-year bonds signaled declining investor appetite for US government debt, while strong US business surveys pushed Fed rate-hike odds to about 70% for October.
  • The sell-off spread globally: UK gilt yields hit crisis-era highs, Japanese benchmark yields hit decades-high levels, and rising borrowing costs are eroding government fiscal headroom worldwide.
  • Investors fear the combination of robust economic growth and elevated price pressures will force the Federal Reserve to raise rates further to combat inflation, dampening equities and straining public finances.

Federal Reserve Central bank facing rate-hike pressureIpek Ozkardeskaya Senior analyst, SwissquoteRachel Reeves / John Healey UK Treasury officialsUS Treasury markets Primary shock point

Global bond sell-off deepens as Fed rate-hike odds jump to 70%
europesays.com

How it unfolded 3 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlesposts

Peak 3 pieces in one half hour at Yesterday, 11 PM; 6 pieces over 14 hours (5 articles · 1 post) Yesterday, 6:09 PM — 1 piece · 1 article — Google News 1Yesterday, 6:39 PM — quietYesterday, 7:09 PM — quietYesterday, 7:39 PM — quietYesterday, 8:09 PM — quietYesterday, 8:39 PM — quietYesterday, 9:09 PM — quietYesterday, 9:39 PM — quietYesterday, 10:09 PM — quietYesterday, 10:39 PM — quietYesterday, 11:09 PM — quietYesterday, 11:39 PM — 3 pieces · 3 articles — Google News 2, Newswires 1Today, 12:09 AM — quietToday, 12:39 AM — quietToday, 1:09 AM — quietToday, 1:39 AM — quietToday, 2:09 AM — quietToday, 2:39 AM — 1 piece · 1 article — Newswires 1Today, 3:09 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Today, 3:39 AM — quietToday, 4:09 AM — quietToday, 4:39 AM — quietToday, 5:09 AM — quietToday, 5:39 AM — quietToday, 6:09 AM — quietToday, 6:39 AM — quietToday, 7:09 AM — quietToday, 7:39 AM — quiet 123
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  1. background

    Five-year Treasury yields breach 5% for first time since 2007 — The sell-off drove five-year US Treasury yields over 5%, a milestone not reached in nearly two decades. Ten-year yields surged in their largest single-day move since Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement almost 18 months ago.

  2. 3

    Global bond selloff intensifies across markets

    The bond rout continued to widen, affecting equities globally as rising borrowing costs ripple through financial markets and damp growth expectations.

    “With bond prices sliding, the yield (or rate of return) on five-year US Treasuries was driven over 5% for the first time since 2007.”
    — Financial Times, Market analysis · source
    1. 1 outlet Global Selloff in Bonds Intensifies (Video)

      first by Bloomberg Markets, 5h ago

  3. 2

    Global bond yields spike amid overheating concerns

    Bond sell-off spread across major economies. UK 10-year gilt yields jumped to their highest since the 2007 financial crisis, and Japanese benchmark bond yields hit multi-decade highs. Rising yields strain government finances and erode fiscal headroom for borrowing.

    “With unemployment at 4.1% and growth running above trend, the US economy is showing signs of modest overheating. The Federal Reserve will therefore be firmly on notice.”
    — Financial markets analyst
    1. 2 outlets Global bond sell-off deepens as oil prices spike

      first by The Telegraph, 8h ago · also FT

      1 more headline
  4. background

    Strong US business survey cited as trigger for rate-hike bets — A flash PMI survey showed US business activity expanding at the fastest pace in more than five years, with new orders surging and manufacturing hiring near recent peaks. The data, combined with elevated input costs, prompted traders to price in about 70% odds of a Fed rate increase in October.

  5. 1

    Weak US five-year bond auction triggers sell-off

    A US government five-year bond auction attracted low demand, signaling waning investor appetite for Treasury debt. This sparked a broader sell-off as traders reassessed interest-rate expectations.