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YouGov poll shows Reform collapsing to third place, Labour heading hung Parliament

A major MRP survey projects Reform UK would win just 123 seats, down 188 from last year's prediction, while Labour leads with 241 seats in a fragmented Commons.

newest coverage 1d agosummary written 1d ago8 pieces Google NewsRedditMastodonNewswires

What to know

  • Reform UK has collapsed from a projected 311 seats (first place) last year to 123 seats (third place), losing 188 seats—a dramatic reversal for Nigel Farage's party.
  • Labour is projected to lead with 241 seats but falls 85 short of the 326-seat majority, facing a hung Parliament.
  • The fragmented left can form viable coalitions (Labour-Lib Dem-Plaid Cymru or Labour-SNP), whereas no working majority exists for a Reform-Conservative combination on the right.
  • The poll suggests the UK political system now punishes fragmentation differently by ideology: left-wing vote fragmentation translates efficiently into seats, while right-wing fragmentation does not.

“While Labour alone remain well short of a majority, there are a wide range of possible 'coalition of the left' options open to them to build a majority in a way where there just simply isn't for Reform and the Conservatives on the right.”

Patrick English, Head of elections at YouGov · The Independent ↗

Nigel FarageNigel Farage Reform UK leaderAndy BurnhamAndy Burnham Labour leaderKemi BadenochKemi Badenoch Conservative leaderPatrick English Head of elections at YouGov

YouGov poll shows Reform collapsing to third place, Labour heading hung Parliament
independent.co.uk

How it unfolded 2 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlesposts

Peak 2 pieces in one hour at Sep 23, 6 AM; 8 pieces over 3 days (4 articles · 4 posts) Sep 22, 5 AM — 1 piece · 1 article — Google News 1Sep 22, 6 AM — quietSep 22, 7 AM — quietSep 22, 8 AM — quietSep 22, 9 AM — quietSep 22, 10 AM — quietSep 22, 11 AM — quietSep 22, 12 PM — quietSep 22, 1 PM — quietSep 22, 2 PM — quietSep 22, 3 PM — quietSep 22, 4 PM — quietSep 22, 5 PM — quietSep 22, 6 PM — quietSep 22, 7 PM — quietSep 22, 8 PM — quietSep 22, 9 PM — quietSep 22, 10 PM — quietSep 22, 11 PM — quietSep 23, 12 AM — quietSep 23, 1 AM — quietSep 23, 2 AM — quietSep 23, 3 AM — quietSep 23, 4 AM — quietSep 23, 5 AM — quietSep 23, 6 AM — 2 pieces · 2 articles — Google News 2Sep 23, 7 AM — quietSep 23, 8 AM — quietSep 23, 9 AM — quietSep 23, 10 AM — quietSep 23, 11 AM — quietSep 23, 12 PM — quietSep 23, 1 PM — quietSep 23, 2 PM — quietSep 23, 3 PM — quietSep 23, 4 PM — quietSep 23, 5 PM — quietSep 23, 6 PM — quietSep 23, 7 PM — quietSep 23, 8 PM — quietSep 23, 9 PM — quietSep 23, 10 PM — quietSep 23, 11 PM — quietYesterday, 12 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Reddit 1Yesterday, 1 AM — quietYesterday, 2 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Yesterday, 3 AM — quietYesterday, 4 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Reddit 1Yesterday, 5 AM — quietYesterday, 6 AM — quietYesterday, 7 AM — quietYesterday, 8 AM — quietYesterday, 9 AM — quietYesterday, 10 AM — quietYesterday, 11 AM — 1 piece · 1 article — Newswires 1Yesterday, 12 PM — quietYesterday, 1 PM — quietYesterday, 2 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Yesterday, 3 PM — quietYesterday, 4 PM — quietYesterday, 5 PM — quietYesterday, 6 PM — quietYesterday, 7 PM — quietYesterday, 8 PM — quietYesterday, 9 PM — quietYesterday, 10 PM — quietYesterday, 11 PM — quietToday, 12 AM — quietToday, 1 AM — quietToday, 2 AM — quietToday, 3 AM — quietToday, 4 AM — quietToday, 5 AM — quietToday, 6 AM — quietToday, 7 AM — quietToday, 8 AM — quietToday, 9 AM — quietToday, 10 AM — quietToday, 11 AM — quietToday, 12 PM — quietToday, 1 PM — quietToday, 2 PM — quiet 1–2
Sep 23yesterdaynow · 3:47 PM ET
  1. 2

    Reform defectors Jenrick and Braverman projected to lose seats to Conservatives

    The YouGov MRP poll projects that Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman, both Conservative defectors to Reform earlier this year, would lose their seats back to the Tories. Labour's Health Secretary Yvette Cooper is also projected to lose her seat, to Reform.

    “YouGov's latest projections put Labour clearly ahead of both Reform and the Conservatives in terms of seats, while being only a fraction ahead of each on vote share.”
    — Patrick English, Head of elections at YouGov · source
    • Fife4Europe@mastodon.scot

      The latest YouGov MRP poll predicting a hung parliament with Labour leading on 241 seats shows why piecemeal policies fail. Voters want bold action on growth and public services, not timid compromise. Rejoining the EU single market is the key. Why hold back? 🤔 # FBPE https://www. independent.co.uk/news/uk/poli…

      Fife4Europe@mastodon.scotMastodon1d agoview on Mastodon ↗
  2. background

    YouGov analyst: left-wing coalition paths exist where right-wing ones don't — Patrick English of YouGov notes that while Labour alone falls short of a majority, the fragmented left can combine through various coalitions (Labour-Lib Dem-Plaid, or Labour-SNP), whereas no viable majority-building coalition exists for Reform and the Conservatives on the right.

  3. 1

    YouGov MRP poll projects hung Parliament with Labour ahead

    A major YouGov MRP survey released this week projects Labour would win 241 seats, the Conservatives 130 seats, and Reform UK 123 seats in a hung Parliament. The result represents a dramatic reversal from last year's poll, which predicted Reform would secure 311 seats and emerge as the largest party.

Also covered reported alongside — the timeline has no entry for these yet

  1. 1 outlet Reform On Course To Win Fewer Seats Than Labour Or Tories At General Election

    first by HuffPost UK, 3d ago

    2 more headlines

and 1 smaller piece