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PoliticsQuiet 4d · day 4

YouGov MRP poll: hung parliament, Labour largest party under Burnham

New mega-poll shows Reform UK and the Conservatives neck-and-neck for second place, with Labour 85 seats short of a majority.

newest coverage 3d agosummary written 3d ago6 pieces62 likes & upvotes32 comments RedditXNewswires

What to know

  • YouGov's MRP model, commissioned with Sky News and the Times, projects Labour as the largest party with 241 seats but 85 short of a majority.
  • Reform UK (123 seats) and the Conservatives (130 seats) are projected as effectively tied for second place.
  • The projection is a substantial improvement for Labour compared with a year-ago MRP that put the party at 144 seats and Reform close to a majority.
  • 37% of constituencies are modelled as decided by margins of five points or less, rising to 67% of Reform-projected seats, underscoring high uncertainty.

“Labour would be the largest party in a hung parliament, were an election held tomorrow, winning 241 seats in our model's central estimates”

YouGov, Pollster · Guardian politics live blog ↗ · Sep 23

Andy BurnhamAndy Burnham Labour leaderKemi BadenochKemi Badenoch Conservative leaderSam Coates Sky News deputy political editorYouGov Pollster

YouGov MRP poll: hung parliament, Labour largest party under Burnham
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How it unfolded 2 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlespostscomments

Peak 4 pieces in one hour at Sep 24, 1 AM; 6 pieces over 4 days (1 article · 2 posts · 3 comments) Sep 24, 12 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — X 1Sep 24, 1 AM — 4 pieces · 1 post · 3 comments — Reddit 4Sep 24, 2 AM — quietSep 24, 3 AM — 1 piece · 1 article — Newswires 1Sep 24, 4 AM — quietSep 24, 5 AM — quietSep 24, 6 AM — quietSep 24, 7 AM — quietSep 24, 8 AM — quietSep 24, 9 AM — quietSep 24, 10 AM — quietSep 24, 11 AM — quietSep 24, 12 PM — quietSep 24, 1 PM — quietSep 24, 2 PM — quietSep 24, 3 PM — quietSep 24, 4 PM — quietSep 24, 5 PM — quietSep 24, 6 PM — quietSep 24, 7 PM — quietSep 24, 8 PM — quietSep 24, 9 PM — quietSep 24, 10 PM — quietSep 24, 11 PM — quietSep 25, 12 AM — quietSep 25, 1 AM — quietSep 25, 2 AM — quietSep 25, 3 AM — quietSep 25, 4 AM — quietSep 25, 5 AM — quietSep 25, 6 AM — quietSep 25, 7 AM — quietSep 25, 8 AM — quietSep 25, 9 AM — quietSep 25, 10 AM — quietSep 25, 11 AM — quietSep 25, 12 PM — quietSep 25, 1 PM — quietSep 25, 2 PM — quietSep 25, 3 PM — quietSep 25, 4 PM — quietSep 25, 5 PM — quietSep 25, 6 PM — quietSep 25, 7 PM — quietSep 25, 8 PM — quietSep 25, 9 PM — quietSep 25, 10 PM — quietSep 25, 11 PM — quietSep 26, 12 AM — quietSep 26, 1 AM — quietSep 26, 2 AM — quietSep 26, 3 AM — quietSep 26, 4 AM — quietSep 26, 5 AM — quietSep 26, 6 AM — quietSep 26, 7 AM — quietSep 26, 8 AM — quietSep 26, 9 AM — quietSep 26, 10 AM — quietSep 26, 11 AM — quietSep 26, 12 PM — quietSep 26, 1 PM — quietSep 26, 2 PM — quietSep 26, 3 PM — quietSep 26, 4 PM — quietSep 26, 5 PM — quietSep 26, 6 PM — quietSep 26, 7 PM — quietSep 26, 8 PM — quietSep 26, 9 PM — quietSep 26, 10 PM — quietSep 26, 11 PM — quietYesterday, 12 AM — quietYesterday, 1 AM — quietYesterday, 2 AM — quietYesterday, 3 AM — quietYesterday, 4 AM — quietYesterday, 5 AM — quietYesterday, 6 AM — quietYesterday, 7 AM — quietYesterday, 8 AM — quietYesterday, 9 AM — quietYesterday, 10 AM — quietYesterday, 11 AM — quietYesterday, 12 PM — quietYesterday, 1 PM — quietYesterday, 2 PM — quietYesterday, 3 PM — quietYesterday, 4 PM — quietYesterday, 5 PM — quietYesterday, 6 PM — quietYesterday, 7 PM — quietYesterday, 8 PM — quietYesterday, 9 PM — quietYesterday, 10 PM — quietYesterday, 11 PM — quiet 12
Sep 25Sep 26yesterdaynow · 12:01 AM ET
  1. 2

    YouGov frames result as improvement for Labour on last year

    YouGov's own summary notes the projected 241 seats is a net loss of 170 for Labour since 2024, but is a marked recovery from its MRP a year earlier, which had put Labour at just 144 seats with Reform close to a majority; it also flags Reform UK now level with the Conservatives and highlights that 37% of seats are decided by margins of five points or less.

    “Reform UK are now neck-and-neck with the Conservatives, with the parties respectively on 123 and 130 seats in our median projection…”
    — YouGov
  2. 1

    YouGov-Sky-Times MRP poll projects hung parliament

    The mega-poll models Labour as the largest party with 241 seats, the Conservatives on 130, Reform UK on 123, Liberal Democrats on 71, SNP 40, Plaid Cymru 15 and Greens 9 — leaving Labour 85 seats short of the 326 needed for a majority.

    “EXC: YouGov-Sky-Times MRP projects a Hung Parliament with Labour as the largest party in new poll ** Labour on 241. Tories on 130. Reform on 123. LDs on 71. SNP 40, Plaid 15, Greens 9.”
    — Sam Coates
    1. 1 outlet Labour likely to be biggest party in hung parliament, mega poll suggests – UK politics live

      first by Guardian, 3d ago

    • EXC: YouGov-Sky-Times MRP projects a Hung Parliament with Labour as the largest party in new poll ** Labour on 241. Tories on 130. Reform on 123. LDs on 71. SNP 40, Plaid 15, Greens 9. ** Andy Burnham's Labour come top but 85 seats short of a the 326 official winning line. The

      @SamCoatesSkyX3d ago62▲view on X ↗
    2 more of the top 3 · 4 posts in this stretch

    • I think given the present polling and with the caveat that two years is a very long time in politics, that currently looks a pretty sound assumption - but my guess would be that Labour would be both closer to a majority than this suggests due to tactical voting against Reform and have lost a few more central urban and university seats to the…

      Bibemusr/ukpolitics3d agoview on r/ukpolitics ↗

    • What would be the outcome of this? I don’t see labour engaging with the SNP for a coalition without indyref2 becoming a thing, which I feel is unlikely. Would they just go for a minority government? Surely another election would follow shortly afterwards

      IncomingBallsr/ukpolitics3d agoview on r/ukpolitics ↗
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