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PoliticsQuiet 6d · day 7

YouGov MRP: Labour largest party in hung parliament, down 170 seats since 2024

Fresh polling model shows Labour would need support from at least two other parties to govern, reversing Reform UK's near-majority from last year.

newest coverage 5d agosummary written 5d ago5 pieces394 likes & upvotes54 comments Google NewsNewswiresRedditX

What to know

  • Labour remains largest party in YouGov's hung parliament projection but has lost 170 seats since 2024, leaving them 85 short of a majority.
  • Reform UK's support has collapsed to 123 seats from near-majority territory a year ago, while Conservatives hold steady at 130 seats.
  • Labour would need support from at least two other parties to govern, likely requiring coalitions with Lib Dems (71 seats) and Scottish or Welsh nationalists to pass legislation.

“Labour on 241 seats, substantially down from the 411 the party won in the 2024 election (a net loss of 170) and 85 seats short of the 326 required for an overall majority.”

YouGov, Polling firm · YouGov ↗ · Sep 24, 12:00 PM

Andy BurnhamAndy Burnham Prime MinisterKeir StarmerKeir Starmer Former Labour leaderNigel FarageNigel Farage Reform UK leaderYouGov Polling firm

YouGov MRP: Labour largest party in hung parliament, down 170 seats since 2024
yougov.com

How it unfolded 2 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlesposts

Peak 2 pieces in two hours at Sep 23, 6 AM; 5 pieces over 7 days (3 articles · 2 posts) Sep 23, 6 AM — 2 pieces · 2 articles — Google News 2Sep 23, 8 AM — quietSep 23, 10 AM — quietSep 23, 12 PM — quietSep 23, 2 PM — quietSep 23, 4 PM — quietSep 23, 6 PM — quietSep 23, 8 PM — quietSep 23, 10 PM — quietSep 24, 12 AM — quietSep 24, 2 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — X 1Sep 24, 4 AM — quietSep 24, 6 AM — quietSep 24, 8 AM — quietSep 24, 10 AM — 1 piece · 1 article — Newswires 1Sep 24, 12 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — Reddit 1Sep 24, 2 PM — quietSep 24, 4 PM — quietSep 24, 6 PM — quietSep 24, 8 PM — quietSep 24, 10 PM — quietSep 25, 12 AM — quietSep 25, 2 AM — quietSep 25, 4 AM — quietSep 25, 6 AM — quietSep 25, 8 AM — quietSep 25, 10 AM — quietSep 25, 12 PM — quietSep 25, 2 PM — quietSep 25, 4 PM — quietSep 25, 6 PM — quietSep 25, 8 PM — quietSep 25, 10 PM — quietSep 26, 12 AM — quietSep 26, 2 AM — quietSep 26, 4 AM — quietSep 26, 6 AM — quietSep 26, 8 AM — quietSep 26, 10 AM — quietSep 26, 12 PM — quietSep 26, 2 PM — quietSep 26, 4 PM — quietSep 26, 6 PM — quietSep 26, 8 PM — quietSep 26, 10 PM — quietSep 27, 12 AM — quietSep 27, 2 AM — quietSep 27, 4 AM — quietSep 27, 6 AM — quietSep 27, 8 AM — quietSep 27, 10 AM — quietSep 27, 12 PM — quietSep 27, 2 PM — quietSep 27, 4 PM — quietSep 27, 6 PM — quietSep 27, 8 PM — quietSep 27, 10 PM — quietSep 28, 12 AM — quietSep 28, 2 AM — quietSep 28, 4 AM — quietSep 28, 6 AM — quietSep 28, 8 AM — quietSep 28, 10 AM — quietSep 28, 12 PM — quietSep 28, 2 PM — quietSep 28, 4 PM — quietSep 28, 6 PM — quietSep 28, 8 PM — quietSep 28, 10 PM — quietYesterday, 12 AM — quietYesterday, 2 AM — quietYesterday, 4 AM — quietYesterday, 6 AM — quietYesterday, 8 AM — quietYesterday, 10 AM — quietYesterday, 12 PM — quietYesterday, 2 PM — quietYesterday, 4 PM — quietYesterday, 6 PM — quietYesterday, 8 PM — quietYesterday, 10 PM — quietToday, 12 AM — quietToday, 2 AM — quietToday, 4 AM — quiet 12
Sep 24Sep 25Sep 26Sep 27Sep 28yesterdaynow · 5:56 AM ET
  1. 2

    YouGov posts detailed seat projections on social media

    YouGov releases detailed seat breakdowns across all major parties on X, including projections for Conservative recovery to 130 seats and Reform UK's sharp retreat to 123 seats.

    “Labour would be the largest party in a hung parliament, were an election held tomorrow…”
    — YouGov

    • YouGov's September 2026 MRP projects that Labour would be the largest party in a hung parliament, were an election held tomorrow Labour: 241 (-170 from 2024) Conservatives: 130 (+9) Reform UK: 123 (+118) Lib Dems: 71 (-1) SNP: 40 (+31) Plaid Cymru: 15 (+11) Greens: 9 (+5)

      @YouGovX6d ago394▲view on X ↗
  2. 1

    YouGov releases MRP poll on hung parliament scenario

    YouGov releases its first MRP model since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister, showing Labour as the largest party in a projected hung parliament with 241 seats, down from 411 in 2024.

    1. 1 outlet YouGov MRP shows Labour would be the largest party in a hung parliament, were an election held tomorrow

      first by YouGov, 5d ago

    2. 1 outlet Labour likely to be biggest party in hung parliament, mega poll suggests

      first by The Guardian, 6d ago