Trump's Iran attack shatters Saudi Arabia's Middle East security deal
Riyadh's bet on Trump diplomacy collapses as U.S. unwilling to counter Iranian threats to oil exports.
What to know
- Trump's attack on Iran has collapsed the post-Cold War security arrangement where the U.S. guaranteed Middle East stability in exchange for Saudi basing rights and oil cooperation, leaving Riyadh without a replacement security guarantor.
- Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure is under coordinated pressure: tankers blocked in the Persian Gulf, Red Sea threats, and its largest pipeline shut down after drone attack, with the U.S. unwilling to intervene.
- Saudi Arabia's strategy of investing billions to cultivate Trump's favor has failed—Crown Prince MBS was denied help after calling twice for assistance following Houthi attacks.
Saudi Arabia's reliance on Trump was inevitable but strategically unwise given Trump's unpredictability and lack of commitment to the traditional U.S. security role.
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“Saudi Arabia wrongly believed that Trump's destruction could be limited to the United States itself and that a buyable Washington could keep serving it well.”
tinkel@mastodon.social · Mastodon ↗
Saudi Arabia had no real strategic choice—as the weaker regional actor, it was compelled to seek U.S. backing despite the risks.
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“He had no real choice though. Saudi Arabia is dependent on the US for its security because it is far weaker than its regional enemies in various critical ways.”
barryvm · Reddit ↗
“Saudi Arabia is in serious trouble. Its global influence primarily comes from its leading position as an oil producer and the money resulting from that role, but now the Middle East is on fire.”
Nicholas Grossman, Foreign Policy analyst · Foreign Policy ↗
Nicholas Grossman Foreign Policy analyst
Donald Trump U.S. PresidentSaudi Arabia / Crown Prince MBS Key regional power dependent on U.S. security
How it unfolded 3 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlespostscomments
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Commenter emphasizes Saudi Arabia's failed investment in Trump relationship
A Mastodon user notes that Saudi Crown Prince MBS called Trump twice for help after Houthi attacks and was declined, characterizing the billions Saudi Arabia spent courting Trump and Kushner as resulting in negative returns.
“MBS called Trump for help twice after Houthi attacks and was declined. All those billions spent to Trump&Kusner resulted negative return.”
— tinkel@mastodon.social -
He had no real choice though. Saudi Arabia is dependent on the US for its security because it is far weaker than its regional enemies in various critical ways. So of course he would bribe Trump and take his side.
1 more of the top 2 · 2 posts in this stretch
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We need more of this analysis. And It needs to be free. Im tired of these free, unvetted/ bullshit rags and their hot takes.
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Social media amplifies analysis of Saudi Arabia's regional crisis and U.S. disengagement
Posts on Mastodon share and comment on the Grossman piece, highlighting that Saudi tankers are blocked in the Persian Gulf and threatened in the Red Sea, while the country's largest oil pipeline was shut down after a drone attack.
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C
Saudi Arabia is in serious trouble. Its global influence primarily comes from its leading position as an oil producer and the money resulting from that role, but now the Middle East is on fire. Today, Saudi tankers are blocked in the Persian Gulf and under threat in the Red Sea, and the country’s biggest oil pipeline had to shut down after a drone…
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Grossman argues Trump broke the U.S.-Saudi security arrangement beyond repair
Nicholas Grossman publishes analysis in Foreign Policy titled "Saudi Arabia Bribed the Wrong People," contending that Trump's attack on Iran has destroyed the post-Cold War deal whereby the U.S. provided security and stability in the Middle East in exchange for Saudi basing rights and oil cooperation. The piece argues Saudi Arabia now lacks a replacement security guarantor.
“S. President Donald Trump's attack on Iran broke that arrangement beyond repair, and Saudi Arabia doesn't have a replacement.”
— Nicholas Grossman -
2 outlets Saudi Arabia Bribed the Wrong People
first by Mastodon, 1d ago · also Foreign Policy
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For decades, the Middle East rested on a deal. US provides: security, air defense, relative stability, deter Iran, help autocrats stay in power Saudis and other Gulf Arab states provide: basing rights, cooperation on counterterrorism, smooth flow of oil Trump broke that. And it's not coming back. Saudi Arabia Bribed the Wrong ...
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