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ClimateQuiet 10d · day 13

Study doubles Thwaites glacier sea-level rise projections by century's end

New research accounts for tidal oscillations at the glacier's grounding zone, showing it could contribute twice as much to coastal flooding as previous models predicted.

newest coverage 9d agosummary written 12d ago7 pieces46 likes & upvotes1 comments NewswiresGoogle NewsMastodonBluesky

What to know

  • New UCLA study shows Thwaites could contribute twice as much to sea level rise (3 cm vs. 1.5 cm by 2100) due to previously unmodeled tidal effects at its grounding zone.
  • The glacier sits atop warm ocean water that creates expanding cracks and channels when the grounding zone oscillates with tides, accelerating collapse.
  • Thwaites could become permanently unpinned from the seafloor as early as 2038; if it fails entirely, the entire West Antarctic ice sheet could follow, raising seas by up to 10 feet.

“As it bobs up and down, warm water pushes underneath the glacier — creating cracks and miles-long channels that allow even more melting.”

Grist (reporting Poinelli's research), Science journalism · Grist ↗ · Oct 25

Mattia Poinelli Glaciologist, UCLA; lead authorThwaites glacier Antarctic glacier

Study doubles Thwaites glacier sea-level rise projections by century's end
grist.org

How it unfolded 1 development · click the chart to see its coverage articlesposts

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  1. 1

    Study projects Thwaites could become unpinned as early as 2038

    The new model shows Thwaites has a 60 percent chance of becoming permanently unpinned from the seafloor by century's end, potentially as soon as 2038. If current warming continues, the glacier could contribute 3 centimeters of sea level rise by 2100—double previous projections.

    “There are many other unknowns, but this solves a specific and very important piece of the puzzle.”
    — Mattia Poinelli, Glaciologist, UCLA; lead author · source
    • joachim@boitam.eu

      La plus grosse histoire de ce siècle ça sera le glacier Thwaites. https:// grist.org/science/thwaites-run away-climate-disaster-new-studies-show/

      joachim@boitam.euMastodon9d ago1▲view on Mastodon ↗
    1 more of the top 2 · 2 posts in this stretch
    • climatenewsnow@mastodon.social

      This "Doomsday Glacier" could drown coastlines around the world. And the outlook is getting worse. As it melts away faster than ever, scientists are racing to get a better understanding of when it might fail. # ClimateChange # GlobalWarming https:// grist.org/science/thwaites-run away-climate-disaster-new-studies-show/

      climatenewsnow@mastodon.socialMastodon12d agoview on Mastodon ↗
    all of them →
  2. background

    UCLA team publishes new Thwaites model in Nature Communications — A study by Mattia Poinelli's team at UCLA becomes the first to account for tidal oscillations at Thwaites' grounding zone—where the glacier rests on the seabed. Previous models had treated this boundary as fixed, missing a key mechanism that allows warm water to create cracks and channels that accelerate melting.

Also covered reported alongside — the timeline has no entry for these yet

  1. 3 outlets Thwaites is a runaway climate disaster. New studies show how.

    first by Grist, 11d ago · also The Energy Mix, Yahoo News Canada

    1 more headline

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