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HealthQuiet 8d · day 15

Boston University study estimates 75% of deceased NFL players had CTE

New JAMA Network Open analysis corrects for brain-donor selection bias, producing the highest NFL CTE prevalence estimate to date.

What to know

  • New JAMA Network Open study estimates 75% of NFL players who died 2008-2023 likely had CTE, the highest estimate to date.
  • The method adjusts for selection bias: among 396 brain donors, 93.5% had CTE, but donors were about five times more likely to have had cognitive symptoms than nondonors.
  • Researchers and outside experts stress the figure is a statistical estimate from a model, not a direct measurement, and the study can't determine CTE rates in living players.
  • The NFL did not issue a new statement, instead pointing to its prior response citing safety initiatives and player resources.

“It's hard to learn what the guys who built the game have suffered through”

Matt Hasselbeck, Former NFL quarterback, study ambassador · CBS News ↗ · Oct 27

Julia Gallini Lead author, Boston University researcherYorghos Tripodis Senior author, BU professor of biostatisticsMatt HasselbeckMatt Hasselbeck Former NFL quarterback, study ambassadorNFL LeagueRussell Lonser Outside expert, Ohio State University neurosurgery professor

Boston University study estimates 75% of deceased NFL players had CTE
cnn.com

How it unfolded 2 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlesposts

Peak 33 pieces in 4h at Oct 28, 10 AM; 117 pieces over 15 days (55 articles · 1 video · 30 posts · 31 comments) Oct 28, 10 AM — 33 pieces · 20 articles · 11 posts · 2 comments — Newswires 11, Google News 9, Mastodon 6, +2 moreOct 28, 2 PM — 22 pieces · 17 articles · 4 posts · 1 comment — Google News 15, Mastodon 3, Newswires 2, +2 moreOct 28, 6 PM — 11 pieces · 4 articles · 1 video · 5 posts · 1 comment — Mastodon 5, Newswires 4, Reddit 1, +1 moreOct 28, 10 PM — 3 pieces · 2 articles · 1 comment — Newswires 2, Reddit 1Oct 29, 2 AM — 3 pieces · 3 posts — Mastodon 3Oct 29, 6 AM — 4 pieces · 2 articles · 1 post · 1 comment — Newswires 2, Mastodon 1, Reddit 1Oct 29, 10 AM — 3 pieces · 3 articles — Newswires 2, Google News 1Oct 29, 2 PM — 3 pieces · 2 articles · 1 post — Newswires 2, Mastodon 1Oct 29, 6 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Oct 29, 10 PM — quietOct 30, 2 AM — quietOct 30, 6 AM — quietOct 30, 10 AM — 1 piece · 1 article — Newswires 1Oct 30, 2 PM — quietOct 30, 6 PM — quietOct 30, 10 PM — quietOct 31, 2 AM — quietOct 31, 6 AM — quietOct 31, 10 AM — quietOct 31, 2 PM — quietOct 31, 6 PM — quietOct 31, 10 PM — quietNov 1, 1 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Reddit 1Nov 1, 5 AM — 3 pieces · 1 post · 2 comments — Reddit 2, Mastodon 1Nov 1, 9 AM — quietNov 1, 1 PM — quietNov 1, 5 PM — quietNov 1, 9 PM — quietNov 2, 1 AM — quietNov 2, 5 AM — quietNov 2, 9 AM — quietNov 2, 1 PM — 1 piece · 1 article — Newswires 1Nov 2, 5 PM — quietNov 2, 9 PM — 1 piece · 1 comment — Reddit 1Nov 3, 1 AM — quietNov 3, 5 AM — quietNov 3, 9 AM — 16 pieces · 2 articles · 1 post · 13 comments — Hacker News 14, Newswires 2Nov 3, 1 PM — 8 pieces · 8 comments — Hacker News 8Nov 3, 5 PM — 1 piece · 1 comment — Hacker News 1Nov 3, 9 PM — 2 pieces · 1 article · 1 post — Newswires 1, Mastodon 1Nov 4, 1 AM — quietNov 4, 5 AM — quietNov 4, 9 AM — quietNov 4, 1 PM — quietNov 4, 5 PM — quietNov 4, 9 PM — quietNov 5, 1 AM — quietNov 5, 5 AM — quietNov 5, 9 AM — quietNov 5, 1 PM — quietNov 5, 5 PM — quietNov 5, 9 PM — quietNov 6, 1 AM — quietNov 6, 5 AM — quietNov 6, 9 AM — quietNov 6, 1 PM — quietNov 6, 5 PM — quietNov 6, 9 PM — quietNov 7, 1 AM — quietNov 7, 5 AM — quietNov 7, 9 AM — quietNov 7, 1 PM — quietNov 7, 5 PM — quietNov 7, 9 PM — quietNov 8, 1 AM — quietNov 8, 5 AM — quietNov 8, 9 AM — quietNov 8, 1 PM — quietNov 8, 5 PM — quietNov 8, 9 PM — quietNov 9, 1 AM — quietNov 9, 5 AM — quietNov 9, 9 AM — quietNov 9, 1 PM — quietNov 9, 5 PM — quietNov 9, 9 PM — quietNov 10, 1 AM — quietNov 10, 5 AM — quietNov 10, 9 AM — quietNov 10, 1 PM — quietNov 10, 5 PM — quietNov 10, 9 PM — quietYesterday, 1 AM — quietYesterday, 5 AM — quietYesterday, 9 AM — quietYesterday, 1 PM — quietYesterday, 5 PM — quietYesterday, 9 PM — quiet 1–2
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2Nov 4Nov 6Nov 8now · 12:38 AM ET
  1. 2

    Outside expert cautions estimate is model-dependent

    A neurosurgeon not involved in the study called it the best attempt yet to correct for selection bias but stressed it remains a modeled estimate rather than a direct measurement.

    “it is an estimate from a model and should be read that way.”
    — Russell Lonser, Ohio State University
    • phillewis.bsky.social

      A new study found that about three in four deceased NFL players from 2008 to 2023 had CTE

      phillewis.bsky.socialBluesky14d ago550▲view on Bluesky ↗
    2 more of the top 3 · 40 posts in this stretch
    • John Urschel cited the CTE risk when he decided to quit the NFL and pursue his math PhD. He just published https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.06785 which seems to be a significant result from where I'm standing, but I can't really tell what's what with math at that level.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Urschel> In August 2015, an incident gave him a…

      1-moreHacker News8d agoview on Hacker News ↗
    • Also, this doesn't actually tell us what the risks are today, only in the past. How old were these guys? When did they play? Helmet technology has changed quite a bit, but the game is also faster now. This study basically says, we know football used to be really dangerous. It probably still is, but we won't have data on that until this generation…

      regnak1r/science9d agoview on r/science ↗
    all of them →
  2. background

    NFL points to prior safety statement in response — Asked about the new study, the NFL referred reporters to a statement it had issued in response to the earlier August study, citing efforts to reduce concussions and head impacts.

  3. background

    Researchers detail method correcting for donor selection bias — The team found former players with cognitive symptoms were about five times more likely to have their brains donated, and recalculated the observed 93.5% donor rate down to an estimated 74.5% prevalence across all deceased players.

  4. 1

    New BU study estimates 75% of deceased NFL players had CTE

    Published in JAMA Network Open, the study analyzed 2,362 former NFL players who died from 2008-2023, including 396 brain donors of whom 93.5% had CTE, and used statistical adjustment to estimate 74.5% prevalence across the full group.

    “With CTE consistently found in less than 1% of donors to community brain banks, an estimated 75% prevalence among NFL players who died over a 16-year period is concerning…”
    — Julia Gallini, lead author
    1. 22 outlets first by NBC News, 14d ago · also CBS News, Yahoo, WJCL, CNN, Breaking News, Latest News and Videos, Guardian +15 · read ↗

    2. first by Scientific American, 14d ago · also Science News

      1 more headline
    2 more claims →
  5. background

    BU's earlier study puts CTE prevalence at 25%-98% — An August study from the same group estimated anywhere from 25% to 98% of ex-NFL players who died between 2016 and 2021 had CTE, a wide range BU attributed to uncertainty about how representative brain donors were of the full player population.

Also covered reported alongside — the timeline has no entry for these yet

  1. first by NYT Health, 14d ago · also NYT Science

and 3 smaller pieces

What people are saying 21 voices from 4 sites · best of 40 · verbatim