conv.

All stories
ClimateQuiet 10d · day 10

Climate models underestimate feedback loops that could accelerate warming by 0.2–0.4°C

Major studies show greenhouse gases release cascading warming effects that current UN models fail to account for, potentially shortening timelines to climate thresholds by 25%.

newest coverage 10d agosummary written 9d ago3 pieces20 likes & upvotes2 comments NewswiresMastodonBluesky

What to know

  • UN climate models do not account for critical feedback loops—thawing permafrost, wildfires, warming lakes and wetlands—that release additional greenhouse gases and accelerate warming beyond current projections.
  • Recent peer-reviewed research quantifies these overlooked effects at 0.2–0.4°C of additional warming this century and a 25% reduction in time before breaching 1.5°C and 2°C thresholds, making global climate goals significantly harder to achieve.
  • An international model-intercomparison project led by Spark Climate Solutions aims to improve climate model accuracy, with results expected to inform the UN's 2029 climate assessment and guide stronger emissions-reduction targets.

“A study in Environmental Research Letters in September found that the additional carbon dioxide and methane released from thawing permafrost, intensifying wildfires, hotter lakes and reservoirs, and wetter, warmer wetlands alone could drive global average temperatures up 0.2 °C to 0.4 °C this century.”

James Temple, MIT Tech Review contributor · MIT Technology Review ↗ · Oct 28

Sam Abernethy Climate scientist, lead authorSpark Climate Solutions Nonprofit research groupUnited Nations Climate policy authority

Climate models underestimate feedback loops that could accelerate warming by 0.2–0.4°C
technologyreview.com

How it unfolded 1 development · click the chart to see its coverage articlesposts

Peak 1 piece in 3h at Oct 29, 5 AM; 3 pieces over 10 days (1 article · 2 posts) Oct 29, 5 AM — 1 piece · 1 article — Newswires 1Oct 29, 8 AM — quietOct 29, 11 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Bluesky 1Oct 29, 2 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Oct 29, 5 PM — quietOct 29, 8 PM — quietOct 29, 11 PM — quietOct 30, 2 AM — quietOct 30, 5 AM — quietOct 30, 8 AM — quietOct 30, 11 AM — quietOct 30, 2 PM — quietOct 30, 5 PM — quietOct 30, 8 PM — quietOct 30, 11 PM — quietOct 31, 2 AM — quietOct 31, 5 AM — quietOct 31, 8 AM — quietOct 31, 11 AM — quietOct 31, 2 PM — quietOct 31, 5 PM — quietOct 31, 8 PM — quietOct 31, 11 PM — quietNov 1, 1 AM — quietNov 1, 4 AM — quietNov 1, 7 AM — quietNov 1, 10 AM — quietNov 1, 1 PM — quietNov 1, 4 PM — quietNov 1, 7 PM — quietNov 1, 10 PM — quietNov 2, 1 AM — quietNov 2, 4 AM — quietNov 2, 7 AM — quietNov 2, 10 AM — quietNov 2, 1 PM — quietNov 2, 4 PM — quietNov 2, 7 PM — quietNov 2, 10 PM — quietNov 3, 1 AM — quietNov 3, 4 AM — quietNov 3, 7 AM — quietNov 3, 10 AM — quietNov 3, 1 PM — quietNov 3, 4 PM — quietNov 3, 7 PM — quietNov 3, 10 PM — quietNov 4, 1 AM — quietNov 4, 4 AM — quietNov 4, 7 AM — quietNov 4, 10 AM — quietNov 4, 1 PM — quietNov 4, 4 PM — quietNov 4, 7 PM — quietNov 4, 10 PM — quietNov 5, 1 AM — quietNov 5, 4 AM — quietNov 5, 7 AM — quietNov 5, 10 AM — quietNov 5, 1 PM — quietNov 5, 4 PM — quietNov 5, 7 PM — quietNov 5, 10 PM — quietNov 6, 1 AM — quietNov 6, 4 AM — quietNov 6, 7 AM — quietNov 6, 10 AM — quietNov 6, 1 PM — quietNov 6, 4 PM — quietNov 6, 7 PM — quietNov 6, 10 PM — quietYesterday, 1 AM — quietYesterday, 4 AM — quietYesterday, 7 AM — quietYesterday, 10 AM — quietYesterday, 1 PM — quietYesterday, 4 PM — quietYesterday, 7 PM — quietYesterday, 10 PM — quietToday, 1 AM — quietToday, 4 AM — quietToday, 7 AM — quietToday, 10 AM — quietToday, 1 PM — quiet 1
Oct 30Oct 31Nov 1Nov 2Nov 3Nov 4Nov 5Nov 6yesterdaynow · 2:23 PM ET
  1. 1

    Spark Climate Solutions launches model-intercomparison project to address gap

    The Warming-Induced Greenhouse Gas Emissions Model Intercomparison Project brings together more than 20 international teams to run standardized analyses on different models, with the goal of developing better understanding of feedback effects' potential power. Researchers hope the UN will incorporate results into its next major climate assessment, due out in 2029.

    “Our climate models and the UN's reports clearly need to be updated to better represent these effects. Nations must also step up their efforts to reduce emissions to reflect this improving understanding of the dangers we face.”
    — Sam Abernethy
    1. 1 outlet Our climate models have a big, dangerous blind spot

      first by MIT Tech Review, 10d ago

    • technologyreview.com

      Climate change itself is increasingly fueling climate change. Rising concentrations of greenhouse gases are driving up global temperatures, setting off dangerous feedback loops that we have not fully accounted for in our climate models—or our emissions-reduction goals.

      technologyreview.comBluesky10d ago20▲view on Bluesky ↗
  2. background

    MIT Tech Review documents climate models' blind spot on feedback effects — James Temple's analysis reveals that none of the major UN climate models that inform global climate policy account for all feedback effects, and many don't incorporate any. This creates a critical blind spot in understanding how rapidly the planet will warm and how aggressively nations must cut emissions to stay within key temperature boundaries.

  3. background

    Environmental Research Letters study quantifies feedback-loop warming — A peer-reviewed synthesis found that additional carbon dioxide and methane released from thawing permafrost, intensifying wildfires, hotter lakes and reservoirs, and wetter, warmer wetlands alone could drive global average temperatures up 0.2°C to 0.4°C this century—on top of the 2.6°C of warming already expected through 2100.

  4. background

    Study finds feedback emissions could shorten climate thresholds by 25% — An analysis published in One Earth examined how warming-driven emissions from thawing permafrost, boreal forest fires, and tropical wetlands affect international climate goals. It concluded that just three regional sources of emissions may shorten the time before the planet consistently breaches the 1.5°C and 2°C warming thresholds by as much as 25%.