Analysts: Trump's tariff pressure on Canada is cracking, not Canada's resolve
A CFR analysis, amplified by National Post and social media, argues Washington is backing off its trade war with Canada as midterm pressure mounts on border states.
What to know
- Canada and China are the only two countries that have retaliated against Trump's tariffs, matching U.S. tariffs nearly dollar for dollar and banning U.S. alcohol sales in most provinces.
- Despite its economy being a tenth the size of the U.S. economy, Canada has not capitulated, undercutting the administration's 'iron laws' assumption that economic size equals leverage.
- Republican losses are feared in border states dependent on Canadian trade ahead of the midterms, which the analysis says is pushing Washington toward easing tariffs.
- A looming deadline exists: the U.S. plans to raise auto and auto-parts tariffs to 50 percent unless a deal is reached with Canada before January 1, 2027.
The dispute Commenters diverge over whether tariff failures stem from basic economic misunderstanding by the administration or reflect a deliberate political strategy, with no clear consensus in the limited discussion. · positions read across 6 posts and comments
Tariffs are economically misguided and historically prone to backfire through retaliation.
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“When the Smoot-Hawley act came into effect back in the 30’s, the whole world retaliated and plunged the u.s. and the world into the great depression. Maybe the rest of the world should wake up.”
MichaelWoodPhoto · Reddit ↗
The administration wrongly believes Canada should simply absorb the cost of tariffs for the privilege of U.S. market access.
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“In their minds, Canadians should be so grateful for access to US markets, that the Canadians pay for the tariffs. I think it's that simple.”
Icy-Lobster-203 · Reddit ↗
Trump bears personal agency and responsibility rather than merely being a symptom of pre-existing divisions.
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“But he has agency. He deliberately exploited those conditions, amplified the resentment and built his brand of populism around making those divisions worse.”
NeptuneAgency · Reddit ↗
“one of the worst countries in the entire world”
Donald Trump, U.S. President · Council on Foreign Relations (quoted) ↗ · Oct 27
Donald Trump U.S. President
Stephen Miller White House Deputy Chief of StaffEdward Alden CFR trade analyst, former FT Washington/Canada bureau chief
Chrystia Freeland Former Canadian trade negotiatorRobert Lighthizer Trump's first-term U.S. Trade Representative
How it unfolded 3 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlespostscomments
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Analysis spreads via social media and online forums
The CFR/National Post analysis continues circulating on Bluesky and Reddit through October 31, with users sharing the piece and debating the economics and politics of the tariff standoff.
“In their minds, Canadians should be so grateful for access to US markets, that the Canadians pay for the tariffs. I think it's that simple.”
— Icy-Lobster-203, Reddit commenter · source -
Actually, they did, and in frigid weather to boot. :). Learn your history before spouting off. The trucker convoy took over one city - Ottawa. It was reasonably peaceful, although a giant inconvenience - and citizens of Ottawa eventually had enough and would not let them past a well used bridge…
2 more of the top 3 · 4 posts in this stretch
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in fairness.... a policy by which the USA establishes substantial import tariffs, that the countries of origin somehow are paying, may well have been a means of substantially replacing income tax - it's just that is not how import tariffs ever have or really ever could work.
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In their minds, Canadians should be so grateful for access to US markets, that the Canadians pay for the tariffs. I think it's that simple.
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National Post reframes analysis as Washington backing down
National Post's 'First Reading' column picks up the CFR analysis, headlining that it is Washington, not Ottawa, that is now backing off the trade war as U.S. midterms approach.
“Washington, not Ottawa, is now backing off the trade war as U.S. midterms approach…”
— National Post -
first by National Post, 14d ago
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Yeah, I dislike how Reddit repeats “Trump is a symptom, not a cause” like it’s gospel and somehow the end of the conversation. It’s such a smarmy, know-it-all line when it’s used to wave away his responsibility. Yes, poor education, systemic racism and a flawed electoral system helped create the conditions for his rise. But he has agency. He…
1 more of the top 2 · 2 posts in this stretch
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When the Smoot-Hawley act came into effect back in the 30’s, the whole world retaliated and plunged the u.s. and the world into the great depression. Maybe the rest of the world should wake up.
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- 1 day quiet
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CFR's Alden says Canada exposes limits of Trump's tariff strategy
Edward Alden publishes a Council on Foreign Relations analysis arguing that Canada's refusal to capitulate, combined with economic strain in U.S. border states ahead of the midterms, is forcing Washington to reconsider its tariff approach even though Canada's economy is a tenth the size of the U.S. economy.
“Trump’s trade war with Canada assumed economic size would translate into bargaining power.”
— Edward Alden, Council on Foreign Relations -
first by Council on Foreign Relations, 16d ago
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background
US threatens 50% auto tariffs unless deal reached by 2027 — The United States is preparing to raise tariffs on autos and auto parts to 50 percent unless a U.S.-friendly deal with Canada is reached before January 1, 2027.
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background
US imposes 50% Section 338 tariffs on Canadian goods — Since July, many Canadian goods have faced 50 percent tariffs under Section 338, a previously unused Smoot-Hawley Act authority; Canada matched the tariffs nearly dollar for dollar and banned U.S. alcohol sales in most provinces.
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background
Trump hits Canada and Mexico with 25% IEEPA tariffs — Canada and Mexico became the first countries hit with 25 percent tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, tariffs that were later overturned by the Supreme Court.