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BusinessQuiet 11d · day 14

S&P 500 heads into seasonally strong November after shaky October close

Historical data favors a November rally for US stocks even as October ended with a sharp sell-off.

newest coverage 11d agosummary written 11d ago3 pieces299 likes & upvotes41 comments MastodonNewswiresX

What to know

  • November has historically been the S&P 500's strongest month, averaging +2.1% gains since 1980 with a 74% rate of positive returns.
  • October 2026 is set to close slightly negative after a 1.83% single-day drop on October 30, even though the index remains up 10.15% year-to-date.
  • Analysts caution that seasonality is only contextual: no data directly addresses how November performs after a down October, and daily moves driven by yields and earnings can overwhelm historical patterns.

Investing.com Financial news outlet@KobeissiLetter Financial commentary account

S&P 500 heads into seasonally strong November after shaky October close
investing.com

How it unfolded 2 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlesposts

Peak 2 pieces in 4h at Oct 30, 3 PM; 3 pieces over 14 days (1 article · 2 posts) Oct 30, 3 PM — 2 pieces · 1 article · 1 post — Mastodon 1, Newswires 1Oct 30, 7 PM — quietOct 30, 11 PM — quietOct 31, 3 AM — quietOct 31, 7 AM — quietOct 31, 11 AM — quietOct 31, 3 PM — quietOct 31, 7 PM — quietOct 31, 11 PM — quietNov 1, 2 AM — quietNov 1, 6 AM — quietNov 1, 10 AM — quietNov 1, 2 PM — quietNov 1, 6 PM — quietNov 1, 10 PM — quietNov 2, 2 AM — quietNov 2, 6 AM — quietNov 2, 10 AM — quietNov 2, 2 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — X 1Nov 2, 6 PM — quietNov 2, 10 PM — quietNov 3, 2 AM — quietNov 3, 6 AM — quietNov 3, 10 AM — quietNov 3, 2 PM — quietNov 3, 6 PM — quietNov 3, 10 PM — quietNov 4, 2 AM — quietNov 4, 6 AM — quietNov 4, 10 AM — quietNov 4, 2 PM — quietNov 4, 6 PM — quietNov 4, 10 PM — quietNov 5, 2 AM — quietNov 5, 6 AM — quietNov 5, 10 AM — quietNov 5, 2 PM — quietNov 5, 6 PM — quietNov 5, 10 PM — quietNov 6, 2 AM — quietNov 6, 6 AM — quietNov 6, 10 AM — quietNov 6, 2 PM — quietNov 6, 6 PM — quietNov 6, 10 PM — quietNov 7, 2 AM — quietNov 7, 6 AM — quietNov 7, 10 AM — quietNov 7, 2 PM — quietNov 7, 6 PM — quietNov 7, 10 PM — quietNov 8, 2 AM — quietNov 8, 6 AM — quietNov 8, 10 AM — quietNov 8, 2 PM — quietNov 8, 6 PM — quietNov 8, 10 PM — quietNov 9, 2 AM — quietNov 9, 6 AM — quietNov 9, 10 AM — quietNov 9, 2 PM — quietNov 9, 6 PM — quietNov 9, 10 PM — quietNov 10, 2 AM — quietNov 10, 6 AM — quietNov 10, 10 AM — quietNov 10, 2 PM — quietNov 10, 6 PM — quietNov 10, 10 PM — quietNov 11, 2 AM — quietNov 11, 6 AM — quietNov 11, 10 AM — quietNov 11, 2 PM — quietNov 11, 6 PM — quietNov 11, 10 PM — quietYesterday, 2 AM — quietYesterday, 6 AM — quietYesterday, 10 AM — quietYesterday, 2 PM — quietYesterday, 6 PM — quietYesterday, 10 PM — quietToday, 2 AM — quietToday, 6 AM — quietToday, 10 AM — quietToday, 2 PM — quietToday, 6 PM — quiet 12
Oct 31Nov 2Nov 4Nov 6Nov 8Nov 10now · 9:13 PM ET
  1. 2

    Kobeissi Letter highlights November's historical seasonal strength

    A widely shared post from @KobeissiLetter cites data since 1980 showing the S&P 500 averages a 2.1% gain in November with a 74% historical hit rate, framing the month as the market's strongest seasonal period.

    “Since 1980, the S&P 500 has rallied +2.1% on average in November, making it the strongest month of the year.”
    — @KobeissiLetter

    • Markets are heading into their strongest seasonal period of the year: Since 1980, the S&P 500 has rallied +2.1% on average in November, making it the strongest month of the year. Over this period, positive returns occurred 74% of the time, the best hit rate of any month.

      @KobeissiLetterX11d ago299▲view on X ↗
  2. 2 days quiet
  3. 1

    Investing.com notes November's historical strength but flags uncertainty

    An AI-assisted analysis observes that November is historically the S&P 500's strongest or near-strongest month, but says no available data specifically addresses what happens after a down October, calling seasonality 'context rather than a signal'.

    “Seasonality tilts the odds toward November, but it is context rather than a signal.”
    — Investing.com
    1. 1 outlet S&P 500 November seasonality: historical trends and this year’s context

      first by Investing.com News, 14d ago

  4. background

    S&P 500 drops 1.83% as October nears a slightly red close — The index fell to 7,579.4, about 3.4% below its 52-week high of 7,844.52, leaving the month down roughly 0.99% even as the index remains up 10.15% year-to-date.