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BusinessQuiet 10d · day 14

Wolfers: U.S. economy splits into Jekyll-and-Hyde tale of growth and pain

Strong GDP and stock markets mask weak hiring, falling savings, and plummeting consumer sentiment ahead of Tuesday's election.

newest coverage 10d agosummary written 13d ago5 pieces852 likes & upvotes32 comments BlueskyMastodon

What to know

  • Headline economic data (3.4% GDP growth, 4% unemployment, record stock markets) mask severe household distress: hiring is at decades-low levels, savings are falling, and consumer sentiment has collapsed.
  • Inflation has outpaced wage growth since April, with price increases of 70% on some items (like Halloween candy) over five years, squeezing household purchasing power.
  • Wolfers argues the psychological toll of this split—where some people thrive while others decline—creates greater anger and discontent than shared economic hardship would.
  • The economy is a central issue heading into Tuesday's election, with the contradiction between macro strength and micro weakness shaping voter sentiment.

Justin WolfersJustin Wolfers EconomistStacey Vanek Smith Economics journalist

Wolfers: U.S. economy splits into Jekyll-and-Hyde tale of growth and pain
newsletter.platypuseconomics.com

How it unfolded 1 development · click the chart to see its coverage posts

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  1. 1

    Wolfers argues divided economy may feel worse than universal struggle

    Wolfers explains that the split between strong headline numbers and weak household conditions creates psychological damage distinct from shared hardship. Those not doing well see others thriving and feel left behind and angry, amplifying discontent heading into the election.

    “Stacey's point is that this split may feel worse than everyone struggling together. Those who aren't doing great know other people are, and they feel left behind and angry.”
    — Justin Wolfers
    • justinwolfers.bsky.social

      Welcome to our Jekyll-and-Hyde economy. ⁣ ⁣ Record high markets. Record low hiring. And consumer sentiment in the cellar.

      justinwolfers.bsky.socialBluesky13d ago323▲view on Bluesky ↗
    2 more of the top 3 · 5 posts in this stretch

    • Turns out I'm a radical optimist. Six months ago, @svaneksmith and I made a bet on gas prices. I predicted $3.60 a gallon, thinking I was being the pessimist. Apparently not.

      justinwolfers@threads.netMastodon10d agoview on Mastodon ↗
    • justinwolfers.bsky.social

      GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate last quarter and most of that was IT equipment. My guess: not gaming rigs -- data centers. (with @svaneksmith)

      justinwolfers.bsky.socialBluesky11d ago282▲view on Bluesky ↗
    all of them →
  2. background

    Wolfers frames economy as divided between strong macroeconomic data and household distress — Economist Justin Wolfers, in a newsletter with Stacey Vanek Smith, describes an economy with contradictory signals: 3.4% GDP growth, 4% unemployment, and record stock markets on one side; lowest hiring in decades, falling savings, and cellar-level consumer sentiment on the other. Wolfers notes inflation has outpaced wage growth since April, with Halloween candy costs up 70% in five years.

What people are saying 2 voices from 2 sites · best of 5 · verbatim