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BusinessQuiet 12d · day 13

Bank of England poised to raise rates to 4%, may resist bets on more hikes

Economists expect the BoE to end its hold on Thursday with its first rate rise since 2023, driven by energy-cost inflation, but signal caution on further increases.

newest coverage 11d agosummary written 12d ago75 pieces231 likes & upvotes51 comments NewswiresGoogle NewsMastodonRedditYouTubeBlueskyX

What to know

  • The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee decides on interest rates on Thursday November 5, with markets and economists expecting a rise to 4% from 3.75% — the first increase since August 2023.
  • The move is driven by CPI inflation hitting 3.5% in September, an 11-month high, fuelled by energy and fuel prices linked to the ongoing Iran war and a further 22% Ofgem price cap rise due in January.
  • A Reuters poll points to a 7-2 MPC vote for the hike, with external members Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra likely to dissent in favour of holding rates.
  • Even as it hikes, the Bank may push back against market pricing of three to four further quarter-point increases in 2027, which would take rates to 4.75%-5.0%.

“The Bank of England’s updated forecasts are likely to show a mixed picture of the UK economy, as slightly stronger growth this year is overshadowed by weaker growth further out as rising inflation and higher energy costs bite, keeping further rate rises on the table.”

Suren Thiru, Chief economist, ICAEW · Evening Standard ↗ · Oct 31

Andrew Bailey Bank of England GovernorHuw Pill BoE Chief EconomistCatherine Mann External MPC memberAlan Taylor External MPC memberSwati Dhingra External MPC memberEllie Henderson Investec analyst

Bank of England poised to raise rates to 4%, may resist bets on more hikes
Evening Standard

How it unfolded 1 development · click the chart to see its coverage articlesposts

Peak 32 pieces in 3h at Nov 5, 6 AM; 75 pieces over 13 days (47 articles · 1 video · 23 posts · 4 comments) Nov 1, 3 AM — 6 pieces · 6 articles — Google News 5, Newswires 1Nov 1, 6 AM — quietNov 1, 9 AM — quietNov 1, 12 PM — quietNov 1, 3 PM — quietNov 1, 6 PM — 3 pieces · 2 articles · 1 post — Google News 1, Mastodon 1, Newswires 1Nov 1, 9 PM — 1 piece · 1 article — Google News 1Nov 2, 12 AM — quietNov 2, 3 AM — 1 piece · 1 article — Newswires 1Nov 2, 6 AM — quietNov 2, 9 AM — quietNov 2, 12 PM — quietNov 2, 3 PM — quietNov 2, 6 PM — quietNov 2, 9 PM — quietNov 3, 12 AM — quietNov 3, 3 AM — quietNov 3, 6 AM — 1 piece · 1 article — Google News 1Nov 3, 9 AM — quietNov 3, 12 PM — quietNov 3, 3 PM — quietNov 3, 6 PM — quietNov 3, 9 PM — quietNov 4, 12 AM — 1 piece · 1 article — Google News 1Nov 4, 3 AM — quietNov 4, 6 AM — quietNov 4, 9 AM — 1 piece · 1 article — Newswires 1Nov 4, 12 PM — quietNov 4, 3 PM — quietNov 4, 6 PM — 8 pieces · 6 articles · 2 posts — Newswires 6, Mastodon 2Nov 4, 9 PM — 4 pieces · 1 article · 3 posts — Mastodon 2, Reddit 1, Newswires 1Nov 5, 12 AM — 3 pieces · 2 articles · 1 post — Newswires 2, Mastodon 1Nov 5, 3 AM — 3 pieces · 2 articles · 1 post — Newswires 2, Reddit 1Nov 5, 6 AM — 32 pieces · 18 articles · 1 video · 11 posts · 2 comments — Newswires 18, Mastodon 5, Reddit 5, +3 moreNov 5, 9 AM — 6 pieces · 3 articles · 2 posts · 1 comment — Newswires 3, Reddit 2, Mastodon 1Nov 5, 12 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Nov 5, 3 PM — quietNov 5, 6 PM — quietNov 5, 9 PM — 1 piece · 1 article — Newswires 1Nov 6, 12 AM — quietNov 6, 3 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Nov 6, 6 AM — quietNov 6, 9 AM — quietNov 6, 12 PM — quietNov 6, 3 PM — quietNov 6, 6 PM — quietNov 6, 9 PM — quietNov 7, 12 AM — quietNov 7, 3 AM — quietNov 7, 6 AM — quietNov 7, 9 AM — 1 piece · 1 article — Google News 1Nov 7, 12 PM — quietNov 7, 3 PM — quietNov 7, 6 PM — quietNov 7, 9 PM — quietNov 8, 12 AM — quietNov 8, 3 AM — quietNov 8, 6 AM — quietNov 8, 9 AM — quietNov 8, 12 PM — quietNov 8, 3 PM — quietNov 8, 6 PM — quietNov 8, 9 PM — quietNov 9, 12 AM — quietNov 9, 3 AM — quietNov 9, 6 AM — quietNov 9, 9 AM — quietNov 9, 12 PM — quietNov 9, 3 PM — quietNov 9, 6 PM — quietNov 9, 9 PM — quietNov 10, 12 AM — quietNov 10, 3 AM — quietNov 10, 6 AM — quietNov 10, 9 AM — quietNov 10, 12 PM — quietNov 10, 3 PM — quietNov 10, 6 PM — quietNov 10, 9 PM — quietNov 11, 12 AM — quietNov 11, 3 AM — quietNov 11, 6 AM — quietNov 11, 9 AM — quietNov 11, 12 PM — quietNov 11, 3 PM — quietNov 11, 6 PM — quietNov 11, 9 PM — 1 piece · 1 comment — Reddit 1Yesterday, 12 AM — quietYesterday, 3 AM — quietYesterday, 6 AM — quietYesterday, 9 AM — quietYesterday, 12 PM — quietYesterday, 3 PM — quietYesterday, 6 PM — quietYesterday, 9 PM — quietToday, 12 AM — quietToday, 3 AM — quietToday, 6 AM — quietToday, 9 AM — quietToday, 12 PM — quietToday, 3 PM — quietToday, 6 PM — quiet 1
Nov 2Nov 3Nov 4Nov 5Nov 6Nov 7Nov 8Nov 9Nov 10Nov 11yesterdaynow · 9:55 PM ET
  1. background

    Reuters poll points to 7-2 vote for a hike, with caveats — A Reuters poll of economists forecast a 7-2 MPC vote to raise Bank Rate to 4%, with Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra seen as most likely dissenters, while the Bank may signal it is unlikely to deliver the three to four further hikes priced in by markets for 2027.

  2. 1

    Economists coalesce around expectation of a November hike

    Analysts including Investec's Ellie Henderson and ICAEW's Suren Thiru said a rise to 4% looked near-certain as a 'risk management' or 'precautionary' move to prevent a temporary price shock from becoming entrenched.

    “We imagine that many committee members’ patience with the recent rise in inflation has worn thin.”
    — Ellie Henderson
    1. 13 outlets Bank of England set to raise rates to 4% in push to quell inflation

      first by Financial Times, 12d ago · also City AM, Morningstar, Investing.com News, Reuters, The Times, Bangkok Post +6

      11 more headlines
    2. 10 outlets Bank of England set to rise interest rates for first time since 2023

      first by The Independent, 12d ago · also Yahoo Finance UK, Evening Standard, Bloomberg Economics, WSJ, CNBC, Investing.com News +3

      9 more headlines
    1 more claim →

    • Global Central Bank Update: -Bank of England hiked rates for the first time since 2023, 25 bps move up to 4.00%. They anticipate higher inflation in 2027 and more hikes to come.

      @charliebilelloX8d ago98▲view on X ↗
    2 more of the top 3 · 12 posts in this stretch
    • apnews.com

      The Bank of England raises interest rates for the first time in more than three years in order to tackle an inflation shock stoked by the Iran war.

      apnews.comBluesky8d ago93▲view on Bluesky ↗

    • This goes back to the previous commenter (but one)'s comment. Do you think economists haven't thought of that? The real answer by the Bank of England can't just go "nothing to do with us, carry on!" (they would love it if they could do this, they try really hard to do this) is because of second-order effects of inflation passing through the…

      hu6Bi5Tor/ukpolitics8d agoview on r/ukpolitics ↗
    all of them →
  3. background

    UK inflation jumps to 3.5%, an 11-month high — Official CPI figures showed inflation rising to 3.5% in September, overshooting the Bank's July forecast of 3.0% and pushing further away from its 2% target, driven largely by petrol, diesel and energy costs linked to the Iran war.

  4. background

    Ofgem raises household energy price cap by 3.6% — The energy price cap rose 3.6% for a typical household on October 1, with a further 22% rise forecast for January, adding to inflationary pressure ahead of the BoE's November decision.

Also covered reported alongside — the timeline has no entry for these yet

  1. 3 outlets BOE Poised for First Rate Hike in Three Years: Decision Guide

    first by Bloomberg Economics, 8d ago · also Bloomberg Markets, Philadelphia Inquirer

    4 more headlines
  2. 2 outlets Interest rate rise in midst of cost of living crisis will leave many incredulous

    first by Guardian Business, 8d ago · also Guardian

and 1 smaller piece

What people are saying 8 voices from 3 sites · best of 12 · verbatim