Australian home prices post steepest fall in 40 years, seventh straight monthly drop
Cotality data shows national values down 6.7% from their March peak as rising mortgage rates squeeze buyers ahead of an expected RBA rate hike.
What to know
- National home values fell 1.2% in October — a seventh straight monthly decline — and are now 6.7% below their March peak, per Cotality.
- Capital city values are down 8.1% since March, on pace to exceed the previous 2017–2019 record decline of 8.2%.
- The centre of the downturn is shifting from Sydney and Melbourne to Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide, driven by rate rises and reduced investor demand after tax changes.
- A fifth RBA rate rise this year is widely expected on Tuesday, and economists including Morgan Stanley forecast peak-to-trough falls of up to 15%.
The dispute Whether the price falls are broad-based across the market, as Cotality's data suggests, or concentrated unevenly in certain property types and price tiers, as some commenters' personal observations suggest. · positions read across 5 posts and comments
Falling prices are good and not a real problem unless you're forced to sell soon.
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“Did you buy a house to live in - or to make a quick buck? Unless you intended to sell in the next couple of years, why is this a problem?”
ImNoneTheWiser · reddit ↗
The downturn is uneven — apartments and inner-city units seem far less affected than houses or higher-end stock.
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“The crazy thing is, looking at units in Sydney I see very little difference in price. It is feels like the drops are happening at the mid to higher end of the market.”
Electronic-Dingo-172 · reddit ↗
Some reported statistics in the coverage (like steep drops in open-home inquiries) look exaggerated or poorly sourced.
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““Inquiries at some open homes down 300 per cent” lol at the real estate agent maths but then double lol at the abc using it as a sub heading.”
Arniethedog · reddit ↗
Gerard Burg Cotality head of researchTim Lawless Cotality research directorPeter Esho Economist, CEO of 13xReserve Bank of Australia Central bank
How it unfolded 4 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlespostscomments
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Economists forecast deeper falls as RBA weighs a fifth rate hike
Reporting tied the price falls to four interest rate rises already in 2026, with a fifth widely expected at Tuesday's RBA decision; Morgan Stanley forecasts peak-to-trough drops of up to 15%.
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first by Guardian, 12d ago · also The Guardian
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first by Bloomberg Markets, 12d ago
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Online readers split over whether falling prices are good news
Reddit discussion of the reporting split between posters welcoming cheaper housing, others reporting discounted sales and slower-moving listings in their own buildings, and some disputing which segments of the market are actually falling.
“My apartment has fallen from a peak of $858,000 down to $691,000. Good. Almost a million dollars for an older six pack in inner Brisbane is utterly cooked.”
— u/fluffy_101994 -
Did you buy a house to live in - or to make a quick buck? Unless you intended to sell in the next couple of years, why is this a problem? The value is just numbers on a piece of paper and pales compared to the security of a home (and no unexpected rent rises). If you’re struggling with repayments, that’s another story. But for the past couple of…
2 more of the top 3 · 5 posts in this stretch
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Definitely seeing the signs around my area. Unit in my building ended up dropping her sales price twice in the end, sold it for $80k less I think. There are another 4 units on my street for sale, usually by now they would have been snapped up before the sign had barely been hammered in but now they’re sitting for ages. Three of them are actually…
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The crazy thing is, looking at units in Sydney I see very little difference in price. It is feels like the drops are happening at the mid to higher end of the market. The 2 bed flats in the inner west don't seem to have moved much in price.
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Economist Peter Esho says big-city markets are 'close to bottoming'
13x chief executive Peter Esho argued Sydney and Melbourne were nearing the bottom of the cycle while mid-sized capitals were earlier in their downturn, and said he did not expect the falls to become systemic absent a borrowing freeze or a surge in unemployment.
“The downturn is just part of a normal housing cycle, driven by interest rates, which are having a negative wealth effect.”
— Peter Esho, economist and CEO of 13x -
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Cotality says downturn is broadening beyond Sydney and Melbourne
Cotality research director Tim Lawless said the correction is now broad-based, with Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide leading October's declines as combined state capital values fell 1.4% for the month.
“Virtually every suburb across Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide has recorded a drop in value over the past three months.”
— Tim Lawless, Cotality research director -
background
Cotality reports seventh straight monthly fall in home values — Cotality's October Home Value Index fell 1.2% nationally, now 6.7% below its March peak — about a $63,400 drop in the median dwelling value — with the pace of decline the fastest in 40 years, according to head of research Gerard Burg.
Also covered reported alongside — the timeline has no entry for these yet
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2 outlets House prices fall for seventh month
first by Sydney Morning Herald, 12d ago · also Investing.com News
1 more headline
- Australian home prices fall for seventh month, looming rate hike adds to pain Investing.com News · 12d ago
and 1 smaller piece
What people are saying 2 voices from 1 site · best of 5 · verbatim
- Will the RBA actually raise rates again on Tuesday, and by how much?
- How far will prices fall before the market stabilizes, and which cities will be hit hardest?
- Nov 1
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You bought a dog box, so yeah. Meanwhile my house on a quarter acre has gone up.
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“ Inquiries at some open homes down 300 per cent” lol at the real estate agent maths but then double lol at the abc using it as a sub heading.