China's Factory Activity Expands But Growth Slows as Export Orders Weaken
Official data showed contraction in October, but a private survey indicates November expansion at a slower pace amid trade pressures.
What to know
- Official October data showed China's manufacturing contracted for the second time in three months, with new export orders and production both declining despite earlier momentum.
- A private November survey indicated expansion returned but at a slower pace, suggesting export-led growth is cooling amid weaker overseas demand.
- Trading partners including the EU and Germany are escalating pressure over China's record trade surpluses, threatening further restrictions on Chinese goods.
China's National Bureau of Statistics Economic data agencyFrank-Walter Steinmeier Germany's PresidentLi Qiang China's Premier
How it unfolded 3 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlesposts
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Private survey shows factory activity expanded in November at slower pace
A private survey released on November 2 indicated China's factory activity expanded in the latest month but grew at a slower pace for the first time since July, with weaker overseas orders questioning the sustainability of export-led expansion.
“China's factory activity expanded at a slower pace for the first time since July, a private survey showed, as weaker overseas orders call into question the outlook for the country's export-led expansion.”
— Bloomberg Economics -
first by Bloomberg Economics, 12d ago
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first by Philadelphia Inquirer, 13d ago
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- 1 day quiet
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Trading partners escalate complaints over China's trade surplus
The EU highlighted an unsustainable trade deficit with China that reached $1.1 billion a day in 2025 and has taken measures including a deal to cap imports of Chinese hybrid vehicles. Germany's President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, visiting China, warned that while China's protectionism is understandable, it must not make other countries dependent on China.
“while it's 'understandable that China wants to protect its economy against external shocks and negative influences,' that must not mean making other countries increasingly dependent on China.”
— Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany's President -
background
China's official manufacturing PMI falls to 49.3, signaling contraction — The National Bureau of Statistics released October data showing the official manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 49.3, below the 50-point expansion threshold. New export orders dropped to 48.7 from 50.0 in September, and production fell to 49.8 from 51.7, both indicating contraction.
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Bloomberg analysts highlight challenges to sustaining economic recovery
Bloomberg Economics characterized the contraction as evidence of challenges facing policymakers seeking to sustain economic recovery and meet the year's growth target.