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BusinessQuiet 12d · day 12

Economists warn of sharper Australian slowdown as RBA nears fifth rate hike

CBA and NAB slash growth forecasts and lift unemployment projections as Middle East oil shock and a house price slump compound pressure on the economy.

newest coverage 11d agosummary written 10d ago5 pieces NewswiresGoogle NewsMastodon

What to know

  • RBA widely expected to hike the cash rate for a fifth time on Tuesday, taking it to its highest level since 2008.
  • Brent crude has surged from about $72 to above $110 a barrel as the Middle East conflict broadens, derailing hopes of a near-term oil price normalisation.
  • CBA and NAB have both cut 2027 GDP growth forecasts to around 1% and project unemployment rising to between 5.1% and 5.4%.
  • AMP sees house prices falling up to 15% nationally and puts the chance of recession as high as 45% if the RBA hikes as expected.

“bottoming deeper and later”

Belinda Allen, Head of Australian economics, CBA · The Guardian ↗ · Nov 1

Belinda Allen Head of Australian economics, CBAGareth Spence Head of Australian economics, NABShane Oliver Chief economist, AMPJim ChalmersJim Chalmers Australian TreasurerReserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Central bank

Economists warn of sharper Australian slowdown as RBA nears fifth rate hike
Guardian

How it unfolded 1 development · click the chart to see its coverage articlesposts

Peak 4 pieces in 3h at Nov 1, 11 PM; 5 pieces over 12 days (2 articles · 3 posts) Nov 1, 11 PM — 4 pieces · 2 articles · 2 posts — Mastodon 2, Google News 1, Newswires 1Nov 2, 2 AM — quietNov 2, 5 AM — quietNov 2, 8 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Nov 2, 11 AM — quietNov 2, 2 PM — quietNov 2, 5 PM — quietNov 2, 8 PM — quietNov 2, 11 PM — quietNov 3, 2 AM — quietNov 3, 5 AM — quietNov 3, 8 AM — quietNov 3, 11 AM — quietNov 3, 2 PM — quietNov 3, 5 PM — quietNov 3, 8 PM — quietNov 3, 11 PM — quietNov 4, 2 AM — quietNov 4, 5 AM — quietNov 4, 8 AM — quietNov 4, 11 AM — quietNov 4, 2 PM — quietNov 4, 5 PM — quietNov 4, 8 PM — quietNov 4, 11 PM — quietNov 5, 2 AM — quietNov 5, 5 AM — quietNov 5, 8 AM — quietNov 5, 11 AM — quietNov 5, 2 PM — quietNov 5, 5 PM — quietNov 5, 8 PM — quietNov 5, 11 PM — quietNov 6, 2 AM — quietNov 6, 5 AM — quietNov 6, 8 AM — quietNov 6, 11 AM — quietNov 6, 2 PM — quietNov 6, 5 PM — quietNov 6, 8 PM — quietNov 6, 11 PM — quietNov 7, 2 AM — quietNov 7, 5 AM — quietNov 7, 8 AM — quietNov 7, 11 AM — quietNov 7, 2 PM — quietNov 7, 5 PM — quietNov 7, 8 PM — quietNov 7, 11 PM — quietNov 8, 2 AM — quietNov 8, 5 AM — quietNov 8, 8 AM — quietNov 8, 11 AM — quietNov 8, 2 PM — quietNov 8, 5 PM — quietNov 8, 8 PM — quietNov 8, 11 PM — quietNov 9, 2 AM — quietNov 9, 5 AM — quietNov 9, 8 AM — quietNov 9, 11 AM — quietNov 9, 2 PM — quietNov 9, 5 PM — quietNov 9, 8 PM — quietNov 9, 11 PM — quietNov 10, 2 AM — quietNov 10, 5 AM — quietNov 10, 8 AM — quietNov 10, 11 AM — quietNov 10, 2 PM — quietNov 10, 5 PM — quietNov 10, 8 PM — quietNov 10, 11 PM — quietNov 11, 2 AM — quietNov 11, 5 AM — quietNov 11, 8 AM — quietNov 11, 11 AM — quietNov 11, 2 PM — quietNov 11, 5 PM — quietNov 11, 8 PM — quietNov 11, 11 PM — quietYesterday, 2 AM — quietYesterday, 5 AM — quietYesterday, 8 AM — quietYesterday, 11 AM — quietYesterday, 2 PM — quietYesterday, 5 PM — quietYesterday, 8 PM — quietYesterday, 11 PM — quietToday, 2 AM — quietToday, 5 AM — quietToday, 8 AM — quietToday, 11 AM — quietToday, 2 PM — quietToday, 5 PM — quietToday, 8 PM — quiet 1
Nov 2Nov 3Nov 4Nov 5Nov 6Nov 7Nov 8Nov 9Nov 10Nov 11yesterdaynow · 9:56 PM ET
  1. background

    RBA widely expected to deliver fifth rate hike — The Reserve Bank is expected to raise the cash rate for a fifth time, taking it to its highest level since 2008, intensifying pressure on mortgage holders and raising fears of a recession.

  2. background

    AMP warns of up to 15% house price falls and recession risk — AMP's Shane Oliver said national home prices could fall as much as 15% before levelling off next year, with Sydney already down 10% from its peak, and put the chance of recession as high as 45% if the RBA hikes as expected.

  3. background

    Union leaders protest outside RBA ahead of expected hike — Union leaders demonstrated outside the Reserve Bank's Sydney offices on Monday morning against the anticipated rate increase.

  4. 1

    CBA cuts GDP forecast to 1% citing oil and housing shocks

    CBA's Belinda Allen said the extended Middle East conflict, collapsing house prices and a more aggressive RBA would push real GDP growth down to just 1% by mid-2027, nearly half the bank's previous 1.8% estimate.

    “Most people thought we would see a resolution to the Middle East conflict by now and oil [prices] looking more normal. Alas, that has not been the case.”
    — Belinda Allen
    • europesays@pubeurope.com

      https://www. europesays.com/3347504/ ‘Sharper, longer slowdown’ predicted for economy as fifth interest rate hike looms | Interest rates # Economy

      europesays@pubeurope.comMastodon11d agoview on Mastodon ↗
  5. background

    NAB downgrades growth forecasts, flags higher unemployment — NAB's Gareth Spence revealed a major downgrade to the bank's forecasts, saying unemployment may need to rise further than previously thought to bring inflation under control, and that growth would stay below trend through 2027-2028.

  6. background

    Chalmers warns budget update will show pessimistic outlook — Treasurer Jim Chalmers warned the December mid-year budget update would show a more pessimistic economic outlook, foreshadowing the downgrades that followed.

Also covered reported alongside — the timeline has no entry for these yet

  1. 2 outlets ‘Sharper, longer slowdown’ predicted for economy as fifth interest rate hike looms

    first by Guardian, 11d ago · also The Guardian

What people are saying 1 voices from 1 site · best of 2 · verbatim