Argentina slides into recession a year before Milei seeks re-election
Austerity and tight monetary policy have pushed Argentina's economy into a second straight quarterly contraction, eroding Milei's approval ahead of the October 2027 vote.
What to know
- Argentina likely entered a recession in Q3 2026, with GDP contracting for a second straight quarter amid tight monetary policy and austerity; official figures are due in November.
- Household consumption, roughly two-thirds of GDP, has fallen for three straight years, driving about 32,300 business closures (6% of all firms) since Milei took office in December 2023.
- Milei's approval has slipped to 36% with disapproval at 56%, even as inflation has dropped from 200% to 30%, setting up a political test ahead of the October 2027 presidential election.
- The economy is split in two: export-driven energy, mining and agriculture are thriving, while textiles, retail, auto manufacturing and construction remain under severe pressure.
“Consumption has fallen very sharply over the past three years”
Ricardo Kuchikian, Co-owner, Eseka factory · Straits Times / Reuters ↗ · Nov 1
Javier Milei President of ArgentinaRicardo Kuchikian Co-owner of Eseka sock and underwear factoryRicardo Delgado Head of consultancy AnalyticaFundar Economic think-tank
How it unfolded 1 development · click the chart to see its coverage articlesposts
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Reuters details businesses buckling under austerity-driven slump
A Buenos Aires sock factory, Eseka, reports sales down about 40% and half its knitting machines idle, illustrating a broader squeeze on domestic-facing industries even as energy, mining and agriculture exports thrive.
“The situation is critical…”
— Ricardo Kuchikian -
background
Milei's approval rating slips to 36% as disapproval hits 56% — A Giacobbe y Asociados survey shows eroding public support for Milei as poverty climbs to near a third of the population after an eight-year low in 2025.
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background
Fundar reports 32,300 businesses closed since Milei took power — Think-tank Fundar finds about 6% of Argentina's companies shut down between December 2023 and July 2026, while consumption fell 2.7% in the first nine months of the year versus 2025.
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background
Milei takes office and launches austerity program — Javier Milei becomes president and begins radical austerity measures, lifting trade restrictions and tightening monetary policy.
Also covered reported alongside — the timeline has no entry for these yet
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3 outlets Argentina’s austerity-hit economy reels towards recession, testing Milei ahead of 2027 vote
first by Investing.com News, 11d ago · also Straits Times, Yahoo Finance