Mona Charen: Trump Effectively on the Ballot as His Approval Sinks Before Midterms
A Bulwark op-ed argues Trump's sliding approval and an enthusiasm gap between MAGA and Democratic voters make the 2026 midterms a referendum on him.
What to know
- Charen's op-ed frames Election Day 2026 as a referendum on Trump even though he is not on any ballot himself.
- Cited polling shows Trump's strong approval falling from 34% (Jan. 2025) to 18% (Economist/YouGov, April 2026) to 13% (Reuters/Ipsos, August 2026).
- A Reuters/Ipsos poll found only 30% of 2024 Trump voters were very enthusiastic about voting in the midterms versus 48% of Harris voters, with double-digit approval drops across most demographic groups.
- Economic concerns dominate: 55% of Americans told Gallup their finances were worsening, and only 20% of all voters approved of Trump's handling of inflation per an FT/Focaldata poll.
“All midterms are referenda on the sitting president, so Trump needn't have pleaded with his base. On the other hand, his base is shrinking, which may be why he is reduced to offering bribes”
Mona Charen, Bulwark columnist · The Bulwark ↗ · Nov 2
Donald Trump U.S. President
Mona Charen Columnist, The Bulwark
How it unfolded 2 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlesposts
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Political aggregators amplify the op-ed on Election Day
Political Wire and other aggregators shared and quoted the Bulwark piece on social platforms as part of Election Day political coverage, with no substantive public discussion attached.
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Diesel's six bucks a gallon and Donald is out there cheering record oil company profits, then dangling a $5,000 check you only get if his party wins. That's a bribe, in plain sight, on Election Day. Strong approval down to 13 percent. Even his own suckers can smell it now. Trump Was Right. He Is on the ...
1 more of the top 2 · 2 posts in this stretch
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"What about the old reliable MAGA talking points? 'No new wars'? That’s a problem."
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Charen argues Trump is functionally on the midterm ballot
Mona Charen's Bulwark column compiles the polling to argue Trump has lost support across nearly every demographic group, leaving Republicans with little but 'shrill and juvenile name-calling' to offer voters on Election Day.
“Trump was right about one thing: He is functionally on the ballot.”
— Mona Charen -
first by The Bulwark, 5d ago
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background
FT/Focaldata poll shows weak marks on inflation handling — A Financial Times/Focaldata poll released the day before the article found only about 42 percent of Republicans, and just 20 percent of voters overall, approved of Trump's handling of inflation.
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background
Reuters/Ipsos poll finds strong approval at 13% and enthusiasm gap — A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in August found Trump's strong approval had dropped further to 13 percent, and that only 30 percent of 2024 Trump voters were very enthusiastic about voting in the midterms compared with 48 percent of Harris voters.
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background
Economist/YouGov and Gallup polls show eroding support — Economist/YouGov polling found strong approval of Trump had fallen to 18 percent by April 2026, while a Gallup poll found 55 percent of Americans said their personal financial situation was getting worse.
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background
Economist/YouGov poll puts Trump's strong approval at 34% — An early-term Economist/YouGov poll found 34 percent of Americans strongly approved of Trump's performance, the baseline cited in Charen's analysis of his later decline.