US wildfire damage projected to triple by mid-century as 2026 season sets records
Research shows structural damage from wildfires is accelerating, driven by climate change, development, and a century of fire suppression.
What to know
- Research projects wildfire damage to homes will triple by mid-century as climate change intensifies drought and expands development into wildland areas.
- The 2026 season set multiple records: Colorado burned nearly double its historical annual average, four firefighters died, and the nation hit its highest preparedness level for 48 consecutive days.
- A century of fire suppression has allowed dry vegetation to accumulate, while climate change has nearly doubled acreage burned since 1984; fast-growing fires now destroy most structures despite being rare.
- Affordable risk-reduction strategies exist, though communities must prepare as active fire seasons become the norm.
“Researchers estimate that this drying nearly doubled the area burned in western U.S. forests between 1984 and 2015 compared with what would have burned without human-caused climate change.”
Virginia Iglesias, Earth Lab Director, University of Colorado Boulder · The Conversation US ↗ · Nov 2
Virginia Iglesias Earth Lab Director, University of Colorado Boulder
How it unfolded 2 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlesposts
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Research highlights role of fast-growing fires in structural damage
A 2024 study using satellite imagery found that 'fast fires'—those burning more than 4,000 acres in a single day—represented only 2.7% of fires analyzed but accounted for 78% of documented structures destroyed and 61% of firefighting costs.
“Fast fires, defined as those that burned more than 4,000 acres in a single day, represented just 2.7% of fires analyzed but accounted for 78% of documented structures destroyed and 61% of reported firefighting costs.”
— Virginia Iglesias, Earth Lab Director, University of Colorado Boulder -
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Wildfire damage across the U.S. is on pace to nearly triple by 2050. But protecting homes doesn't have to be expensive. Researchers explain what homeowners and communities can do now to lower their risk:
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U.S. wildfire damage is on pace to triple by mid‑century, but there are affordable ways to lower the risk #UPI
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"Access to lower-cost materials and homeowner education can help make wildfire resilience more affordable." Read the new article in The Conversation, penned by @earthlabcu.bsky.social Director Virginia Iglesias ⬇️
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Study projects US wildfire damage will triple by mid-century
Research published by University of Colorado Boulder researchers shows that the number of homes and structures damaged or destroyed by wildfires across the U.S. is on pace to triple by mid-century as temperatures rise and development expands. The study cites climate change as nearly doubling the area burned in western U.S. forests between 1984 and 2015.
“As temperatures rise and development expands, the number of homes and other structures damaged or destroyed by wildfires across the U.S. is on pace to triple by mid-century…”
— Virginia Iglesias, Earth Lab Director, University of Colorado Boulder -
3 outlets first by Phys.org, 4d ago · also Honolulu Civil Beat, The Conversation US · read ↗
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Colorado fires burn 318,000 acres by late October, nearly double annual average — Colorado fires had burned more than 318,000 acres by late October, nearly twice the annual average since 2000. The U.S. spent 48 consecutive days at Preparedness Level 5—the highest level—compared with a 10-year average of 25 days annually.
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Spokane fires damage over 800 homes, force mass evacuation — Wind-driven fires swept into neighborhoods in Spokane, Washington, damaging more than 800 homes and forcing tens of thousands of residents to evacuate.
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Knowles Fire kills four firefighters near Colorado-Utah border — Four firefighters died from injuries when the fast-moving Knowles Fire overtook them near the Colorado–Utah border in July.
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Aspen Acres Fire destroys hundreds of structures in Colorado — Colorado's Aspen Acres Fire destroyed hundreds of structures in June, marking the beginning of a destructive 2026 wildfire season fueled by historically low mountain snowpack, early snowmelt, and exceptional warmth.