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ClimateQuiet 12d · day 13

Van Tricht releases interactive map of individual glacier extinction timelines

New tool projects when each of Earth's glaciers will disappear under different warming scenarios.

newest coverage 12d agosummary written 12d ago12 pieces158 likes & upvotes64 comments MastodonHacker News

What to know

  • Interactive map projects extinction timelines for individual glaciers under four warming scenarios (+1.5°C to +4.0°C), using three global glacier models with climate data.
  • Tool shifts analytical focus from regional mass/area loss to individual glacier fate and their cultural, ecological, and hydrological significance.
  • Early users identify data accuracy concerns: some glaciers missing from database, baseline perimeters appear incorrect, and model outputs show counterintuitive patterns (longer survival at higher warming).
  • Baseline data sourced from Randolph Glacier Inventory v6.0; A glacier is classified extinct when area drops below 0.01 km² or volume falls below 1% of initial value.

The dispute Whether the data accuracy issues are fundamental flaws in the underlying dataset (RGI baseline perimeters) or merely display/search limitations of the web tool. · positions read across 9 posts and comments

some voices

The tool's interactive visualization effectively communicates climate data, making extinction timelines tangible and accessible compared to traditional climate maps.

  • “The map adds much more reality to the data as opposed to regular climate maps.”

    Aditya_0315 · Hacker News ↗
many voices

The tool has significant data quality and completeness problems: missing glaciers, incorrect baseline perimeters, and model outputs that don't match known real-world glacier status.

  • “Just checked the Glacier Blanc in the Massif des Écrins. The map's glacier vector perimeter is completely wrong : the glacier has retreated hundreds of meters already.”

    maelito · Hacker News ↗
some voices

The model shows counterintuitive or physically inconsistent results (glaciers surviving longer under higher warming scenarios).

  • “I don't understand why a glacier would survive longer in the 4°C scenario than 2.5°C but this seems to suggest so.”

    a1371 · Hacker News ↗

K. Van Tricht Researcher, tool designer

How it unfolded 3 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump postscomments

Peak 9 pieces in 3h at Sep 11, 11 AM; 12 pieces over 13 days (3 posts · 9 comments) Sep 11, 11 AM — 9 pieces · 2 posts · 7 comments — Hacker News 8, Mastodon 1Sep 11, 2 PM — quietSep 11, 5 PM — 1 piece · 1 comment — Hacker News 1Sep 11, 8 PM — 2 pieces · 1 post · 1 comment — Hacker News 1, Mastodon 1Sep 11, 11 PM — quietSep 12, 2 AM — quietSep 12, 5 AM — quietSep 12, 8 AM — quietSep 12, 11 AM — quietSep 12, 2 PM — quietSep 12, 5 PM — quietSep 12, 8 PM — quietSep 12, 11 PM — quietSep 13, 2 AM — quietSep 13, 5 AM — quietSep 13, 8 AM — quietSep 13, 11 AM — quietSep 13, 2 PM — quietSep 13, 5 PM — quietSep 13, 8 PM — quietSep 13, 11 PM — quietSep 14, 2 AM — quietSep 14, 5 AM — quietSep 14, 8 AM — quietSep 14, 11 AM — quietSep 14, 2 PM — quietSep 14, 5 PM — quietSep 14, 8 PM — quietSep 14, 11 PM — quietSep 15, 2 AM — quietSep 15, 5 AM — quietSep 15, 8 AM — quietSep 15, 11 AM — quietSep 15, 2 PM — quietSep 15, 5 PM — quietSep 15, 8 PM — quietSep 15, 11 PM — quietSep 16, 2 AM — quietSep 16, 5 AM — quietSep 16, 8 AM — quietSep 16, 11 AM — quietSep 16, 2 PM — quietSep 16, 5 PM — quietSep 16, 8 PM — quietSep 16, 11 PM — quietSep 17, 2 AM — quietSep 17, 5 AM — quietSep 17, 8 AM — quietSep 17, 11 AM — quietSep 17, 2 PM — quietSep 17, 5 PM — quietSep 17, 8 PM — quietSep 17, 11 PM — quietSep 18, 2 AM — quietSep 18, 5 AM — quietSep 18, 8 AM — quietSep 18, 11 AM — quietSep 18, 2 PM — quietSep 18, 5 PM — quietSep 18, 8 PM — quietSep 18, 11 PM — quietSep 19, 2 AM — quietSep 19, 5 AM — quietSep 19, 8 AM — quietSep 19, 11 AM — quietSep 19, 2 PM — quietSep 19, 5 PM — quietSep 19, 8 PM — quietSep 19, 11 PM — quietSep 20, 2 AM — quietSep 20, 5 AM — quietSep 20, 8 AM — quietSep 20, 11 AM — quietSep 20, 2 PM — quietSep 20, 5 PM — quietSep 20, 8 PM — quietSep 20, 11 PM — quietSep 21, 2 AM — quietSep 21, 5 AM — quietSep 21, 8 AM — quietSep 21, 11 AM — quietSep 21, 2 PM — quietSep 21, 5 PM — quietSep 21, 8 PM — quietSep 21, 11 PM — quietSep 22, 2 AM — quietSep 22, 5 AM — quietSep 22, 8 AM — quietSep 22, 11 AM — quietSep 22, 2 PM — quietSep 22, 5 PM — quietSep 22, 8 PM — quietSep 22, 11 PM — quietYesterday, 2 AM — quietYesterday, 5 AM — quietYesterday, 8 AM — quietYesterday, 11 AM — quietYesterday, 2 PM — quietYesterday, 5 PM — quietYesterday, 8 PM — quietYesterday, 11 PM — quietToday, 2 AM — quietToday, 5 AM — quiet 1–3
Sep 12Sep 13Sep 14Sep 15Sep 16Sep 17Sep 18Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22now · 8:53 AM ET
  1. 3

    Users question extinction model consistency and data completeness

    Commenters identify logical inconsistencies in the model output: one notes a glacier showing longer survival at +4.0°C warming than at +2.7°C (counterintuitive results). Others report missing glaciers from the explorer (e.g., Fox Glacier and Franz Josef Glacier in New Zealand initially not found), and question whether the baseline perimeter data used for predictions is accurate enough to support the extinction timelines shown.

    “I don't understand why a glacier would survive longer in the 4°C scenario than 2.5°C but this seems to suggest so.”
    — a1371

    • In 2004, I visited New Zealand. It was my first international trip as part of a 6 week long geology field camp. One of the coolest experiences was getting to visit the Fox Glacier and Franz Josef Glacier on the South Island.Checking this out, I don't see the Fox Glacier or Franz Josef Glacier specifically listed in the search field, but moving the…

      davelyHacker News12d agoview on Hacker News ↗
    2 more of the top 3 · 5 posts in this stretch

    • There was an episode of Northern Exposure where an entire frozen mammoth was exposed. Before the main character could report this amazing find to anyone to be preserved in a museum one of the locals dragged it to house and butchered it for steaks.

      ourmandaveHacker News12d agoview on Hacker News ↗

    • Yeah, it doesn't seem to make any of the glaciers in NZ, even when they do have names.Limitation of the data set I guess.

      EdwardDiegoHacker News12d agoview on Hacker News ↗
    all of them →
  2. 2

    Hacker News users praise tool's visualization but report accuracy issues

    Early commenters on Hacker News note the tool's effectiveness at making climate data tangible but identify specific problems: some named glaciers do not appear in search results, baseline glacier perimeters appear incorrect on some glaciers (e.g., Glacier Blanc), and at least one officially extinct glacier (Okjökull) shows survival timelines inconsistent with real-world status. One commenter notes the tool would benefit from an interactivity layer linking warming scenarios to affected glaciers.

    • Reviewed this and it is quite impressive. The map adds much more reality to the data as opposed to regular climate maps. The one feature that I think would be awesome to add would be an interactivity layer to the bottom-right panel indicating the extinction years where you can click or hover over the warming period to view the affected glaciers on…

      Aditya_0315Hacker News12d agoview on Hacker News ↗
    2 more of the top 3 · 3 posts in this stretch

    • Okjökull is considered extinct, yet according to this website it should survive until the 2070s at least? It also gives 2079 for 1.5°C vs. 2075 for 2.7°C (I know that the local dynamic is not the same as the global one, but still).

      mbtyHacker News12d agoview on Hacker News ↗

    • I don't understand why a glacier would survive longer in the 4°C scenario than 2.5°C but this seems to suggest so.

      a1371Hacker News12d agoview on Hacker News ↗
    all of them →
  3. 1

    Van Tricht publishes Global Glacier Extinction Explorer interactive map

    K. Van Tricht releases a web-based tool that displays projected extinction timelines for glaciers worldwide. The application uses three global glacier models (GloGEM, OGGM, PyGEM) combined with multiple climate scenarios corresponding to temperature increases of +1.5°C, +2.0°C, +2.7°C, and +4.0°C. A glacier is classified as extinct when its area drops below 0.01 km² or remaining volume falls below 1% of initial value.

    “Glacier changes are traditionally quantified in terms of total (regional) mass and area loss, but such metrics do not fully capture the disappearance of individual glaciers. Yet every glacier, no matter how small, can matter.”
    — Van Tricht et al. (2026)

    • Just checked the Glacier Blanc in the Massif des Écrins. The map's glacier vector perimeter is completely wrong : the glacier has retreated hundreds of meters already.I hope this is just a map thing, and not the base for these predictions :/

      maelitoHacker News12d agoview on Hacker News ↗

What people are saying 2 voices from 1 site · best of 9 · verbatim

Still unanswered
  • Why do some glaciers show longer extinction timelines at +4.0°C warming than at +2.7°C?
  • Are the baseline glacier perimeter data from RGI v6.0 current enough to serve as the foundation for these projections?
  • Why are some well-known named glaciers missing from the database or not searchable by name?