New TB vaccines could save 7.3M lives by 2050, Gavi projects—pending unpublished models
Gavi says next-generation tuberculosis vaccines arriving by 2029 could prevent millions of deaths, but the analysis behind the forecast remains preliminary and unreviewed.
What to know
- Gavi projects new TB vaccines arriving by 2029 could save 7.3M lives and generate $135B in economic benefits by 2050 for low- and middle-income countries.
- The projections rely on preliminary, unpublished modeling from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine—no peer review or public methods to examine.
- Model assumes 50% vaccine efficacy and ten-year immunity waning; different assumptions would yield different forecasts.
- Lead candidate M72 is in Phase 3 trials with 20K participants across five African and Asian countries; supply, financing, and policy risks could delay rollout even if regulatory approval arrives by decade's end.
The dispute The sharpest tension is between Gavi's headline claim of 7.3M lives saved and Rio Times' insistence that the projection rests on unvetted, preliminary modeling with no published methodology—a credibility question unresolved in the evidence.
The projections deserve attention because new TB vaccines targeting adolescents and adults address a critical gap in the century-old BCG vaccine.
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“Tuberculosis made 10.7 million people ill worldwide in 2024 and killed 1.23 million. That makes it the deadliest infectious disease on earth, ahead of malaria and HIV.”
Rio Times · Rio Times ↗
Gavi's 7.3M-life figure warrants caution because it rests on preliminary, unpublished modeling with no peer review or public methods to scrutinize.
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“The modelling behind it is preliminary and unpublished. There is no publication, no named authors and no methods annexe to examine. The correct description is modelling commissioned by an organisation that buys vaccines.”
Rio Times · Rio Times ↗
“New TB vaccines could be the next blockbuster immunisation tool, only with sufficient, predictable and affordable supply.”
Dr Sania Nishtar, Gavi CEO · Rio Times ↗ · Sep 14
Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance Global vaccine procurement and market-shaping orgDr Sania Nishtar CEO of GaviLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Modeling research institutionGSK (GlaxoSmithKline) Vaccine developerGates Medical Research Institute Trial sponsor
How it unfolded 3 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articles
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Rio Times details leading TB vaccine trial: M72 by GSK, 20K participants, five countries
Rio Times reported that the furthest-advanced candidate vaccine, M72 (an antigen developed by GSK with an adjuvant), is in a 20,000-participant trial across 54 sites in Indonesia, Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, and Zambia. The trial began in early 2024, reached full enrollment in April 2025, and will continue until 110 pulmonary TB cases accrue with up to four years of follow-up. Serum Institute of India is contracted to manufacture if it succeeds.
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first by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, 8d ago · also ThePrint, NDTV, ANI News, Rio Times, IOL, Ecofin Agency
6 more headlines
- New TB vaccines could save 7.3 mn lives by 2050, generate $135 bn in economic gains: Global vaccine body ThePrint · 8d ago
- Tuberculosis Vaccine Breakthrough Could Save Millions: Gavi Global Vaccine Alliance NDTV · 8d ago
- New 'blockbuster' tuberculosis vaccines could save seven million by 2050: Gavi ANI News · 8d ago
- New TB Vaccines Could Save Seven Million Lives, on a Model Nobody Has Published Rio Times · 8d ago
- New TB vaccines could save millions of lives by 2050 IOL · 7d ago
- New Tuberculosis Vaccines Expected From 2029 Projected to Save 7.3 Million Lives by 2050 Ecofin Agency · 7d ago
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Rio Times flags that 7.3M-life projection rests on unpublished, preliminary modeling
Rio Times reported that Gavi's projections are based on preliminary modeling by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine that has not been published, peer-reviewed, or subjected to public methodological scrutiny. The Rio Times noted the model assumes 50% vaccine efficacy regardless of prior exposure and ten-year immunity waning; changing those assumptions would alter the final figure.
“The modelling behind it is preliminary and unpublished. There is no publication, no named authors and no methods annexe to examine. The correct description is modelling commissioned by an organisation that buys vaccines.”
— Rio Times -
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Gavi cites current TB burden: 10.7M cases, 1.2M deaths in 2024
Gavi highlighted that tuberculosis remains the world's deadliest infectious disease, with 10.7 million TB cases globally in 2024 and 1.2 million deaths. Gavi-supported countries account for an estimated 77% of all TB deaths, and the one licensed vaccine—BCG, over 100 years old—only protects infants and young children, leaving adolescents and adults vulnerable.
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first by AllAfrica, 9d ago · also Ahram Online, Organiser
2 more headlines
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background
Gavi projects 7.3M lives saved by new TB vaccines by 2050 — Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, released an Early Market Shaping Roadmap predicting that next-generation TB vaccines—expected to become available from 2029—could save 7.3 million lives between 2030 and 2050, generate up to $135 billion in economic benefits for low- and middle-income countries, and help combat antimicrobial resistance.