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AIQuiet 13d · day 13

Tech investors bet on AI despite fundamental economic doubts

Silicon Valley backers face skepticism over whether trillion-dollar AI bets can ever turn profitable.

newest coverage 12d agosummary written 12d ago3 pieces170 likes & upvotes4 comments Mastodon

What to know

  • Tech investors have bet heavily on scaling large language models into AGI, but critics argue this is economically impossible.
  • LLMs have inherent mathematical limitations that produce hallucinations and deliver only marginal improvements despite exponential cost increases.
  • Some analysts contend the investments cannot be recouped under any scenario, even if AGI is achieved, making profitability fundamentally impossible.

The dispute None apparent in the evidence; the conversation is largely aligned in skepticism about AI investment viability. · positions read across 3 posts and comments

most voices

AI scaling investments are economically doomed due to mathematical limitations of LLMs and unsustainable resource requirements.

  • “LLMs are mathematically guaranteed to produce plausible sounding errors (too often called "hallucinations"). Sucking up increasing amounts of water and energy to train on more stolen information only results in marginal improvements.”

    FantasticalEconomics · Mastodon ↗

FantasticalEconomics AI economics criticbrucelawson@vivaldi.net Technology observerisotopp@infosec.exchange Technologist

How it unfolded 3 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump posts

Peak 2 pieces in 3h at Sep 15, 1 AM; 3 pieces over 13 days (3 posts) Sep 14, 4 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Sep 14, 7 PM — quietSep 14, 10 PM — quietSep 15, 1 AM — 2 pieces · 2 posts — Mastodon 2Sep 15, 4 AM — quietSep 15, 7 AM — quietSep 15, 10 AM — quietSep 15, 1 PM — quietSep 15, 4 PM — quietSep 15, 7 PM — quietSep 15, 10 PM — quietSep 16, 1 AM — quietSep 16, 4 AM — quietSep 16, 7 AM — quietSep 16, 10 AM — quietSep 16, 1 PM — quietSep 16, 4 PM — quietSep 16, 7 PM — quietSep 16, 10 PM — quietSep 17, 1 AM — quietSep 17, 4 AM — quietSep 17, 7 AM — quietSep 17, 10 AM — quietSep 17, 1 PM — quietSep 17, 4 PM — quietSep 17, 7 PM — quietSep 17, 10 PM — quietSep 18, 1 AM — quietSep 18, 4 AM — quietSep 18, 7 AM — quietSep 18, 10 AM — quietSep 18, 1 PM — quietSep 18, 4 PM — quietSep 18, 7 PM — quietSep 18, 10 PM — quietSep 19, 1 AM — quietSep 19, 4 AM — quietSep 19, 7 AM — quietSep 19, 10 AM — quietSep 19, 1 PM — quietSep 19, 4 PM — quietSep 19, 7 PM — quietSep 19, 10 PM — quietSep 20, 1 AM — quietSep 20, 4 AM — quietSep 20, 7 AM — quietSep 20, 10 AM — quietSep 20, 1 PM — quietSep 20, 4 PM — quietSep 20, 7 PM — quietSep 20, 10 PM — quietSep 21, 1 AM — quietSep 21, 4 AM — quietSep 21, 7 AM — quietSep 21, 10 AM — quietSep 21, 1 PM — quietSep 21, 4 PM — quietSep 21, 7 PM — quietSep 21, 10 PM — quietSep 22, 1 AM — quietSep 22, 4 AM — quietSep 22, 7 AM — quietSep 22, 10 AM — quietSep 22, 1 PM — quietSep 22, 4 PM — quietSep 22, 7 PM — quietSep 22, 10 PM — quietSep 23, 1 AM — quietSep 23, 4 AM — quietSep 23, 7 AM — quietSep 23, 10 AM — quietSep 23, 1 PM — quietSep 23, 4 PM — quietSep 23, 7 PM — quietSep 23, 10 PM — quietSep 24, 1 AM — quietSep 24, 4 AM — quietSep 24, 7 AM — quietSep 24, 10 AM — quietSep 24, 1 PM — quietSep 24, 4 PM — quietSep 24, 7 PM — quietSep 24, 10 PM — quietSep 25, 1 AM — quietSep 25, 4 AM — quietSep 25, 7 AM — quietSep 25, 10 AM — quietSep 25, 1 PM — quietSep 25, 4 PM — quietSep 25, 7 PM — quietSep 25, 10 PM — quietSep 26, 1 AM — quietSep 26, 4 AM — quietSep 26, 7 AM — quietSep 26, 10 AM — quietSep 26, 1 PM — quietSep 26, 4 PM — quietSep 26, 7 PM — quietSep 26, 10 PM — quietYesterday, 1 AM — quietYesterday, 4 AM — quietYesterday, 7 AM — quietYesterday, 10 AM — quietYesterday, 1 PM — quietYesterday, 4 PM — quietYesterday, 7 PM — quietYesterday, 10 PM — quiet 1–3
Sep 15Sep 16Sep 17Sep 18Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22Sep 23Sep 24Sep 25Sep 26now · 1:12 AM ET
  1. 3

    German technologist argues AI unprofitable under any scenario

    isotopp@infosec.exchange, writing in German, argues that while LLMs are useful and produce correct results, it is completely impossible to recoup the investments made, and that profitability is already mathematically impossible in every conceivable scenario—even if AGI were achieved.

    “It is already now in every conceivable scenario impossible to become profitable.”
    — isotopp@infosec.exchange · source
    • isotopp@infosec.exchange

      RE: https:// mas.to/@FantasticalEconomics/1 17271376665334027 Was total schwierig zu erklären ist, ist die Tatsache, dass LLM nützlich sind und korrekt genügende Ergebnisse liefern können und es trotzdem komplett unmöglich ist, die getätigten Investitionen wieder rein zu holen. Und das wäre sogar der Fall, wenn es AGI würde. Es ist bereits jetzt…

      isotopp@infosec.exchangeMastodon12d ago1▲view on Mastodon ↗
  2. 2

    Observer calls criticism 'most plausible explanation' for AI panic

    brucelawson@vivaldi.net endorses the economic skepticism as the most credible account of why tech leaders are suddenly focused on AI safety.

    “The most plausible explanation for the sudden Broligarch panic about "A.I." I've seen.”
    — brucelawson@vivaldi.net · source

    • RE: https:// mas.to/@FantasticalEconomics/1 17271376665334027 The most plausible explanation for the sudden Broligarch panic about "A.I." I've seen.

      brucelawson@vivaldi.netMastodon12d ago10▲view on Mastodon ↗
  3. 1

    Critic argues AI scaling bet is mathematically doomed

    FantasticalEconomics posts that Silicon Valley and Wall Street backers have wagered the global economy on scaling LLMs into AGI, but argues this is a losing bet because large language models are mathematically guaranteed to produce plausible-sounding errors, and increased water and energy consumption yields only marginal improvements.

    “A handful of bros in Silicon Valley and Wall Street have wagered much of the global economy on being able to hyperscale stochastic parrots into AGI super beings.”
    — FantasticalEconomics
    • FantasticalEconomics

      A handful of bros in Silicon Valley and Wall Street have wagered much of the global economy on being able to hyperscale stochastic parrots into AGI super beings. Many in the know have long known that is a losing bet as LLMs are mathematically guaranteed to produce plausible sounding errors (too often called "hallucinations"). Sucking up increasing…

      FantasticalEconomicsMastodon13d ago159▲view on Mastodon ↗

What people are saying 0 voices from 0 sites · best of 3 · verbatim