Study finds Australia’s pre-colonial Indigenous population was 2.2 million, not 250,000
New modelling shows colonisation killed roughly 2.06 million First Nations people, leaving just 7% of the original population by the 1860s.
What to know
- New peer-reviewed modelling puts Australia's pre-1788 Indigenous population at about 2.2 million, up to seven times earlier estimates.
- Researchers estimate 2.06 million people died from disease, massacres and dispossession by 1861, leaving only about 7% of the original population.
- Researchers say existing massacre records substantially understate frontier violence, and frame the findings as important for truth-telling and reconciliation.
- At current growth rates it would take roughly another 21 years for Australia's Indigenous population to return to its pre-colonial size.
“Probably most of the frontier violence was done under the cover of night, so to speak”
Corey Bradshaw, Flinders University professor, study co-author · ABC Australia ↗ · Sep 14
Corey Bradshaw Study co-author, Flinders University professorLarissa Behrendt CIEHF advisory committee chair, UTS professorAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures (CIEHF) Research body behind the study
How it unfolded 3 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlesposts
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Social media reacts sharply to the findings online
The study's findings circulate on Reddit and Mastodon within hours of publication, with at least one Mastodon user framing the colonisation death toll in pointedly hostile terms toward white settlers.
“White people = most dangerous invasive alien species in Australia.”
— wood5y@mastodonapp.uk -
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More than 2 million Indigenous people likely lived in Australia in 1788, over seven times the figure used for a century, and numbers fell by over 90 percent by 1861. # Archaeology # IndigenousAustralia # PopulationGenetics https://www. anthropology.net/p/australia-w as-home-to-22-million
2 more of the top 3 · 19 posts in this stretch
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There are more people alive today with aboriginal heritage than ever before. No accurate census was ever taken by them originally, believe it or not. There is no consensus or hard figure on the amount of Aboriginals in Australia, nor how long they have been in the country, or when they diverted from their Dravidian Indian and Papa New Guinean…
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A new study by # FlindersUniversity estimates a # population of ~2.2 million # IndigenousAustralians prior to 1788. Some 93% of the pre- # colonial population was wiped out by 1861—around two million people—and at current growth rates, won’t return to pre-settlement levels until 2047. https:// phys.org/news/2026-09-indigeno…
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Study puts colonisation death toll at 2.06 million, 93% population loss
The researchers estimate 2.06 million First Nations people died from disease, massacres, displacement and other colonial disturbances between 1788 and 1861, leaving only about 7% of the pre-colonial population by roughly 1861; ABC reports it would take another 21 years for the Indigenous population to return to pre-colonial numbers at current growth trends.
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first by Mastodon, 5d ago · also Hindustan Times, The Conversation
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2 outlets Impact of colonisation on First Nations people far greater than previous estimates, research finds
first by ABC Australia, 9d ago · also ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation
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Behrendt calls the findings a 'demographic catastrophe'
CIEHF advisory committee chair and UTS professor Larissa Behrendt says the scale of death and dispossession revealed by the study should reshape understanding of Australian history.
“We are not talking about a marginal consequence of colonisation but a demographic catastrophe at the heart of the Australian story…”
— Larissa Behrendt -
background
Bradshaw says massacre databases underestimate deaths by an 'order of magnitude' — Co-author Corey Bradshaw, a Flinders University global ecology professor, says frontier violence was systematically undocumented and that his own earlier research found an 1789 smallpox outbreak alone killed up to 220,000 Aboriginal people.
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background
Researchers publish revised pre-colonial population estimate of 2.2 million — A study by the CIEHF, published in Nature Human Behaviour, uses computer modelling, ethnographic, archaeological and genetic data to put Australia's pre-1788 Indigenous population at a median of 2.22 million, far above prior estimates of 250,000 to 1 million.
Also covered reported alongside — the timeline has no entry for these yet
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first by Mastodon, 7d ago · also Anadolu Agency, The Independent
1 more headline
- Australia's pre-colonial Indigenous population may have been far larger than estimated: Study Anadolu Agency · 7d ago
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first by Nature, 9d ago · also Guardian
1 more headline
and 3 smaller pieces
What people are saying 16 voices from 2 sites · best of 19 · verbatim
- Sep 19
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It could happen. I assume white Australians would accept losing their rights to their land, having their kids taken away and being forced to speak Chinese. They’d get over it in a timely manner. I mean, China’s the superior culture. They invented writing first.
- Sep 18
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Australia may have had a much larger Indigenous population before the arrival of Europeans than previously thought, a new study has found. The research, based on computer modelling, suggests that about ⭐️93 per cent of the pre-European population was removed in under 80 years following the arrival of the First Fleet in 1788. And this population…
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It been 100s of years, and they are still suffering is the problem. Billions spent annual to mitigate the issues. Billions. The only colonist in history that actively try and help those they took over
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Study suggests a very much larger pre-invasion Australian population than previously believed. Catastrophic population decline with colonisation. # Australia # firstnations # demography https://www. independent.co.uk/news/science /australia-indigenous-population-colonisation-b3051036.html
- Sep 17
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New research suggests that the Indigenous population in Australia was >2 million before the invasion, and that 90% of the population died in the following 70 years. Sobering stuff. https:// theconversation.com/more-than- 2-million-indigenous-people-lived-in-australia-in-1788-new-research-291278
- Sep 16
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So your argument is that indigenous Australians are doing poorly because we still have Charlie as our head of state? If we switched from a constitutional monarchy to a republic, this problem will be solved?
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There's an enormous amount of research on why Indigenous Australians – and all indigenous populations on colonised land – are doing poorly. Very easy to google. Singapore is not one of those places. That's what I was saying.
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It really did hit rock bottom. But since then they have changed the chair and MD and I hope it means improving back to the old standards at least
- Sep 15
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Looks like they silently removed this from the article. ABC really needs to make sure they put a correction note when they make corrections.
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Indigenous oral histories, in my experience, tend to be context-dependent, where the story, and the reason for telling the story, change depending on the situation. The same should go for listening. Every single person has wisdom, but it is up to the listener to discern what is important and the take-away from that conversation. The information…
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you seem to be describing characters who came over as a desperate means of survival, and then who tried to stay out of the aboriginals way, unknowingly transmitting diseases as an unfortunate byproduct of their otherwise peaceful existence. While I'm sure there were some that fit that category, prisoners etc, those are clearly not the only types…
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Identification for procreation or avoidance? We don’t seem to get any less of them.
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This is the basis of the History Wars which are ongoing arguments among serious Australian historians. The answer is genuinely not clear. I would avoid using the word genocide as it is the strongest possible description of violence in this case.
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You really think people up to about 1860 had the means to actually do that? They didn’t have the weaponry, the spread or even the impetus to do that.
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https://www. europesays.com/us/1064668/ Impact of colonisation on First Nations people far greater than previous estimates, research finds # AboriginalHistory # Australia # colonisation # FirstNations # history # Indigenous # News
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"Australia was colonised on the basis of terra nullius, that it belonged to no one. That concept was overthrown with the high court’s Mabo decision, when it was recognised that First Nations people had been here for tens of thousands of years. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people were not properly counted in the census until 1971, after…