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ScienceQuiet 5d · day 9

Study finds Australia’s pre-colonial Indigenous population was 2.2 million, not 250,000

New modelling shows colonisation killed roughly 2.06 million First Nations people, leaving just 7% of the original population by the 1860s.

What to know

  • New peer-reviewed modelling puts Australia's pre-1788 Indigenous population at about 2.2 million, up to seven times earlier estimates.
  • Researchers estimate 2.06 million people died from disease, massacres and dispossession by 1861, leaving only about 7% of the original population.
  • Researchers say existing massacre records substantially understate frontier violence, and frame the findings as important for truth-telling and reconciliation.
  • At current growth rates it would take roughly another 21 years for Australia's Indigenous population to return to its pre-colonial size.

“Probably most of the frontier violence was done under the cover of night, so to speak”

Corey Bradshaw, Flinders University professor, study co-author · ABC Australia ↗ · Sep 14

Corey Bradshaw Study co-author, Flinders University professorLarissa Behrendt CIEHF advisory committee chair, UTS professorAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures (CIEHF) Research body behind the study

Study finds Australia’s pre-colonial Indigenous population was 2.2 million, not 250,000
theguardian.com

How it unfolded 3 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlesposts

Peak 17 pieces in two hours at Sep 15, 4 AM; 46 pieces over 9 days (16 articles · 18 posts · 12 comments) Sep 15, 4 AM — 17 pieces · 11 articles · 6 posts — Google News 6, Mastodon 6, Newswires 4, +1 moreSep 15, 6 AM — 4 pieces · 1 post · 3 comments — Reddit 4Sep 15, 8 AM — 4 pieces · 3 posts · 1 comment — Mastodon 3, Reddit 1Sep 15, 10 AM — quietSep 15, 12 PM — 1 piece · 1 comment — Reddit 1Sep 15, 2 PM — quietSep 15, 4 PM — quietSep 15, 6 PM — 2 pieces · 1 post · 1 comment — Mastodon 1, Reddit 1Sep 15, 8 PM — quietSep 15, 10 PM — quietSep 16, 12 AM — 4 pieces · 1 article · 3 comments — Reddit 3, Newswires 1Sep 16, 2 AM — quietSep 16, 4 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Sep 16, 6 AM — 2 pieces · 1 article · 1 comment — Mastodon 1, Reddit 1Sep 16, 8 AM — 1 piece · 1 article — Newswires 1Sep 16, 10 AM — quietSep 16, 12 PM — quietSep 16, 2 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Sep 16, 4 PM — quietSep 16, 6 PM — quietSep 16, 8 PM — quietSep 16, 10 PM — quietSep 17, 12 AM — quietSep 17, 2 AM — quietSep 17, 4 AM — quietSep 17, 6 AM — quietSep 17, 8 AM — quietSep 17, 10 AM — quietSep 17, 12 PM — quietSep 17, 2 PM — quietSep 17, 4 PM — quietSep 17, 6 PM — quietSep 17, 8 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Sep 17, 10 PM — quietSep 18, 12 AM — quietSep 18, 2 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Sep 18, 4 AM — 1 piece · 1 comment — Reddit 1Sep 18, 6 AM — quietSep 18, 8 AM — quietSep 18, 10 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Sep 18, 12 PM — 1 piece · 1 article — Mastodon 1Sep 18, 2 PM — quietSep 18, 4 PM — quietSep 18, 6 PM — quietSep 18, 8 PM — 2 pieces · 2 posts — Mastodon 1, Bluesky 1Sep 18, 10 PM — quietSep 19, 12 AM — quietSep 19, 2 AM — quietSep 19, 4 AM — 1 piece · 1 comment — Reddit 1Sep 19, 6 AM — quietSep 19, 8 AM — quietSep 19, 10 AM — quietSep 19, 12 PM — quietSep 19, 2 PM — quietSep 19, 4 PM — 1 piece · 1 article — Mastodon 1Sep 19, 6 PM — quietSep 19, 8 PM — quietSep 19, 10 PM — quietSep 20, 12 AM — quietSep 20, 2 AM — quietSep 20, 4 AM — quietSep 20, 6 AM — quietSep 20, 8 AM — quietSep 20, 10 AM — quietSep 20, 12 PM — quietSep 20, 2 PM — quietSep 20, 4 PM — quietSep 20, 6 PM — quietSep 20, 8 PM — quietSep 20, 10 PM — quietSep 21, 12 AM — quietSep 21, 2 AM — quietSep 21, 4 AM — quietSep 21, 6 AM — quietSep 21, 8 AM — quietSep 21, 10 AM — quietSep 21, 12 PM — quietSep 21, 2 PM — quietSep 21, 4 PM — quietSep 21, 6 PM — quietSep 21, 8 PM — quietSep 21, 10 PM — quietSep 22, 12 AM — quietSep 22, 2 AM — quietSep 22, 4 AM — quietSep 22, 6 AM — quietSep 22, 8 AM — quietSep 22, 10 AM — quietSep 22, 12 PM — quietSep 22, 2 PM — quietSep 22, 4 PM — quietSep 22, 6 PM — quietSep 22, 8 PM — quietSep 22, 10 PM — quietYesterday, 12 AM — quietYesterday, 2 AM — quietYesterday, 4 AM — quietYesterday, 6 AM — quietYesterday, 8 AM — quietYesterday, 10 AM — quietYesterday, 12 PM — quietYesterday, 2 PM — quietYesterday, 4 PM — quietYesterday, 6 PM — quietYesterday, 8 PM — quietYesterday, 10 PM — quietToday, 12 AM — quietToday, 2 AM — quietToday, 4 AM — quiet 1–3
Sep 16Sep 17Sep 18Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22yesterdaynow · 6:47 AM ET
  1. 3

    Social media reacts sharply to the findings online

    The study's findings circulate on Reddit and Mastodon within hours of publication, with at least one Mastodon user framing the colonisation death toll in pointedly hostile terms toward white settlers.

    “White people = most dangerous invasive alien species in Australia.”
    — wood5y@mastodonapp.uk
    • anthropology@sciences.social

      More than 2 million Indigenous people likely lived in Australia in 1788, over seven times the figure used for a century, and numbers fell by over 90 percent by 1861. # Archaeology # IndigenousAustralia # PopulationGenetics https://www. anthropology.net/p/australia-w as-home-to-22-million

      anthropology@sciences.socialMastodon7d ago12▲view on Mastodon ↗
    2 more of the top 3 · 19 posts in this stretch
    • There are more people alive today with aboriginal heritage than ever before. No accurate census was ever taken by them originally, believe it or not. There is no consensus or hard figure on the amount of Aboriginals in Australia, nor how long they have been in the country, or when they diverted from their Dravidian Indian and Papa New Guinean…

      ZANY_ALL_CAPS_NAMEr/science8d agoview on r/science ↗
    • davej@dice.camp

      A new study by # FlindersUniversity estimates a # population of ~2.2 million # IndigenousAustralians prior to 1788. Some 93% of the pre- # colonial population was wiped out by 1861—around two million people—and at current growth rates, won’t return to pre-settlement levels until 2047. https:// phys.org/news/2026-09-indigeno…

      davej@dice.campMastodon8d ago9▲view on Mastodon ↗
    all of them →
  2. 2

    Study puts colonisation death toll at 2.06 million, 93% population loss

    The researchers estimate 2.06 million First Nations people died from disease, massacres, displacement and other colonial disturbances between 1788 and 1861, leaving only about 7% of the pre-colonial population by roughly 1861; ABC reports it would take another 21 years for the Indigenous population to return to pre-colonial numbers at current growth trends.

    1. first by Mastodon, 5d ago · also Hindustan Times, The Conversation

    2. first by ABC Australia, 9d ago · also ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation

  3. 1

    Behrendt calls the findings a 'demographic catastrophe'

    CIEHF advisory committee chair and UTS professor Larissa Behrendt says the scale of death and dispossession revealed by the study should reshape understanding of Australian history.

    “We are not talking about a marginal consequence of colonisation but a demographic catastrophe at the heart of the Australian story…”
    — Larissa Behrendt
  4. background

    Bradshaw says massacre databases underestimate deaths by an 'order of magnitude' — Co-author Corey Bradshaw, a Flinders University global ecology professor, says frontier violence was systematically undocumented and that his own earlier research found an 1789 smallpox outbreak alone killed up to 220,000 Aboriginal people.

  5. background

    Researchers publish revised pre-colonial population estimate of 2.2 million — A study by the CIEHF, published in Nature Human Behaviour, uses computer modelling, ethnographic, archaeological and genetic data to put Australia's pre-1788 Indigenous population at a median of 2.22 million, far above prior estimates of 250,000 to 1 million.

Also covered reported alongside — the timeline has no entry for these yet

  1. first by Mastodon, 7d ago · also Anadolu Agency, The Independent

    1 more headline
  2. first by Nature, 9d ago · also Guardian

    1 more headline

and 3 smaller pieces

What people are saying 16 voices from 2 sites · best of 19 · verbatim