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ClimateQuiet · 31h

Stanford study: Post-Paris emissions intensified Europe's recent heat waves by 0.3°C

A new diffusion model shows greenhouse gases released since 2015 made the continent's hottest annual weeks measurably worse.

newest coverage 1d agosummary written 1d ago6 pieces1 likes & upvotes MastodonNewswiresGoogle News

What to know

  • A Stanford study published Sep. 22 in Geophysical Research Letters quantifies how emissions since the 2015 Paris Agreement have intensified European heat waves—increasing 2025 wave intensity by approximately 0.3°C.
  • Researchers used a machine-learning diffusion model trained on climate simulations to isolate the warming effect of post-Paris emissions by comparing observed heat waves under current versus 2015 emission levels.
  • The findings carry urgent stakes: Europe is warming at twice the global average rate; summer 2026 heat waves surpassed 46°C in Spain and Portugal and contributed to at least 35,000 excess deaths.
  • The world is on track to exceed the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target, with optimistic estimates peaking at 1.8°C under current policies—meaning fractional degree increases produce disproportionate harm.

“This is a purpose built machine learning model that we trained on large amounts of climate model data…to make predictions about how individual heat waves might have unfolded differently if those same weather patterns had occurred under different levels of human emissions”

Jared Trok, Lead author, Stanford Earth system science PhD student · Time ↗ · Sep 21

Jared Trok Lead author, Stanford climate researcherStanford Doerr School of Sustainability Research institution

Stanford study: Post-Paris emissions intensified Europe's recent heat waves by 0.3°C
Time

How it unfolded 2 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlesposts

Peak 2 pieces in one hour at Sep 22, 8 AM; 6 pieces over 40 hours (3 articles · 3 posts) Sep 22, 8 AM — 2 pieces · 1 article · 1 post — Mastodon 1, Newswires 1Sep 22, 9 AM — quietSep 22, 10 AM — quietSep 22, 11 AM — 1 piece · 1 article — Newswires 1Sep 22, 12 PM — quietSep 22, 1 PM — quietSep 22, 2 PM — quietSep 22, 3 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Sep 22, 4 PM — 2 pieces · 1 article · 1 post — Google News 1, Mastodon 1Sep 22, 5 PM — quietSep 22, 6 PM — quietSep 22, 7 PM — quietSep 22, 8 PM — quietSep 22, 9 PM — quietSep 22, 10 PM — quietSep 22, 11 PM — quietYesterday, 12 AM — quietYesterday, 1 AM — quietYesterday, 2 AM — quietYesterday, 3 AM — quietYesterday, 4 AM — quietYesterday, 5 AM — quietYesterday, 6 AM — quietYesterday, 7 AM — quietYesterday, 8 AM — quietYesterday, 9 AM — quietYesterday, 10 AM — quietYesterday, 11 AM — quietYesterday, 12 PM — quietYesterday, 1 PM — quietYesterday, 2 PM — quietYesterday, 3 PM — quietYesterday, 4 PM — quietYesterday, 5 PM — quietYesterday, 6 PM — quietYesterday, 7 PM — quietYesterday, 8 PM — quietYesterday, 9 PM — quietYesterday, 10 PM — quietYesterday, 11 PM — quiet ◂ 1 earlier2
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    Study quantifies warming: decade of emissions increased 2025 heat waves by 0.3°C

    Using a generative AI diffusion model trained on 10 global climate models, researchers compared observed weather patterns from Europe's most intense annual heat waves (2016–2025) under current emissions and hypothetical 2015 emission levels, finding that recent emissions raised intensity by roughly one-third of a degree Celsius.

    “That third of a degree might seem very small, maybe imperceptible to us walking around, but there's a large body of scientific literature that suggests that even small increments of temperature on a hot day can have these disproportionate impacts on the damages caused by those heat waves…”
    — Jared Trok
    1. 1 outlet Emissions from the past decade have made Europe's recent heat waves worse

      first by phys.org, 1d ago

    2. 1 outlet The Past Decade’s Emissions Are Already Driving Worse Heat Waves in Europe

      first by Time, 1d ago

    • joachim@boitam.eu

      Vous vous souvenez l’accord de Paris ? Il y a bientôt 11 ans, ça ne nous rajeunit pas ! Presque 1/5 des émissions de CO₂ dues à nos carburants fossiles ont eu lieu depuis l’accord de Paris. https:// phys.org/news/2026-09-emission s-decade-europe-worse.html#:~:text=Almost%20one%2Dfifth,gas%20and%20coal

      joachim@boitam.euMastodon1d agoview on Mastodon ↗
  2. 1

    Stanford researchers publish study linking post-Paris emissions to intensified European heat waves

    A study in Geophysical Research Letters by Stanford Earth system scientists shows that greenhouse gases emitted since the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement have substantially increased the intensity of Europe's recent individual heat waves, with effects measurable in every year's hottest week since at least 2021.

    “We found that the emissions released since the signing of this Paris Agreement in 2015 have substantially and significantly increased the intensity of Europe's recent individual heat waves…”
    — Jared Trok