Apollo economist Slok: AI has delivered 'zero financial payoff' outside tech
A viral Apollo research note finds revenue and productivity gains from AI confined almost entirely to the Magnificent Seven, stoking investor anxiety ahead of Big Tech earnings.
Part of a larger narrative
The AI Chip Bubble
- OpenAI cuts funding round target to $20B as valuation drops to $1.25T
- S&P cuts Meta outlook to negative over $252B AI capex and cash flow deficits
- OpenAI launches election 'war room' ahead of US midterms
- OpenAI Reportedly Plans to Buy Google's TPUs, Diversifying From Nvidia
- Oracle moves to raise $20 billion in stock and bonds to fund AI buildout
What to know
- Apollo's Torsten Slok finds revenue per worker and profit margins rising only for the 'Mag 7,' flat for the other 493 S&P companies, with no evidence of AI-driven productivity growth
- Mainstream corporate America is reportedly starting to treat AI 'token spending' as a cost center rather than a growth driver, per the report
- The finding lands days before Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft earnings, amid fears a repeat of the market's harsh reaction to Meta's capex plans could hit the sector again
- Online reaction splits between those citing it as proof AI hype is overblown and those arguing payoff is simply too early or undermined by poor corporate implementation, not the technology itself
The dispute Whether the absence of measurable AI payoff outside tech is evidence the technology itself is overhyped, or simply reflects poor corporate execution and insufficient time for returns to materialize. · positions read across 112 posts and comments
The data confirms the promised AI productivity boom outside tech is not happening and spending is wasted.
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“Remember that AI productivity boom they were all promising?? Well, according to Apollo, there are NO signs of this through the broader economy. The only sector that benefits is tech.”
@puckrin · X ↗
The lack of payoff reflects bad management and implementation inside companies, not a failure of AI itself.
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“I have worked in multiple companies where the internally developed software was central to the business success, yet it was handled in an extremely bad way... The management did constantly override technical decisions and/or switched the…”
Fanmade · Hacker News ↗
It's too early to expect a measurable financial payoff from AI adoption.
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“I don't see why a payoff would have appeared yet. Many (but certainly not all) software companies have increased their output without hiring more people. But having software with more features doesn't necessarily drive immediate…”
ttul · Hacker News ↗
Torsten Slok Apollo Chief EconomistApollo Asset management firmAlphabet, Amazon, Microsoft Big Tech companies reporting earningsMeta Big Tech company, prior earnings reference point
How it unfolded 6 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlesvideospostscomments
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Bloomberg ties Apollo findings to looming Big Tech earnings risk
Bloomberg reporting connected the Apollo analysis to this week's earnings from Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft, noting investors are growing impatient with AI capex and that markets may punish any disappointment as harshly as they did Meta's spending plans.
“Private Equity firm Apollo sees no point in "AI" in all but big tech companies.”
— redwolf.ws, Bluesky user · source -
first by Channel News Asia, 12d ago
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first by Bloomberg, 13d ago
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"Anthropic has focused on businesses as its primary paying customers, unlike OpenAI, which has courted everyday consumers for ChatGPT." "AI delivers ‘zero financial payoff’ to most companies, Apollo economist says"
2 more of the top 3 · 25 posts in this stretch
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Ok, now you're bringing data so I (also a rando commenter) will take you seriously. I think you've used a bot for it but as long as it's correct that's cool. I already agreed with you that the tech giants will survive with or without AI. And I don't care about their survival. I've never thought they'd die but I wouldn't care if they did, because…
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Not really. Like, yes, relative to your competitors. But, if the cost of growing potatoes is ten cents per potato, and then I make something that can produce potatoes for one cent then I'd expect everyone to just have more potatoes. This would drive down the cost of potatoes, because the supply would be saturated eventually, but AI is supposed to…
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Press widely reports Slok's findings
TechCrunch, Bloomberg, Business Insider and Semafor published stories on the Apollo analysis, intensifying investor focus on AI spending just ahead of Big Tech earnings.
“Mainstream corporate America is pulling back and starting to view token spending not as a source of growth but as a cost center that weighs on margins.”
— Torsten Slok -
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SLOK: “.. Revenue per worker is rising for the Mag 7 but is flat for the S&P 493. .. Mainstream corporate America is pulling back and starting to view token spending not as a source of growth but as a cost center that weighs on margins.” @bloomberg.com
2 more of the top 3 · 25 posts in this stretch
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This analyst's report from Apollo about AI uses the term "S&P 493" to refer to the "S&P 500 minus the Mag 7" - because if you take out the AI companies, the S&P 500 is tanking. https://www. apollo.com/wealth/insights-new s/insights/daily-spark/no-signs-of-ai-payoff-outside-the-tech-sector
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The economy has many different resources with different supplies available. Making the supply of one resource infinite may sound like a huge win, but nothing is dependent on a single resource, everything requires a combination – just like in board game economies, you can't win by only producing wood.AI represents some weird intelligence-like…
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Social media amplifies Slok's 'zero payoff' finding
Finance-focused accounts on X and Bluesky spread the Apollo finding rapidly, framing it as evidence the promised AI productivity boom has not materialized beyond the tech sector.
“493 out of 500 companies in the S&P 500 saw no benefit from adopting AI...”
— @puckrin -
APOLLO: AI HAS DELIVERED “ZERO PAYOFF” OUTSIDE BIG TECH Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok warns that massive AI spending has yet to deliver measurable productivity gains across corporate America. Revenue per worker and profit margins are rising for the Magnificent Seven but
2 more of the top 3 · 29 posts in this stretch
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Despite massive investments and widespread hype around artificial intelligence, the technology has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech. Revenue per worker is rising for the Mag 7 but is flat for the S&P 493. And there are still no signs of AI boosting productivity growth https://www. apollo.com/wealth/insights-new…
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I have worked in multiple companies where the internally developed software was central to the business success, yet it was handled in an extremely bad way, preventing it from using even a small percentage of its potential. The (good) developers were not the main problem there, but the management. The management did constantly override technical…
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Apollo's Slok publishes 'No Signs of AI Payoff Outside the Tech Sector'
Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok released a Daily Spark research note arguing AI has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech, with flat revenue per worker, flat margins, and no productivity gains for the S&P 493.
“Despite massive investments and widespread hype around artificial intelligence, the technology has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech.”
— Torsten Slok, Apollo Chief Economist -
first by Demokratis.co.id, 14d ago · also HN Best, HN Frontpage, PPC Land, Bloomberg
4 more headlines
- No Signs of AI Payoff Outside the Tech Sector HN Best · 14d ago
- Apollo Says AI Has Shown ‘Zero’ Payoff Outside Tech PYMNTS.com · 14d ago
- Apollo finds zero AI payoff outside tech as S&P 493 margins stay near 10% PPC Land · 14d ago
- Apollo's Slok Says AI Has Delivered Zero Payoff Outside of Tech Bloomberg · 14d ago
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first by Indian Express, 13d ago · also Seeking Alpha, Yahoo Finance, Futurism
3 more headlines
- Apollo’s Slok says AI has delivered 'zero payoff' outside tech Seeking Alpha · 13d ago
- Apollo exec says AI has ‘zero financial payoff’ beyond tech sector Yahoo Finance · 12d ago
- Top Economist Finds That AI Has Provided "Zero Financial Payoff" to Companies Outside Tech Futurism · 12d ago
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Here's the data for US personal consumption expenditures which comprise 2/3rds of the GDP:U.S. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (Q2 2026 BEA DATA)==============(In USD Billions)TOTAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES $21,993.2 100.0% SERVICES $15,131.8 68.8% - Housing and Utilities $3,801.2 17.3% - Health Care $3,551.6 16.1% - Financial Services…
2 more of the top 3 · 33 posts in this stretch
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Apollo’s chief economist finds that there is still no measurable impact of AI adoption on corporate America outside of big tech. Revenue per employee and profit margins are rising for the Magnificent Seven but flat for the other 493 S&P 500 companies. The AI industry is making money selling AI, but its customers aren’t yet seeing any payoff…
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I have mixed experience. AI has helped me investigate issues faster and easier. Connecting Splunk, Datadog, and other tools has been great. Anything else varies wildly. It's great to making sure the changes has no side effects. But writing Specs? Writing Jira tickets? Writing big code changes? It's awful. I hate reading AI generated specs. They…
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- 1 day quiet
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Tech selloff deepens on AI capex worries before earnings
Big Tech shares sold off as investors scrutinized AI spending plans, with Meta's roughly $825 billion decade-long spending plan unsettling markets even as Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon were seen as better positioned.
“Markets want evidence that AI investments are generating revenue.”
— Bloomberg Markets newsletter -
first by Los Angeles Times, 14d ago · also Japan Times, Bloomberg
1 more headline
- AI spending fears threaten to swamp Big Tech’s strong earnings Japan Times · 13d ago
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first by Seeking Alpha, 12d ago
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Economist flags AI industry's debt load worrying investors
Ahead of the Apollo note, reporting highlighted that the AI sector's growing debts were making investors nervous, part of a building backdrop of market anxiety over AI spending.
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2 outlets AI Spending Isn’t Enough for Investors
first by Bloomberg Markets, 17d ago · also Business Insider
1 more headline
- Meta and Tesla Q3 reports show why Big Tech investors face an AI spending catch-22 Business Insider · 16d ago
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What people are saying 16 voices from 5 sites · best of 112 · verbatim
- Will Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft earnings this week show evidence that AI spending is translating into revenue growth?
- Is the 'S&P 493' framing itself distorted by the fact that excluding the Mag 7 makes the rest of the index look weaker than it otherwise would?
- Oct 28
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米Apolloのチーフエコノミストは、大手テック7社を除くS&P500の493社で、利益率も従業員1人あたり売上も横ばいで、AIが生産性を上げた形跡は見えないと指摘しました。「ビジネスでの知性の大半は判断で、AIは説明責任や信頼、不文律を理解しない」とも書いています（TechCrunch）。 https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/25/ai-delivers-zero-financial-payoff-to-most-companies-according-to-apollo-economist/ #AI #経済
- Oct 26
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techcrunch.com/2026/10/25/a... Private Equity firm Apollo sees no point in “AI” in all but big tech companies.
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Yeah many companies could have grown already if others were willing to pay for it. I'm also rather seeing customers wanting less software, fewer licenses and expecting more features at a lower price. We're ourselves trying to reduce duplicate licenses, dropping services, reducing seats for Salesforce and friends whenever possible etc. Just like in…
- Oct 25
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UB's building a data center right in the middle of campus for this
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The risk is not Google or Microsoft going bankrupt but realizing offering AI at massive loss is not sustainable. The will come a point when CFO will step up and either close the AI projects and write it off as a total loss or increase prices causing the majoraty to either cancel or switch to open wights models and local ot rented hosting. So far…
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"Despite massive investments & widespread hype around # ArtificialIntelligence , the technology has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech... there are still no signs of AI boosting productivity growth... With no impact on the bottom line, mainstream corporate America is pulling back & starting to view token spending…
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Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, Apollo: "AI may be a great calculator, but in business, intelligence is mostly judgment. Judgment depends on context, and the answer varies with which human or which model you ask. Perhaps most importantly, AI does not understand accountability, trust, culture, unwritten rules, ethical trade-offs or fairness, all of…
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You edited your comment I after I responded. You only had one listed in your reply to me. Also you added back the other ML things that are not LLMs that were out long before venture capital build up. Still bot slop grammar and diction. You’re making no sense too, because I did have a counter argument. I don’t have to make counterpoints here…
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well well well. https://www. apollo.com/wealth/insights-new s/insights/daily-spark/no-signs-of-ai-payoff-outside-the-tech-sector
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Remember that AI productivity boom they were all promising?? Well, according to Apollo, there are NO signs of this through the broader economy. The only sector that benefits is tech. Read that again. 493 out of 500 companies in the S&P 500 saw no benefit from adopting AI...
- Oct 24
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Tech sector has always been ultra-fast at adapting new technologies, other sectors will take between 5 to 15 years. My partner was recently working for an insurance company that had only a few years ago moved away from their paper files to digital, and even then still had rooms of files that they'll never move to digital. Her job will eventually…
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the AI payoff debate is having its 1987 moment. Apollo's chief economist put out charts this week: revenue per worker and profit margins rising for the Mag 7, flat for the other 493 companies in the S&P 500. no visible boost to productivity growth yet. his read: outside tech, companies are startin...
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Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok just published a gloomy report on AI. imo, other signals I'm watching don't really support these. > Slok says mainstream firms don't need the latest model and won't pay for it, and with no bottom-line gain they now treat token spending as a cost center that wei...
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I don't see why a payoff would have appeared yet. Many (but certainly not all) software companies have increased their output without hiring more people. But having software with more features doesn't necessarily drive immediate productivity gains in the rest of the economy. It will take time for those benefits to percolate. We've only had access…
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When I tried to use CoPilot at my day job, I set up a prompt to process scans of checks and invoices (with the MICR account bar code line covered w/ a pen so that there was no PII), it would sort of work for 20 files at a time to write a .bat file command to rename the source image based on the content of the check and invoice --- this removed the…
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> As an example, take a factory that was built around hyrdo-power like a grain mill. You can't just take an electric motor and drop it in in place of the water wheel.Your chosen example is rather more fitting for the opposite case. Dropping an electric motor is pretty easy, you just attach it to the other side of the axle. But there is really no…