Satellite data shows Atlantic current system slowing 18% in 40 years
New measurements of heat flux provide the strongest evidence yet that the AMOC is weakening, raising concerns about catastrophic collapse by 2060.
What to know
- Satellite measurements show the AMOC heat flux declined 18% over 40 years; the circulation itself weakened 14% in 30 years.
- Independent scientists call this the strongest evidence yet of long-term AMOC decline, superior to earlier buoy measurements and sea-surface temperature analyses.
- Freshwater from melting Greenland ice is diluting the salty water that drives the current; some models suggest collapse by 2060 would bring 'ice age' winters to Europe.
- The study is undergoing peer review; previous research disagreed on whether AMOC weakening could be confirmed from available data.
Individual action is insufficient; systemic climate mitigation and adaptation require coordinated global policy pressure.
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“Globally, consistently pushing politicians for action on climate mitigation (reducing emissions) and adaptation (preparing for the regional impacts of climate change) are both important and impactful.”
TheMoniker · Reddit ↗
Regional adaptation and geographic positioning (e.g., proximity to climate-stable zones) may be more practical responses than global emissions reduction.
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“Temporarily collapse as they adapt to new climate zones. Good reason to get in good with Canada.”
Lost-Inevitable42 · Reddit ↗
“Some research suggests the AMOC could collapse as soon as 2060, plunging Europe into 'ice age' winters with stronger storms and widespread drought.”
New Scientist, Science reporting · New Scientist ↗
Richard Allan Lead researcher, University of ReadingNeil Fraser Marine scientist, Scottish Association for Marine ScienceDavid Thornalley Researcher, University College London
How it unfolded 2 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlespostscomments
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Independent scientist calls findings strongest AMOC weakening evidence to date
Neil Fraser at the Scottish Association for Marine Science, commenting on the peer-review study, states that the heat flux approach provides stronger evidence than previous methods because it measures a variable closer to what drives AMOC circulation. The new satellite-based methodology represents the first time AMOC weakening has been estimated using heat fluxes calculated partly from satellite measurements.
“This is some of the strongest evidence so far that the AMOC has weakened over the last 40 years.”
— Neil Fraser, Scottish Association for Marine Science -
Personalized advice would be pretty difficult to give. We don't yet know what the likelihood of a collapse versus a reduction in the AMOC is. Globally, consistently pushing politicians for action on climate mitigation (reducing emissions) and adaptation (preparing for the regional impacts of climate change) are both important and impactful.
2 more of the top 3 · 7 posts in this stretch
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I don't watch shows like the walking dead and thing gee, that's the life for me. I'm that scene where the protagonist hit up a house for a tin of dog food and find a zombie couple chained to their bed who offed themselves together.
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Someone (likely a bot) argued if we built more data centers we could cure cancer, i replied so if we can build enough datacenters we'll find a cure for the lung cancer we'll all develop
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- 1 day quiet
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Study finds AMOC heat flux decreased 18% in 40 years using satellite data
Researchers at the University of Reading led by Richard Allan analyzed satellite measurements of heat flux from the North Atlantic to calculate that the AMOC has transported 18 percent less heat over the past 40 years. Using the first decade of satellite data as a baseline, they found the circulation itself has declined 14 percent over 30 years.
“We expect the AMOC to deliver heat northwards, and then that heat to come out of the top of the ocean into the atmosphere, and so if one of those things is changing, we expect the other one to change.”
— Neil Fraser, Scottish Association for Marine Science -
first by New Scientist, 13d ago
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What people are saying 4 voices from 1 site · best of 7 · verbatim
- Oct 28
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Temporarily collapse as they adapt to new climate zones. Good reason to get in good with Canada.
- Oct 27
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I think the whole being an island thing is a factor. Also the monsoon like weather it's already starting to get. Farming is pretty f*cked already too.
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248 billion living to modern western standards. Factory chickens we can get up to quintillions. Source: Some lecture I had in uni a decade ago pursuing my degree in geology
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if the US had gone truly green, China would have followed to stay competitive. If the UK/EU had gone gree, maybe the US would have done it, if....no thats where the trouble starts