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ClimateQuiet 10d · day 12

IPCC carbon removal projections face scathing criticism as unrealistic

Climate analysts say the IPCC's assumption of massive future carbon removal lacks scientific basis and risks enabling dangerous delay.

newest coverage 10d agosummary written 11d ago4 pieces282 likes & upvotes9 comments BlueskyMastodon

What to know

  • IPCC recent scenarios project carbon removal will jump from 0.002 to 10–30 billion metric tons annually by 2100—a 5,000–15,000-fold increase with no documented scientific basis.
  • Project Drawdown charges the projections are speculation dressed as science that risk enabling 'predatory delay' by promising future technology solutions instead of demanding immediate emissions cuts.
  • Current novel carbon removal operates at minimal scale despite decades of investment, removing only what equals 17 minutes of global annual emissions.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate assessment bodyProject Drawdown Climate analysis organization

How it unfolded 1 development · click the chart to see its coverage posts

Peak 1 piece in 3h at Oct 27, 10 PM; 4 pieces over 12 days (4 posts) Oct 27, 10 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — Bluesky 1Oct 28, 1 AM — quietOct 28, 4 AM — quietOct 28, 7 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Oct 28, 10 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Bluesky 1Oct 28, 1 PM — quietOct 28, 4 PM — quietOct 28, 7 PM — quietOct 28, 10 PM — quietOct 29, 1 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Oct 29, 4 AM — quietOct 29, 7 AM — quietOct 29, 10 AM — quietOct 29, 1 PM — quietOct 29, 4 PM — quietOct 29, 7 PM — quietOct 29, 10 PM — quietOct 30, 1 AM — quietOct 30, 4 AM — quietOct 30, 7 AM — quietOct 30, 10 AM — quietOct 30, 1 PM — quietOct 30, 4 PM — quietOct 30, 7 PM — quietOct 30, 10 PM — quietOct 31, 1 AM — quietOct 31, 4 AM — quietOct 31, 7 AM — quietOct 31, 10 AM — quietOct 31, 1 PM — quietOct 31, 4 PM — quietOct 31, 7 PM — quietOct 31, 10 PM — quietNov 1, 1 AM — quietNov 1, 3 AM — quietNov 1, 6 AM — quietNov 1, 9 AM — quietNov 1, 12 PM — quietNov 1, 3 PM — quietNov 1, 6 PM — quietNov 1, 9 PM — quietNov 2, 12 AM — quietNov 2, 3 AM — quietNov 2, 6 AM — quietNov 2, 9 AM — quietNov 2, 12 PM — quietNov 2, 3 PM — quietNov 2, 6 PM — quietNov 2, 9 PM — quietNov 3, 12 AM — quietNov 3, 3 AM — quietNov 3, 6 AM — quietNov 3, 9 AM — quietNov 3, 12 PM — quietNov 3, 3 PM — quietNov 3, 6 PM — quietNov 3, 9 PM — quietNov 4, 12 AM — quietNov 4, 3 AM — quietNov 4, 6 AM — quietNov 4, 9 AM — quietNov 4, 12 PM — quietNov 4, 3 PM — quietNov 4, 6 PM — quietNov 4, 9 PM — quietNov 5, 12 AM — quietNov 5, 3 AM — quietNov 5, 6 AM — quietNov 5, 9 AM — quietNov 5, 12 PM — quietNov 5, 3 PM — quietNov 5, 6 PM — quietNov 5, 9 PM — quietNov 6, 12 AM — quietNov 6, 3 AM — quietNov 6, 6 AM — quietNov 6, 9 AM — quietNov 6, 12 PM — quietNov 6, 3 PM — quietNov 6, 6 PM — quietNov 6, 9 PM — quietYesterday, 12 AM — quietYesterday, 3 AM — quietYesterday, 6 AM — quietYesterday, 9 AM — quietYesterday, 12 PM — quietYesterday, 3 PM — quietYesterday, 6 PM — quietYesterday, 9 PM — quietToday, 12 AM — quietToday, 3 AM — quietToday, 6 AM — quietToday, 9 AM — quiet 1
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  1. 1

    Critics warn IPCC projections enable "predatory delay" on emissions cuts

    The analysis argues that treating speculative future carbon removal as a reliable climate solution creates dangerous incentives to postpone definitive emissions reductions. The piece characterizes the IPCC's approach as "bedtime stories about the future, complete with fictional numbers" that distract from proven climate actions.

    “Magical thinking about massive levels of carbon removal can fuel a kind of 'predatory delay,' where the promise of future technologies (which typically never arrive) is favored over definitive action today.”
    — Project Drawdown
    • globalecoguy.bsky.social

      The IPCC assumes that we will see *massive* increases in carbon removal. This is reckless, unwarranted, and irresponsible.

      globalecoguy.bsky.socialBluesky11d ago193▲view on Bluesky ↗
    2 more of the top 3 · 4 posts in this stretch
    • gerrymcgovern@mastodon.green

      "Projections for future carbon removal are unrealistically optimistic. Some climate scenarios project removing 10–30 billion metric tons of CO₂ annually by 2100 – a roughly 5,000- to 15,000-fold increase from today – with no scientific justification." https:// drawdown.org/insights/heres-wh…

      gerrymcgovern@mastodon.greenMastodon10d ago13▲view on Mastodon ↗
    • globalecoguy.bsky.social

      Scenarios used by the IPCC assume that we will see *massive* increases in carbon removal. But the problem is there is no *real evidence* to justify these rosy scenarios. And many, many reasons to be skeptical. I think this is reckless, unwarranted, and irresponsible.

      globalecoguy.bsky.socialBluesky11d ago76▲view on Bluesky ↗
    all of them →
  2. background

    Analysis details gap between IPCC projections and current carbon removal capacity — The Drawdown article documents that novel carbon removal currently operates at just 0.002 billion metric tons per year despite decades of effort and billions in investment—equivalent to 17 minutes of annual global emissions. This contrasts sharply with IPCC scenarios projecting removal at 5,000–15,000 times current levels.

  3. background

    Project Drawdown attacks IPCC carbon removal assumptions as reckless speculation — An analysis published by Project Drawdown critiques recent IPCC projections assuming 10–30 billion metric tons of annual carbon dioxide removal by 2100, calling them unwarranted and scientifically baseless. The piece argues these scenarios lack empirical evidence and rest on no testable hypotheses.

What people are saying 1 voices from 1 site · best of 4 · verbatim